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市场调查报告书

国家风险评估报告 - 泰国

Thailand Country Risk Report Q2 2020

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品编码 203091
出版日期 内容资讯 英文 65 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内
价格
国家风险评估报告 - 泰国 Thailand Country Risk Report Q2 2020
出版日期: 2020年02月21日内容资讯: 英文 65 Pages
简介

泰国的实质GDP预测由于美中贸易战及投资预测恶化而低迷。因为社会不透明而有几项风险,但不论选举结果如何国家宪法都需要维护政治持续。12月19日举行的金融政策会议将政策利率提升25点设定为1.75%,预测2019年泰国银行利率会维持现状。经济成长迟缓、通货膨胀低于目标、对金融稳定的忧心等,预计2019年会维持金融政策的现状。

本报告调查了泰国的国家风险,并统整了针对政经风险概要、SWOT分析、经济成长预测与趋势、金融政策、市场预测、国内外政治情势等资讯。

目录

执行摘要

  • 核心总览
  • 预测变更点
  • 主要风险
  • 国家风险概要
  • 经济风险指数
  • 政治风险指数
  • SWOT分析
  • 经济 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 经济预测
  • 经济成长预测
  • 2018年第3季GDP是2019年外部课题的预兆
  • 支出别GDP预测
  • 对外贸易投资预测
  • 泰国稳健的对外财政有减少的趋势,但依然支持泰铢
  • 外部Position预测
  • 金融政策
  • 泰国对2018年利率上升没有援助
  • 金融政策框架
  • 结构性财政Position
  • 通货预测
  • 基础强健的泰铢渐次升高
  • 本报告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research发表,并不是Fitch Ratings的信用排名。报告中的评论和资料,都是仅由Fitch Solutions Macro Research及独立资讯来源所获得。Fitch Ratings的分析师并未与Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享资料。
  • 2028年为止的泰国经济
  • 政治不确定与主要成长障碍
  • 政治预测
  • 国内政治
  • 总选举延迟提升了泰国政治混乱程度
  • 长期政治预测
  • 维持政治势力的军队
  • 运用风险
  • 纷争风险
  • 交通网
  • 世界总体趋势预测
  • 对世界性成长的负面风险
  • 索引

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目录
Product Code: CFTH_20200401

We at Fitch Solutions believe Thailand's economy in 2020 will continue to face the similar headwinds it has met during 2019, curbing the potential for a strong

rebound in activity. External challenges are set to persist, widening net exports' drag on headline growth, and we expect a further moderation of household

demand, given high indebtedness and weaker job growth prospects. As such, growth will be highly dependent on the effect of fiscal and monetary stimulus, with

risks of delays to the former and insufficient impact from the latter. We now forecast growth in 2020 to rebound to 3.0%, from a forecast 2.8% in 2019, having

previously expected a stronger pick-up in growth at 3.5%.

We believe the Bank of Thailand (BoT) will take a cautious approach to further monetary easing over the coming quarters. We have maintained our forecast for

the key policy rate to be kept on hold at 1.25% through 2020 but note risks of further easing are higher given the impact of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

outbreak on the country's tourism sector. The key reason for the BoT's cautious approach are policy constraints we do not foresee abating in the coming quarters;

namely high household indebtedness, slowing economic growth, Thai baht strength and ongoing trade negotiations with the US.

Thailand's fiscal packages will target boosting domestic consumption, export-orientated sectors and investment as well as encouraging foreign direct investment

over the coming quarters. The fiscal packages will not pose a threat to Thailand's fiscal position, which remains well managed under the Fiscal Responsibility Act.

However, we note the boost to the economy may be less than intended given weak domestic confidence and longer-term structural issues. Moreover, delays

to the passing of the 2020 budget could mean fiscal policy fails to act as a buffer through Q120.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Thailand Growth Faces Significant Downside Threat From Coronavirus Outbreak
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS IN 2017
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS IN 2017
  • Monetary Policy
  • Rate Cut No Signal For Aggressive Easing Cycle In Thailand
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Thailand Budget Signals Greater Fiscal Stimulus Focus
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • Currency Forecast
  • THB: Thai Policymakers' Headache To Continue With Baht Appreciation
    • TABLE: FITCH SOLUTIONS CURRENCY FORECAST
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.Thailand Country Risk Q2 2020Contents10-Year Forecast
  • The Thai Economy To 2029
  • Political Uncertainty The Main Growth Obstacle
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Opposition Protests Not A Threat To Near-Term Political Stability In Thailand
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Uncertainty Ahead Despite Tight Military Grip
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Conflict Risk
    • TABLE: MAIN ACTIVE TERRORIST GROUPS
    • TABLE: POLITICAL VIOLENCE RISK
    • TABLE: MILITARY PROFILE AND DEFENCE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: MAJOR INTERSTATE CONFLICT FLASHPOINTS
    • TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO CONFLICT RISK
  • Transport Network
    • TABLE: ROAD RISKS
    • TABLE: RAIL RISKS
    • TABLE: PORTS AND INLAND WATERWAYS RISKS
    • TABLE: AIR TRANSPORT RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Economic Stabilisation Continues And Inflation Picking Up Slowly
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: THAILAND - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS