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电力巴士的全球市场 (2018-2038年):预测·技术蓝图·企业评估

Electric Buses 2019-2029: Forecasts, Technology Roadmap, Company Assessment

出版商 IDTechEx Ltd. 商品编码 235006
出版日期 内容资讯 英文 205 Slides
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电力巴士的全球市场 (2018-2038年):预测·技术蓝图·企业评估 Electric Buses 2019-2029: Forecasts, Technology Roadmap, Company Assessment
出版日期: 2019年08月27日内容资讯: 英文 205 Slides
简介

本报告提供全球电力巴士市场相关调查,提供全球公共运输情形,汽车产业,电力巴士动态,与主要地区·国家的电力巴士市场的状况·销售趋势,及技术趋势那个展望等分析,主要的混合巴士厂商·纯电力巴士制造商简介,为您概述为以下内容。

第1章 摘要整理·总论

第2章 简介

  • 繁荣,停车及不良规划
  • 全球情形:公共运输
  • 为了抢救的技术
    • 电气化,自主式,共享
    • 协同效应
    • 4个要素的影响
    • 失败不论必须有一贯性的强力政策
  • 废气会造成什么?
  • 电力巴士动态
  • 汽车产业分析
    • 全球汽车生产台数
    • 新商用车登记台数或销售数几乎没有变化,但在东亚强力成长
    • 全球汽车厂商排行榜:不同生产台数
    • 大型巴士销售记录展现些许增长
    • 最大的巴士厂商:不同台数

第3章 中国的电力运输巴士,客运(COACH),接驳车(Shuttle)

  • Yutong及中国的巴士状况
  • 中国采用最尖端科技及巴士技术
  • 中国的电力巴士上广泛的技术进步
  • 中国的大型·中型巴士销售
  • 中国的混合巴士销售·新闻
  • 中国的E巴士销售台数: Yutong,Zhongtong 及 BYD 强力成长
  • 业绩比较
  • 第13次5年计画 (混合 & 电力巴士)
  • 中国的充电站·巴士津贴比率
  • 电动自行车的限制有助于巴士
  • BYD:最惊人的全球发展之中国电力巴士厂商

第4章 印度的电器运输巴士,客运(COACH),接驳车(Shuttle)

第5章 南北美洲的电器运输巴士,客运(COACH),接驳车(Shuttle)

第6章 北美

第7章 欧洲

第8章 校车

  • 北美
  • 中国:可能性大,还没有多少
  • 校车:美国与中国的比较

第9章 电力巴士技术及其未来

  • 动力传动
  • 混合巴士的价值链
  • 纯电动动力系统更简单,后期可绕过许多一线供应商
  • 在纯电动车中,电力电子也比电池更重要
  • 结构电子将运用到巴士
  • 许多设计解决方案持续用于相同类型的客运
  • UITP 及 MB :巴士技术的摘要
  • 更小型的巴士出现
  • 自主式巴士及巴士-计程车
  • 巴士电动动力马达的背景
  • 动力电池
  • 混合巴士推动超级电容器
  • 纯电动客车推动超级电容器
  • 软体及服务:Citymapper 智慧巴士范例
  • 自主式
  • 电池的充电
  • 能源独立:增加巴士可行范围
  • 急进性的革新
  • 能源自给型电动车:EIV

第10章 86家混合巴士厂商

第11章 80家纯电力巴士厂商

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目录

"As people move to cities, car sales peak but electric bus sales rise to over $275 billion by 2029."

Electric Buses Reinvented: $279 Billion Market.

This report of over 200 information-packed pages is a complete rewrite of the annual IDTechEx report on electric buses. Prepared by respected analysts, it benchmarks buses and other forms of electric vehicle and technologies to reveal the tipping points and radical innovations arriving soon. Daimler and Toyota have recently instituted crash programs on pure electric vehicles: China has done a U turn on hybrid buses that do not plug in. Implications? See the league table of largest EV makers and how more and more of them make buses. The killer blow for new vehicles is lower price up front: see when each bus type hits this.

Technologies are carefully explained with pros and cons with a unique technology roadmap to 2038. Only in this report do you see the full picture of where we are headed - even to energy independent buses (one already on sale) and then energy positive buses (we propose a design). See how they will be leveraging technologies going commercial next year outside the bus industry. Learn how the bus is being reinvented as many other things from the trolley bus that works pure electric where there is no catenary to the traffic-straddling bus and many forms of road train from "Bus Rapid Transit" to "Autonomous Rail Transit" that does not use rails. Autonomy is a focus of the report, particularly explaining the design and future of the small merged car/taxi/buses being trialled - another new category.

In 2010 virtually all new buses had an internal combustion engine yet 20 years later very few will. Why? Implications for the value chain? As if that is not enough, most componentry, systems and bodywork is being radically changed. For example what comes after the monocoque body now replacing the chassis? Why is power electronics becoming more important than batteries? In this business, simply extrapolating the past is useless.

The approach is creative and predictive way beyond the blinkered view given by traditional box ticking market research. Ongoing Interviews are carried out globally by PhD level multilingual technologists. The Executive Summary and Conclusions clarifies the extreme melodrama of what is now happening. New infograms explain why car sales will peak globally and how buses benefit. Forecasts for 2019-2029 bus type and region explain major regional differences. Learn why 30 years of fuel cell bus trials continue whereas almost every type of bus is now available commercially as pure electric and hybrid without a fuel cell. Understand benefits and the future.

The Introduction explains how the move to cities boosts buses: many detailed graphs are presented. Learn efficiency of different modes in cities. Four key factors are shown to drive change in type and number of buses bought to 2040. See the issues of energy use, emissions, cost savings and progress to energy independence. See statistics for the commercial vehicle and bus business.

Chapter 3 China analyses its dominance and global rollout of electric buses. Yutong and BYD are profiled and others compared. Chapter 4 India appraises its recent decision to replace 150,000 diesel buses very quickly. Chapters 5 and 6 are Americas. Chapter 7 Europe.

Chapter 8 is School Buses: newly significant - numbers in the USA are large and, in China, potentially large. Statistics reveal many strong reasons for going autonomous. Chapter 9 is a tour de force of the technologies and their rapid change with reasons, predictions and more. Fuel cells, structural electronics, many new forms of power electronics, more motors per vehicle, autonomy, energy harvesting, supercapacitors replacing batteries, new charging options, software and services- it is all here with new examples.

Analyst access from IDTechEx

All report purchases include up to 30 minutes telephone time with an expert analyst who will help you link key findings in the report to the business issues you're addressing. This needs to be used within three months of purchasing the report.

Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

  • 1.1. Purpose of this report
  • 1.2. Why adopt buses?
  • 1.3. Types of bus currently on sale
  • 1.4. New types of bus entering the market are autonomous
  • 1.5. Buses population worldwide by types 2025
  • 1.6. Drivers and timing of bus electrification
  • 1.7. Benefits of pure electric bus powertrains and to some extent hybrid
  • 1.8. Electric bus leadership: focus on pure electric now
  • 1.9. China buses go global: cost advantages
  • 1.10. China cost advantage facilitates market share
  • 1.11. Timelines
    • 1.11.1. Bus technology timeline 2020-2040
    • 1.11.2. Pure electric bus delivery completion dates 2020-2040
    • 1.11.3. Predicting the electric bus killer blow of lower up-front price 2020-2040
  • 1.12. Electric bus market forecasts worldwide
    • 1.12.1. Electric bus market forecast 2019-2029 number (thousand)
    • 1.12.2. Electric bus market forecast 2019-2029 unit price $k
    • 1.12.3. Electric bus market forecast 2019-2029 $ billion market value
    • 1.12.4. Electric bus number by region 2029
  • 1.13. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2019
  • 1.14. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2020
  • 1.15. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2021
  • 1.16. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2022
  • 1.17. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2023/2024
  • 1.18. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2025/2026
  • 1.19. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2027/2028
  • 1.20. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2030
  • 1.21. Proliferations of bus types and crossovers
  • 1.22. Record bus range
  • 1.23. NTU Singapore and Volvo unveil world's first full size, autonomous electric bus

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. Prosperity, parking and bad planning
  • 2.2. Global situation: public transport
    • 2.2.1. Cities lead
    • 2.2.2. Dense cities use most public transport and cities are getting denser
    • 2.2.3. On-road transport in cities (where 80% of people will live) mainly buses: small buses now a focus
  • 2.3. More ambitious EV objectives drive radically new bus technologies
    • 2.3.1. Overview
    • 2.3.2. Multi-purposing
    • 2.3.3. Robotics
    • 2.3.4. Mobility as a Service MaaS
    • 2.3.5. Charging with vehicle moving and even energy independence
  • 2.4. EV key enabling technologies for 2019-2030
    • 2.4.1. Structural electronics
    • 2.4.2. Electric motor-generators
    • 2.4.3. Here come electrically smart structures
    • 2.4.4. New components and fewer components from electrification and structural electronics
    • 2.4.5. Traction battery systems including and battery charging and swapping
    • 2.4.6. Energy harvesting and regeneration
    • 2.4.7. Supercapacitors
    • 2.4.8. Fuel cells
    • 2.4.9. Power electronics
    • 2.4.10. Low power electronics, sensors and sensor fusion
    • 2.4.11. Software, connectivity, artificial intelligence
    • 2.4.12. How nine key enabling technologies are improving to serve the primary needs
  • 2.5. What is happening about emissions?
    • 2.5.1. Cheating but improving
    • 2.5.2. Worldwide regulatory emissions roadmap for heavy duty diesel
  • 2.6. Electric bus dynamics
  • 2.7. Anatomy of the automotive industry
    • 2.7.1. Global automotive production 2017
    • 2.7.2. New commercial vehicle registrations or sales are mainly static but strong growth in East Asia
  • 2.8. FAME India
  • 2.9. Charger standardisation: bus/truck commonality

3. CHINA ELECTRIC TRANSIT BUS, COACH, SHUTTLE

  • 3.1. Yutong and the story of buses in China
    • 3.1.1. History
  • 3.2. BYD
    • 3.2.1. Breadth and growth
    • 3.2.2. New car and Skyrail for 2019
    • 3.2.3. Innovation, rapid growth globally
  • 3.3. China leapfrogging in adoption and some bus technology
  • 3.4. Broad technical advances in electric buses in China
  • 3.5. E-bus sales numbers China 2016: Yutong, Zhongtong and BYD grow strongly
  • 3.6. Performance in 2017 compared
  • 3.7. Thirteenth Five Year Plan (2015-2020) (Hybrid & Electric) Buses
  • 3.8. Restriction of e-bikes helps buses
  • 3.9. BYD: the Chinese electric bus maker with the most impressive global rollout
  • 3.10. Golden Dragon

4. INDIA TRANSIT BUS, COACH, SHUTTLE

  • 4.1. Watch India: the most ambitious switch of all
  • 4.2. India 2018: orders, uncertainty and advances

5. AMERICAS TRANSIT BUS, COACH, SHUTTLE

  • 5.1. Latin America - large numbers

6. NORTH AMERICA

  • 6.1. Unique mix
  • 6.2. Example of pure electric bus leadership: Proterra

7. EUROPE

  • 7.1. Example of excellence: Solaris Bus and Coach Poland
  • 7.2. Visedo PowerDRUM
  • 7.3. ASSURED project for fast charging
  • 7.4. BlueSG announce shuttle bus with super capacitors and flash-charging
  • 7.5. ADL/BYD double decker
  • 7.6. Optare

8. SCHOOL BUSES

  • 8.1. North America
    • 8.1.1. Overview
    • 8.1.2. School buses choking children to death, unnecessary fires
    • 8.1.3. US school bus statistics 2018
    • 8.1.4. Commentary
    • 8.1.5. Autonomy needed: driver shortages and cost escalation
    • 8.1.6. Pure electric powertrains needed: longer life, much less maintenance compared to current diesel shown below
    • 8.1.7. US leading school bus manufacturers
  • 8.2. China: big potential, not much happening yet
  • 8.3. School buses: USA and China compared
  • 8.4. School buses: news, launches and initiatives

9. ELECTRIC BUS TECHNOLOGY AND ITS FUTURE

  • 9.1.1. Comparison of powertrain options
  • 9.1.2. Batteries Assessment by Professor Pietro Perlo
  • 9.1.3. Exit from fuel cell vehicles as pure electric vehicles "steal their clothes"
  • 9.2. Value chain of hybrid buses
  • 9.3. Pure electric powertrain is simpler and later bypasses many Tier One suppliers
  • 9.4. Power electronics becomes more important than batteries even in pure electric vehicles
  • 9.5. Structural electronics will come to buses
  • 9.6. Many design solutions persist for the same types of bus
  • 9.7. UITP and MB summary of bus technologies
  • 9.8. Here come more small buses
  • 9.9. Autonomous bus and bus-taxi
    • 9.9.1. Overview
    • 9.9.2. 6POD concept
    • 9.9.3. Large smart windows needed
  • 9.10. Electric traction motors for buses in context
    • 9.10.1. Overview
    • 9.10.2. Example BYD
    • 9.10.3. No differential or prop shaft
    • 9.10.4. Innovative two motor formats: Mercedes Vito minibus
    • 9.10.5. Equipmake PM spoke motor for buses in 2020
  • 9.11. Traction batteries
  • 9.12. Traction supercapacitors for hybrid buses
  • 9.13. Traction supercapacitors in buses
  • 9.14. Traction supercapacitors for pure electric buses
  • 9.15. Software and services: example Citymapper Smartbus
  • 9.16. Autonomy
    • 9.16.1. Fully autonomous: buses or taxis, rarely privately owned cars
    • 9.16.2. Hardware replaced by software & content
    • 9.16.3. Hype curve for autonomy today
    • 9.16.4. Autonomous shuttles in Switzerland
    • 9.16.5. Gateway autonomous bus UK
    • 9.16.6. IBM Olli bus: autonomous with many services
    • 9.16.7. Huge scope for media
  • 9.17. Charging the battery
    • 9.17.1. Overview
    • 9.17.2. Example: ABB TOSA: overhead top up means less battery
    • 9.17.3. Contactless charging
  • 9.18. Towards energy independence: increasing bus range
  • 9.19. Radical innovation
    • 9.19.1. Transit Elevated Bus TEV: scrapped but interesting
    • 9.19.2. Taxi-car-bus ride sharing has huge benefit
  • 9.20. Energy Independent Electric Vehicles EIEV
  • 9.20.1. Disruptive
    • 9.20.2. Energy independent electric bus: NFH-H microbus China
    • 9.20.3. Energy positive large buses will come

10. 90 HYBRID BUS MANUFACTURERS

11. 86 PURE ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS

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