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市场调查报告书

钒:到2029年的展望 (第18版)

Vanadium: Outlook to 2029, 18th Edition

出版商 Roskill Information Services 商品编码 930098
出版日期 内容资讯 英文
商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内
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钒:到2029年的展望 (第18版) Vanadium: Outlook to 2029, 18th Edition
出版日期: 将在2020年05月31日内容资讯: 英文
简介

五氧化钒(V2O5)的价格2018年11月每1磅暴涨为33.9美元,不过,新的钢筋规格和来自钒氧化还原电池(VRB)的高期待未实现,价格2020年1月每1磅回到6美元。

本报告提供全球钒市场相关调查分析,展现全球生产、消费趋势,生产成本,国际交易,价格,今后展望等资讯。

第1章 摘要整理

第2章 钒的流程图

第3章 全球生产

第4章 全球消费

第5章 国际交易

第6章 价格

第7章 展望

第8章 背景

第9章 国家简介

第10章 最终用途

第11章 企业简介

目录

It has been a roller-coaster ride for the vanadium market over 2018 and 2019. Vanadium pentoxide (V2O5) prices spiked to US$33.9/lb in November 2018, yet high expectations from new rebar standards and vanadium redox batteries (VRBs) failed to materialise and prices fell back to US$6/lb in January 2020, erasing two years of gains.

The implementation of the new rebar standard, which implies a higher micro-alloying content, in China has been erratic with no systematic enforcement. In addition, forecast demand was impacted by a higher than expected substitution away from ferrovanadium to ferroniobium, triggered by a widening price differential. Although ferrovanadium and ferroniobium are back to price parity and certain benefits pertain to the use of vanadium, Roskill believes that a full reversal is unlikely. Once mills are accustomed to niobium and have made the technical changes, they are unlikely to fully switch back, and Roskill estimates a portion of the micro-alloying demand from rebar has been captured by ferroniobium.

Despite the substitution, vanadium demand growth in 2019 remained strong, driven primarily by a large increase in China's steel production. Demand growth was matched by a rising supply from both slag and coalstone producers, keeping the market sufficiently supplied. The market looks to have returned into balance in 2020, although the coronavirus (Covid-19) is expected to impact the supply chain and broader global economy.

The medium-term outlook for vanadium will be shaped by several factors affecting both demand and supply. After two decades of a rising steel production, a maturing Chinese economy will translate into a flattening steel production which will gradually slow demand for vanadium. Roskill's view is that China's crude steel production is approaching its peak in the mid-2020s. The development of VRB technology appears to be a longer-term possibility to offer a new major source of demand, although Roskill expects this to be limited in scale over the 2020s.

Feedstock supply from China is forecast to show a limited increase as slag producers are getting closer to full capacity while coalstone production remains dependant on technical, environmental and economic factors. Yet, vanadium supply may face a structural change following the new IMO regulations in place since January 2020, which cut sulphur content in bunker fuels. The regulation will translate into an increasing amount of spent catalysts produced by refineries, which will have to be either recycled or disposed. Given a less sustainable outlook for the latter, the share of vanadium produced from this secondary source is set to increase significantly in coming years and production costs are likely to decrease with more oil residues becoming available. The ramp of secondary vanadium supply will be the main source of competition for other new vanadium projects looking to bring product to market.

The developments in supply and demand outlined above have and will continue to reshape the vanadium market over the next decade. Excluding any significant demand increase from VRBs, Roskill forecasts that the current trajectory in the market will see a significant ramp up in surplus supply by the middle of the 2020s.

Roskill's ‘Vanadium: Outlook to 2029, 18th Edition report’ analyses the causes, consequences and magnitude of the incoming changes in terms of supply, demand and future pricing structure. Roskill's 10-year outlook also assesses whether existing producers can increase output, the viability of new projects under development entering production, and the likelihood of projects on care and maintenance to restart. With thorough coverage of historical trends and detailed ten-year forecasts, Roskill's report is the most comprehensive vanadium report on the market. It provides a full analysis of supply, demand, trade, and prices, complete with trends and risks geared specifically to the needs of industry participants, traders and investors.

Roskill experts will answer your questions:

  • Who are the major producers of vanadium and how is China's vanadium production evolving?
  • How will the new IMO 2020 regulations impact vanadium supply through spent catalysts recycling?
  • How is vanadium demand impacted by regulation and China's peaking steel production and what is the outlook for vanadium redox batteries?
  • How ferroniobium acts as a substitute to ferrovanadium and what are the limits of this substitution?
  • What is the outlook for vanadium prices in the short and in the longer term and what are the upside and downside risks?

Subscribe now and receive:

  • Detailed report with ten-year forecasts for demand, supply and prices
  • Access to the report online through Roskill Interactive for up to 5 users
  • Access to the analysts for discussion around report content
  • Quarterly updates to keep you up to speed on our latest view of the industry
  • Downloadable tables and charts from the report
  • A summary PowerPoint of key report findings

Table of Contents

  • 1. Executive Summary
  • 2. Vanadium Flowchart
  • 3. World Production
  • 4. World Consumption
  • 5. International Trade
  • 6. Prices
  • 7. Outlook
  • 8. Background
  • 9. Country Profiles
  • 10. End-uses
  • 11. Company Profiles