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市场调查报告书

国家风险评估报告 - 泰国

Thailand Country Risk Report Q4 2019

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品编码 203091
出版日期 内容资讯 英文 63 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内
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国家风险评估报告 - 泰国 Thailand Country Risk Report Q4 2019
出版日期: 2019年08月21日内容资讯: 英文 63 Pages
简介

泰国的实质GDP预测由于美中贸易战及投资预测恶化而低迷。因为社会不透明而有几项风险,但不论选举结果如何国家宪法都需要维护政治持续。12月19日举行的金融政策会议将政策利率提升25点设定为1.75%,预测2019年泰国银行利率会维持现状。经济成长迟缓、通货膨胀低于目标、对金融稳定的忧心等,预计2019年会维持金融政策的现状。

本报告调查了泰国的国家风险,并统整了针对政经风险概要、SWOT分析、经济成长预测与趋势、金融政策、市场预测、国内外政治情势等资讯。

目录

执行摘要

  • 核心总览
  • 预测变更点
  • 主要风险
  • 国家风险概要
  • 经济风险指数
  • 政治风险指数
  • SWOT分析
  • 经济 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 经济预测
  • 经济成长预测
  • 2018年第3季GDP是2019年外部课题的预兆
  • 支出别GDP预测
  • 对外贸易投资预测
  • 泰国稳健的对外财政有减少的趋势,但依然支持泰铢
  • 外部Position预测
  • 金融政策
  • 泰国对2018年利率上升没有援助
  • 金融政策框架
  • 结构性财政Position
  • 通货预测
  • 基础强健的泰铢渐次升高
  • 本报告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research发表,并不是Fitch Ratings的信用排名。报告中的评论和资料,都是仅由Fitch Solutions Macro Research及独立资讯来源所获得。Fitch Ratings的分析师并未与Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享资料。
  • 2028年为止的泰国经济
  • 政治不确定与主要成长障碍
  • 政治预测
  • 国内政治
  • 总选举延迟提升了泰国政治混乱程度
  • 长期政治预测
  • 维持政治势力的军队
  • 运用风险
  • 纷争风险
  • 交通网
  • 世界总体趋势预测
  • 对世界性成长的负面风险
  • 索引

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目录
Product Code: CFTH_20191001

At Fitch Solutions, we are revising down our 2019 real GDP forecast to 3.0% from 3.5% previously. Re-escalating US-China trade tensions and high inventory stock are the main downside factors likely to weigh on growth over the coming quarters. We expect the slowdown to be cushioned by favourable base effects and monetary easing, while the formation of a new government over the coming weeks will likely see supportive fiscal policies being adopted. A significant delay to government formation and further escalation in US-China trade tensions are the main downside risks to our forecast.

We still expect the Bank of Thailand to cut its policy interest rate by 25bps by the end of 2019. The central bank's tone remains dovish, and is now further worried by the impact of what it deems as strong currency appreciation on the external sector. Our view remains supported by two key factors; slowing growth prospects and inflation which is likely to underperform the central bank's mid-point target of 2.5%. The long delay in government formation is likely to lead to a delay in passing the next fiscal budget, worsening the situation.

Thailand's new government is gearing up to implement the populist promises in its manifesto, including income tax cuts and the extension of subsidies for public transport, fuels, and necessities. However, with specified details yet to be finalised at the time of writing, we at Fitch Solutions maintain our fiscal deficit forecast for 2019 at 1.9% of GDP and that for 2020 at 1.8% of GDP. We believe that farmers, in particular, may require yet more subsidies amid headwinds from drought and a strong baht.

We maintain our 2019 average forecast for the baht at THB32.00/USD, expecting the BoT to limit baht strength over the coming months to shore up the country's external sector. We also maintain our 2020 average forecast for the unit, which stands at THB31.25/USD, with the current account and more stable political environment likely to prove constructive for the unit over the coming quarters. However, uncertainty regarding the ability of the new government to maintain unity and govern effectively remains a key downside risk.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • We have revised our real GDP growth forecast to 3.0% from 3.5% previously.
  • We have revised our policy interest rate for 2019 to 1.75% from 1.50% previously.

Key Risks:

The new government of Thailand is a coalition government consisting of 19 parties. The unity of the government will be a challenge to maintain, and major issues such as the upcoming bid by the Democrat Party to revise the 2017 Constitution, could result in paralysis or even dissolution of the government. Thailand's tourism boom has been largely driven by rapid growth in mainland Chinese arrivals, which could slow sharply should the Chinese economy undergo a slowdown.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Growth Revised Down On Re-Escalating Trade Tensions
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS IN 2017
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS IN 2017
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Resurgent Populism A Downside Risk To Public Finances
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • Currency Forecast
  • Thai Baht Strength Unlikely To Last Amid Global Risks
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • Thailand Country Risk Q4 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
  • The Thai Economy To 2028
  • Political Uncertainty The Main Growth Obstacle
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Thailand's New Government: Disunity Looms Large, But Low Coup Risk
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
    • TABLE: KEY NCPO MEMBERS RETAIN THEIR PORTFOLIOS
    • TABLE: OTHER MINISTERIAL APPOINTEES
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Uncertainty Ahead Despite Tight Military Grip
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK SCORES
  • Labour Costs
    • TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
  • Legal Environment
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC BARRIERS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Global Growth Deceleration, But Policy Increasingly Supportive
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: THAILAND - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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