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市场调查报告书

锂的全球市场:到2030年的展望,第17版

Lithium: Outlook to 2030, 17th Edition

出版商 Roskill Information Services 商品编码 942689
出版日期 内容资讯 英文
商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内
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锂的全球市场:到2030年的展望,第17版 Lithium: Outlook to 2030, 17th Edition
出版日期: 将在2020年08月10日内容资讯: 英文
简介

碳酸锂和氢氧化锂的价格,整个2019年持续表现下降趋势,碳酸锂的每月平均价格从1月到12月之间降低了36%。 2020年第一季,每碳酸锂的每月平均价格吨低于7,000美元,由于锂离子电池产业的需求剧增与未来供给的不确定性,2014年以后一直持续的上升基调告一段落。2020年前半期,由于新型冠状病毒感染疾病(COVID-19)的大流行病伴随的封锁全球地销售台数减少,锂的需求扩大也呈现短期性停顿状态。但长远来看,今后10年锂需求预计将持续踏实成长,到2030年超过每年18%的成长率持续扩大。

本报告提供全球锂市场调查,供应链的流程,全球生产与消费状况,生产成本,国际的交易,今后展望,生产国和企业的简介,消费趋势等资讯。

目录

  • 1.摘要整理
  • 2.供应链的流程图
  • 3.全球生产情形
  • 4.生产成本
  • 5.全球消费情形
  • 6.国际性交易
  • 7.价格
  • 8.展望
  • 9.背景
  • 10.永续性
  • 11.生产国的简介
  • 12. 企业的简介
  • 13.各用途的消费情形
目录

Price support

Lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices continued to display a downward trend throughout the majority of 2019, with monthly average lithium carbonate prices falling 36% between January and December. Trends in Q1 2020 have seen monthly average prices fall further to <US$7,000/t Li2CO3 for the first time since 2014, eroding price increases caused by forecast strong demand growth in the lithium-ion battery industry and uncertainty over future supply. Just as higher prices incentivised the rapid commissioning of production capacity throughout the supply chain, the slide in lithium prices has stressed almost all producers from mined products to refined compounds, causing output curtailments or suspensions.

The rise, and fall, of automotive batteries

Demand for lithium compounds from the rechargeable battery industry has displayed strong growth throughout the 2010s, with the increasing use of larger Li-ion batteries in automotive applications. In 2019, rechargeable batteries accounted for 54% of total lithium demand, almost entirely from Li-ion battery technologies. Though the rapid rise of hybrid and electric vehicle sales has brought attention to the requirement for lithium compounds, falling sales in H2 2019 in China, the largest market for EV's, and a global reduction in sales caused by lockdowns related to the COVID-19 pandemic in H1 2020 have put the short-term 'breaks' on lithium demand growth, impacting demand from both battery and industrial applications. Longer term scenarios continue to show strong growth for lithium demand over the coming decade however, with Roskill forecasting demand to exceed 1.0Mt LCE in 2027, with growth in excess of 18%py to 2030.

Carbonate versus hydroxide

As battery applications extend their dominance of lithium demand, the market is expected to become more focussed on providing products to meet specifications for automotive batteries. The shift towards high-nickel cathode materials, to increase battery energy density, is accelerating demand growth for lithium hydroxide, though its cost premium over lithium carbonate has made some consumers reluctant to switch feedstock. Lithium hydroxide is expected to become the dominant lithium chemistry consumed, though the balance between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide remains highly dependent on lithium-ion cathode requirements.

Supply disruption

A correction in the oversupply of mined lithium products observed in 2018 and 2019 is on-going, with in excess of 30,000t LCE contained in spodumene concentrates estimated to be held in stockpiles at end-2019. Continued weak spodumene concentrate prices have caused lithium mineral operations to target reducing production costs through improved recovery, strip ratios and in-situ grades. While lower lithium prices have impacted sales revenue at lithium brine and mineral conversion facilities, production cost have remained largely stable in 2019. This has been largely down to major brine operations in Chile benefiting from price linked 'sliding-scale' royalty payments, and mineral conversion plants benefiting from lower raw material costs and improved feedstock quality.

Outlook

Longer term, further additions to lithium production capacity for mined and refined lithium products will be required to keep pace with demand growth, led by battery applications. Though schedule pipeline capacity appears sufficient to meet this demand growth, challenges and set-backs in developing, financing and commissioning lithium mining and refining operations are expected. Even major incumbent lithium producers are at risk of failing to meet production targets and expansion plans, highlighting the technical and financial hurdles involved with bringing sizable volumes of new capacity online. Roskill maintains the view that future refined lithium supply will remain tight, with a period of sustained supply deficit in the mid-2020s.

Roskill experts will answer your questions:

  • How are lithium prices impacting existing lithium producers?
  • Which companies are the major lithium producers?
  • Will the slowdown in EV sales impact long-term lithium demand growth?
  • Where will new sources of mined and refined lithium supply come from?
  • How will prices of key lithium products perform to 2030?
  • What is the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the lithium industry?
  • Which lithium products will be required by key end-use applications?
  • How important will secondary sources of lithium products become?

Subscribe now and receive:

  • Detailed report with ten-year forecasts for demand, supply and prices
  • Access to the report via Roskill Interactive for up to 5 users
  • Quarterly updates to keep you up to speed on our latest view of the industry
  • Access to Roskill specialists for key market queries
  • Option to download tables and graphs from the report
  • A summary PowerPoint of key report findings

Table of Contents

  • 1. Executive Summary
  • 2. Supply Chain Flowchart
  • 3. World Production
  • 4. Production Costs
  • 5. World Consumption
  • 6. International Trade
  • 7. Prices
  • 8. Outlook
  • 9. Background
  • 10. Sustainability
  • 11. Country Profiles
  • 12. Company Profiles
  • 13. Consumption by First Use