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市场调查报告书

国家风险评估报告 - 泰国

Thailand Country Risk Report Q1 2020

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品编码 203091
出版日期 内容资讯 英文 71 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内
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国家风险评估报告 - 泰国 Thailand Country Risk Report Q1 2020
出版日期: 2019年10月25日内容资讯: 英文 71 Pages
简介

泰国的实质GDP预测由于美中贸易战及投资预测恶化而低迷。因为社会不透明而有几项风险,但不论选举结果如何国家宪法都需要维护政治持续。12月19日举行的金融政策会议将政策利率提升25点设定为1.75%,预测2019年泰国银行利率会维持现状。经济成长迟缓、通货膨胀低于目标、对金融稳定的忧心等,预计2019年会维持金融政策的现状。

本报告调查了泰国的国家风险,并统整了针对政经风险概要、SWOT分析、经济成长预测与趋势、金融政策、市场预测、国内外政治情势等资讯。

目录

执行摘要

  • 核心总览
  • 预测变更点
  • 主要风险
  • 国家风险概要
  • 经济风险指数
  • 政治风险指数
  • SWOT分析
  • 经济 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 经济预测
  • 经济成长预测
  • 2018年第3季GDP是2019年外部课题的预兆
  • 支出别GDP预测
  • 对外贸易投资预测
  • 泰国稳健的对外财政有减少的趋势,但依然支持泰铢
  • 外部Position预测
  • 金融政策
  • 泰国对2018年利率上升没有援助
  • 金融政策框架
  • 结构性财政Position
  • 通货预测
  • 基础强健的泰铢渐次升高
  • 本报告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research发表,并不是Fitch Ratings的信用排名。报告中的评论和资料,都是仅由Fitch Solutions Macro Research及独立资讯来源所获得。Fitch Ratings的分析师并未与Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享资料。
  • 2028年为止的泰国经济
  • 政治不确定与主要成长障碍
  • 政治预测
  • 国内政治
  • 总选举延迟提升了泰国政治混乱程度
  • 长期政治预测
  • 维持政治势力的军队
  • 运用风险
  • 纷争风险
  • 交通网
  • 世界总体趋势预测
  • 对世界性成长的负面风险
  • 索引

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目录
Product Code: CFTH_20200101

Executive Summary:

We believe that Thailand's economy in 2020 will continue to face the same headwinds it has met during 2019, curbing the potential for a strong rebound in activity. External challenges are set to persist, widening net exports' drag on headline growth, and we expect a further moderation of household demand, given high indebtedness and weaker job growth prospects. Therefore, growth will be highly dependent on the effect of fiscal and monetary stimulus, with risks of delays to the former and insufficient impact from the latter. We now forecast growth in 2020 to rebound to 3.0%, from a forecast 2.8% in 2019, having previously expected a stronger pickup in growth to 3.5%.

We believe that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) will take a cautious approach to further monetary easing over the coming quarters. We have maintained our forecast for the key policy rate to be kept on hold at 1.50% through 2019, but now forecast a further cut in 2020 to 1.25%. The key reason for the BoT's cautious ap- proach are policy constraints that we do not foresee abating in the coming quarters; namely high household indebtedness, slowing economic growth, Thai baht strength and ongoing trade negotiations with the US.

Thailand's fiscal packages will target boosting domestic consumption and investment as well as encouraging foreign direct investment over the coming quarters. The fiscal packages will not pose a threat to Thailand's fiscal position, which remains well managed under the Fiscal Responsibility Act. However, we note that the boost to the economy may be less than intended, given weak domestic confidence and longer-term structural issues. We expect the Thai baht to continue to see modest appreciation over the coming quarters, owing to its safe-haven status that protects the currency in times of risk aversion and the cautious approach to easing by the BoT. In 2020 we believe that the baht will test the resistance level set in 2013, as risk aversion rises and gold prices - which the baht tracks strongly - rise further. However, US dollar strength and some easing by the BoT in 2020 will curb appreciatory pressures, preventing a significant break below the 2013 resistance level.

We continue to highlight the risks to policymaking under the fragmented coalition of governing parties. The potential for the government to lose its majority remains elevated and policymaking could stall under rising disunity within the coalition. That said, we do not expect a return to the instability of previous years, with the military supporting the incumbent government and prime minister. Given that we had already factored in risks to Thailand's policymaking in our Short- Term Political Risk Score of 70.4 out of 100, we maintain our score for now, with risks tilted to the downside.

Major Forecast Changes:

We have revised our 2020 real GDP growth forecast to 3.0% from 3.5% previously.

Key Risks:

The new government of Thailand is a coalition government consisting of 16 parties. The unity of the government will be a challenge to maintain, and major issues such as the upcoming bid by the Democrat Party to revise the 2017 Constitution could result in paralysis or even dissolution of the government. Thailand's tourism boom has been largely driven by rapid growth in mainland Chinese arrivals, which could slow sharply should the Chinese economy undergo a slowdown.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks

Country Risk Summary

  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index

SWOT

  • Economic – SWOT Analysis
  • Political – SWOT Analysis

Economic Outlook

Economic Growth Outlook

  • Stimulus Impact Key To Thailand's 2020 Growth Rebound
    • We at Fitch Solutions believe that Thailand's economy in 2020 will continue to face the same headwinds as in 2019, curbing the potential for a strong rebound in activity

GDP By Expenditure Outlook

  • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
  • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
  • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
  • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
  • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS

Outlook On External Position

  • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
  • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS IN 2017
  • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS IN 2017

Monetary Policy

  • Bank Of Thailand To Continue Facing Policy Challenges
    • We at Fitch Solutions believe that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) will take a cautious approach to further monetary easing over the coming quarters

Monetary Policy Framework

  • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS

Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook

  • Fiscal Packages To Target Short- And Long-Term Growth Boost
    • Thailand's fiscal packages will target boosting domestic consumption and investment as well as encouraging foreign direct investment over the coming quarters

Structural Fiscal Position

  • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS

Currency Forecast

  • THB: Modest Appreciation Ahead For The Thai Baht
    • At Fitch Solutions, we expect the Thai baht to continue to see modest appreciation over the coming quarters, owing to its safe haven status that protects the currency in times of risk aversion and the cautious approach to easing by the Bank of Thailand
  • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST

10-Year Forecast

The Thai Economy To 2028

  • Political Uncertainty The Main Growth Obstacle
    • Ongoing political uncertainty, deteriorating demographic trends and a lack of reform momentum are likely to undermine Thailand's long-term economic growth trajectory. We forecast real GDP growth to average 2.9% annually between 2019 and 2028, making it a regional growth laggard over the coming years
  • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

Political Outlook

Domestic Politics

  • Policymaking At Risk From Slim Lower House Majority
    • At Fitch Solutions we continue to highlight risks to policymaking under the fragmented coalition of governing parties
  • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Long-Term Political Outlook

  • Uncertainty Ahead, Despite Tight Military Grip
    • Thailand will continue to experience political uncertainty over the coming decade, posing a risk to the existing political order, despite the increasingly tight grip of the military government. The most likely scenario is a dysfunctional democracy with unstable governments, with the military playing a strong role. At worst, rising political violence could push the country towards civil conflict, but the probability has declined since the 2014 coup

Operational Risk

  • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK SCORES

Economic Openness

  • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
  • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
  • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
  • TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS

Utilities Network

  • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
  • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
  • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
  • TABLE: WATER RISKS

Global Macro Outlook

  • Manufacturing Weakness And Rising Political Risk To Weigh On Growth
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y

Index Tables

  • TABLE: THAILAND – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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