World Drilling and Production Market Forecast 2019-2025 Q1

出版商 Douglas-Westwood 商品编码 296687
出版日期 内容资讯 英文
商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内
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全球石油、天然气开采及生产市场预测 World Drilling and Production Market Forecast 2019-2025 Q1
出版日期: 2019年02月05日内容资讯: 英文


第1章 与全球开采生产

  • 主要题目
  • 主要15油田
  • 不稳定的原油供给
  • 调查手法
  • 全球生产与开采
  • 全球石油、天然气的生产
  • 在陆上的生产与开采
  • 在陆上的生产与开采:石油
  • 在陆上的生产与开采:天然气
  • 在海上的生产与开采
  • 在海上的生产与开采:浅海
  • 在海上的生产与开采:深海

第2章 非洲

  • 非洲概况
  • 阿尔及利亚
  • 查德
  • 埃及
  • 赤道几内亚
  • 加彭
  • 迦纳
  • 利比亚
  • 茅利塔尼亚
  • 莫三比克
  • 奈及利亚
  • 刚果共和国
  • 苏丹、南苏丹
  • 坦尚尼亚
  • 乌干达

第3章 亚洲

  • 亚洲概况
  • 孟加拉
  • 汶莱
  • 柬埔寨
  • 中国
  • 印度
  • 印尼
  • 马来西亚
  • 缅甸
  • 巴基斯坦
  • 泰国
  • 越南

第4章 澳大拉西亚

  • 澳大拉西亚概况
  • 澳洲
  • 纽西兰
  • 巴布亚纽几内亚

第5章 东欧和旧苏联各国

  • 东欧和旧苏联各国概况
  • 亚塞拜然
  • 哈萨克
  • 波兰
  • 罗马尼亚
  • 俄罗斯
  • 土库曼
  • 乌克兰
  • 乌兹别克

第6章 南美

  • 南美概况
  • 阿根廷
  • 玻利维亚
  • 巴西
  • 哥伦比亚
  • 厄瓜多
  • 福克兰群岛
  • 盖亚那共和国
  • 墨西哥
  • 秘鲁
  • 千里达及托巴哥共和国
  • 委内瑞拉

第7章 中东

  • 中东概况
  • 巴林
  • 伊朗
  • 伊拉克
  • 以色列
  • 科威特
  • 阿曼
  • 卡达
  • 沙乌地阿拉伯
  • 叙利亚
  • 土耳其
  • 阿拉伯联合大公国 (UAE)
  • 叶门

第8章 北美

  • 北美概况
  • 加拿大
  • 美国

第9章 西欧

  • 西欧概况
  • 阿尔巴尼亚
  • 丹麦
  • 德国
  • 爱尔兰
  • 义大利
  • 荷兰
  • 挪威
  • 英国

第10章 附录



Based on detailed models, the report examines each country in turn and includes a summary of hydrocarbon potential and sensitised production outlook, with associated development drilling requirements segmented into oil & gas for the onshore sector and shallow vs. deep water depths for the offshore sector. Country-by-country exploration and appraisal (E&A) drilling forecasts for both the onshore and offshore sectors are also detailed.

US Production Shows no Signs of Slowing Down as OPEC moves to Support Prices

OPEC have moved to take supply out of the market but the key question at the start of 2019 is - have they done enough? Expectations for oil demand growth are weak as economic growth slows in China and the US. Meanwhile, US production growth continues and is near breaking through the 12 mmbbl/d of crude oil mark, compared to just 5 mmbbl/d in 2008, and long lead-time developments in deepwater continue to come online. The dynamics on the supply and demand side point to some uncertainty for 2019, and potentially downside risk to oil price in the near-term. In the longer term, however, the issues of low project sanctioning and reserve-replacement will have to be addressed at some point to avoid a supply crunch.

Key Conclusions Include:

  • The Middle East and North America will continue to produce liquids at record levels, leading to 99.4 mmbbl/d of supply in 2025, 8% higher than 2018.
  • Driven by US onshore, global drilling activity will experience considerable growth, with over 378,000 onshore development wells to be drilled globally over the forecast period.
  • Crude oil production in the US is now close to surpassing 12 mmbbl/d compared to just 5 mmbbl/d in 2008.
  • Total US liquids (including NGLs and condensates) production averaged 14.4 mmbbl/d in 2018 and will continue to increase, averaging 15.5 mmbbl/d through 2019.
  • Deepwater activity remains a bright spot over the forecast, with production being 49% higher in 2025 than 2018. More than 1,200 wells will be drilled to achieve this.
  • Brazil will continue to dominate deepwater production, accounting for 41% of global deepwater oil production over 2019-2025.
  • OPEC and OPEC+ announced a 1.2 mmbbl/d production cut from October 2018 reference levels, though Westwood estimates they will fall short of this total by over 200 kbbl/d.

Year-on-year Change in Global Oil Production by Region 2016-2025

The key story of the last quarter has been on the demand side, with several forecasters lowering their demand expectations due to a slowdown in the global economy. While OPEC's decision to continue it's production cut may help offset the production gains made by the US, the weaker demand outlook, high levels of oil stocks and large additions from countries outside of OPEC mean that oil prices are expected to be turbulent.

On the supply side, US liquids production (including NGLs and condensates) has continued at record levels, with 2018 production averaging 14.4 mmbbl/d - 1.5 mmbbl/d higher than 2017. In 2019, some 1.1 mmbbl/d is expected to be added, boosted by continued high levels of drilling and completion onshore. Looking further ahead, growth in the US is unlikely to slow in the near term, as new pipelines come online in Texas, reducing bottlenecks and allowing for an acceleration in completions in the Permian basin.

In response to the extent of US onshore production growth and the sharp decline in oil prices during Q4 2018, OPEC announced a time extension to it's production cuts (which were previously set to end in December 2018). Excluding those with exemptions, OPEC member states are aiming to reduce production by a combined 800 kbbl/d compared to October 2018 levels. In addition, OPEC+ would cut a further 400 kbbl/d. Based on compliance levels in 2018, Westwood expects OPEC and OPEC+ countries to cut output by only 949 kbbl/d.

In contrast to the production growth in the USA, there are several key producing countries facing major production challenges. Venezuela remains in disarray and is expected to continue to see production decline with crude output of 1.1 mmbbl/d in December 2018, compared to 2.6 mmbbl/d in January 2016. Mexico has seen large declines in recent years and the election of a government that has stopped foreign oil auctions for the next three years is a sign that things may not improve quickly. Furthermore, regional conflict continues to weigh on production, with ongoing disruption in countries such as Syria and Yemen wiping out substantial supply. Similarly, Libya continues to suffer from outages and a lack of stability.

With respect to Iran - waivers given last November to eight countries to continue importing Iranian crude for six months are unlikely to be renewed when they expire. Iranian production has already dropped substantially, with Q4 2018 production averaging 0.7 mmbbl/d lower than Q1 2018. A tightening of US sanctions presents a real downside risk for the country in 2019.

While in the short-term, oversupply is the market's key issue, the longer-term picture tells a different story. Based on a consensus of continued demand growth in the latter years of the forecast, long-term production additions look set to be insufficient to meet rising demand, leading to a potential undersupply for much of the early 2020's (based on currently visible projects and reserves). However, this outlook assumes the continuation of outages and economic/political issues for a number of oil producing nations. Any resolution to these issues, as well as any game-changing technological innovation, not to mention any substantial rally in oil prices, will cause the market to come back into balance. However, when and if this will come to fruition remains to be seen.

This report includes data and analysis for more than 70 of the most important energy producing countries (covering >99% of global hydrocarbon supply), including detailed drilling and production forecasts for each country covering the period 2019-2025.

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