Cover Image
市场调查报告书

能源机会乌云密布:评估配电网的间歇性管理技术

Cloudy with a Chance of Energy: Evaluating Technologies to Manage Grid Intermittency

出版商 Lux Research 商品编码 252805
出版日期 内容信息 英文 33 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内
价格
本报告书已不再贩售
Back to Top
能源机会乌云密布:评估配电网的间歇性管理技术 Cloudy with a Chance of Energy: Evaluating Technologies to Manage Grid Intermittency
出版日期: 2012年09月18日 内容信息: 英文 33 Pages

本报告已在2018年07月02日停止出版

简介

由于再生能源对配电网产生影响,这是长期电力产业预测,但其影响有关可用性没有明确定义和定量。

本报告提供定义「间歇性」,风力及太阳能发电维持基本负载的最适合结构和整体电力数量的30%的纳入新兴技术的弹性发电考察,现今浮现的自动需求支持计划和天然气发电的支持法的成本优点和供给能力的限制的最新调查·分析信息汇整,为您概述为以下内容。

摘要整理

  • 作为间歇性对策,电力经营者需要按照需求曲线调整可再生能源发电
  • 均衡发电成本(levelized cost of electricity:LCOE)反映垂直集成电力成本最小化的配合措施的指标

市场展望

  • 间歇性再生能源为电力经营者带来的特有的课题
    • 尚未准备的配电网产生大混乱的发电的间歇性
    • 因风力·太阳能发电基础的急速成长不得不管理间歇性的经营者
  • 天然气,自动需求因应计划(autoDR),蓄电所利用的风力·太阳能发电的间歇性产生机制管理法
    • 在风力和太阳能之间大不相同的再生能源间歇性问题
    • 如果并用天然气,自动需求因应计划(autoDR),蓄电,将可以有效进行间歇性管理
  • 间歇性缓和度根据原因及资源的适应性而有所不同
    • 再生能源对配电网产生的影响的适当应对措施寻求准确度
    • 影响经营者的间歇性管理能力的许多因素
  • 市场展望的结论

分析

  • 了解该技术的生命周期成本,需要把实效性能列入考虑
    • 只靠资本成本不能判断各技术的均衡发电成本
  • 天然气已经是确立的资源,自动需求支持计划和蓄电将担负未来的电力技术
    • 以本公司制成的年度1日平均负载数值模式计算间歇性相关成本
    • 受气候左右的季节及一日的需求简介
  • 分析的结论

未来发展预测

关于Lux Research

卷末附注

目录
Product Code: LRSGI-R-12-3

Utilities have long known that renewables will impact the grid, but have yet to define and quantify the impact in any usable way. In this report, we define intermittency and determine the optimal mix of baseload and flexible generation coupled with emerging technologies required to integrate more than 30% wind and solar generation into grid. Emerging automated demand response programs are the lowest cost option, but are limited to being capable of managing only the highest 2% of demand. At current natural gas prices, electricity can be generated by natural gas power plants cheaper than it can be stored and shifted by any grid storage technology. However, unbridled natural gas use with 30% renewables and no storage will unavoidably result in the curtailment of renewably generated electricity. To minimize curtailment, utilities will have to install enough grid storage to capture and shift at least 0.5% of the total electricity generated over the course of the year.

Table of Contents

  • Executive Summary
      • To Plan for Intermittency, Utilities Must Align Renewable Generation Profiles with Demand Curves
      • The Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) Mirrors a Vertically Integrated Utility's Cost-minimization Approach
  • Landscape
    • Intermittent Renewable Energy Resources Present Unique Challenges to Utilities
      • Intermittent Generation Will Wreak Havoc on an Unprepared Grid
      • The Rapidly Growing Base of Wind and Solar is Forcing Operators to Manage Intermittency
    • We Focus on How the Intermittency Caused by Wind and Solar can be Managed by Natural Gas, autoDR, and Energy Storage
      • The Intermittency Issues Caused by Renewables Vary Significantly between Wind and Solar
      • Natural Gas, autoDR, and Energy Storage Together can Effectively Manage Intermittency
    • Intermittency Mitigation Varies between its Causes and the Responsiveness of a Resource
      • A High Level of Granularity is Required to Adequately Assess the Impact of Renewables on the Power Grid
      • Numerous Factors Impact the Operator's Ability to Manage Intermittency
    • Landscape Conclusions
  • Analysis
    • Understanding Technology Lifetime Costs Takes into Account its Performance Capabilities
      • Capital Costs Alone Do Not Dictate the LCOE of Each Technology
    • Natural Gas is the Status Quo, but AutoDR and Storage will Shoulder the Future Load
      • To Assess the Costs Associated with Intermittency, We Modeled Average Daily Loads throughout the Year
      • Climate Dictates Seasonal and Daily Demand Profiles
    • Analysis Conclusions
  • Outlook
  • About Lux Research
  • Endnotes
Back to Top