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市场调查报告书

国家风险评估报告 - 菲律宾

Philippines Country Risk Report Q4 2019

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品编码 203087
出版日期 内容资讯 英文 57 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内
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国家风险评估报告 - 菲律宾 Philippines Country Risk Report Q4 2019
出版日期: 2019年08月05日内容资讯: 英文 57 Pages
简介

菲律宾实质GDP成长率预测从上次的6.3%到2018年的6.2%,2019年成长率往下修正到6.1%。金融情势紧迫、通货膨胀持续、消费者信任度低等导致个人消费成长预测依然低迷。此外商业环境恶化与税制不透明影响了政府财政改革,被指出未来几季可能抑制民间投资。预测菲律宾的财政赤字在2019年达到GDP的2.9%。成长缓慢的财政及金融政策的结果是相对于总体经济稳定化下降风险升高,但菲律宾现在维持良好状态。对外关系,预测菲律宾和中国未来几年的国际关系与经济合作都会更加深化。

本报告调查了菲律宾的国家风险,并统整了针对政经风险概要、SWOT分析、经济成长预测与趋势、金融政策、市场预测、国内外政治情势等资讯。

目录

执行摘要

  • 核心总览
  • 主要风险
  • 国家风险概要
  • 经济风险指数
  • 政治风险指数
  • SWOT分析
  • 经济 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 经济预测
  • 经济成长预测
  • 菲律宾烦恼如何停止成长迟缓
  • 支出别GDP预测
  • 外部Position预测
  • 金融政策
  • 菲律宾在2019年提升价金
  • 金融政策框架
  • 财政政策与公债预测
  • 菲律宾财政走上扩大之路
  • 结构性财政Position
  • 通货预测披索在2019年会缓慢下降
  • 本报告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research发表,并不是Fitch Ratings的信用排名。报告中的评论和资料,都是仅由Fitch Solutions Macro Research及独立资讯来源所获得。Fitch Ratings的分析师并未与Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享资料。
  • 2028年为止的菲律宾经济
  • 高投资率维持经济成长
  • 政治预测
  • 国内政治
  • 预期菲律宾和中国的关系将改善
  • 长期政治预测
  • 规制改善预测
  • 运用风险
  • 纷争风险
  • 交通网
  • 世界总体趋势预测
  • 不稳定性成为成长迟缓的重要因素
  • 索引

本网页内容可能与最新版本有所差异。详细情况请与我们联系。

目录
Product Code: CFPH_20191001

Key View:

We have revised down our economic growth forecast to 5.9% in 2019, from 6.1% previously, owing to softer external demand and less fiscal stimulus.

We expect the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to adopt a cautious approach over the coming months, cutting its key policy rate just twice in 2019 to 4.25%, and deliver a further 25bps rate cut in 2020.

Key Risks:

A shift away from the West and Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's more populist rhetoric could upset existing trade relations with major economic partners like the US and the EU.

The Philippines is increasing economic linkages and exposure to China (and moving away from the West), at a time when the US and China are experiencing rising trade tensions. A deterioration in US-China trade relations could weigh on demand across the Asia region and weaken Chinese investment into the Philippines. Philippines' twin deficits leave it somewhat exposed to a sudden bout of risk-off sentiment, with inflation a risk were the peso to weaken significantly.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views and Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Philippine Stimulus To Only Partially Offset External Drags
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • External Trade And Investment Outlook
  • Philippines' External Position Robust In The Near Term
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
    • TABLE: MAIN IMPORT AND EXPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN IMPORTS AND EXPORTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Philippines To Ease Monetary Policy Further
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
  • Philippines Country Risk Q4 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsCurrency Forecast
  • PHP: Appreciatory Run To Lose Steam, But Rout Less Likely
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • 10-Year Forecast
  • The Philippine Economy To 2028
  • Potential For Higher Investment Rate To Sustain Economic Growth
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Duterte Given Strengthened Mandate, But Faces Four Key Challenges
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Prospects For Improving Governance
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK SCORE
  • Labour Costs
    • TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
  • Legal Environment
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC BARRIERS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Trade Tensions And Slowing Momentum Point To Weaker Growth Outlook, Higher Risks
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: PHILIPPINES - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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