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市场调查报告书

国家风险评估报告 - 马来西亚

Malaysia Country Risk Report Q2 2020

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品编码 203083
出版日期 内容资讯 英文 69 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内
价格
国家风险评估报告 - 马来西亚 Malaysia Country Risk Report Q2 2020
出版日期: 2020年02月21日内容资讯: 英文 69 Pages
简介

马来西亚2018年的实质GDP成长率从以前的5.1%降至4.6%,2019年成长率从4.5%往下修正至4.2%。2018年的修正反映了低于预想的2018年第3季结果,预计第4季成长会更加迟缓。除了个人消费,几乎GDP所有支出项目都令人担心,对2019年马来西亚的成长有不良影响。2018年后半的业绩与长久以来政治不透明,使得2019年马来西亚通货持续弱势,从1USD兑4.20令吉修正至4.25令吉。

本报告调查了马来西亚的国家风险,并统整了针对政经风险概要、SWOT分析、经济成长预测与趋势、金融政策、市场预测、国内外政治情势等资讯。

目录

执行摘要

  • 核心总览
  • 主要预测变更点
  • 主要风险
  • 国家风险概要
  • 经济风险指数
  • 政治风险指数
  • SWOT分析
  • 经济 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 经济预测
  • 经济成长预测
  • 马来西亚成长会进一步减缓
  • 支出别GDP预测
  • 外部Position预测
  • 金融政策
  • 马来西亚国立银行(BNM)在2019年面临成长迟缓与通货膨胀
  • 金融政策框架
  • 财政政策与公债预测
  • 马来西亚2019年预算:对石油收入的依赖为财政重建带来风险
  • 结构性财政Position
  • 本报告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research发表,并不是Fitch Ratings的信用排名。报告中的评论和资料,都是仅由Fitch Solutions Macro Research及独立资讯来源所获得。Fitch Ratings的分析师并未与Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享资料。
  • 长期以来的政治不透明使马来西亚令吉到2020年前会继续低迷
  • 10年预测
  • 2028年为止的马来西亚经济
  • 马来西亚实质GDP成长率减缓至4.4%
  • 政治预测
  • 国内政治
  • 马来西亚希望联盟(PH)抑制了安华的人气
  • 长期政治预测
  • 马来西亚选举政策依然不透明
  • 运用风险
  • 纷争风险
  • 交通网
  • 世界总体趋势预测
  • 不稳定性成为成长减缓的重要原因
  • 索引表

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目录
Product Code: CFMY_20200401

Our real GDP forecasts for 2019 and 2020 remain at 4.6% and 4.5% respectively. Private consumption is likely to slow slightly in 2020 due to the government's

fiscal rationalisation efforts but be supported by favourable base effects in 2019. Exports are likely to be the main drag on the economy in 2020, but this effect

should be mitigated somewhat by falling imports. Investment is likely to bottom out in 2020 amid government policies to encourage foreign investment and

to reduce housing oversupply.

We expect Malaysia's budget balance to come in at -3.4% and -3.3% in 2019 and 2020, improving from -3.7% in 2018. Our forecasts reflect our revised view that

the government's plan to consolidate public finances is credible, reinforced by Budget 2020, which while lacking in significant revenue expansion measures,

features restrained expenditure growth. Policies announced in the Budget are a mixed bag in our view. Positive measures include reducing fuel subsidies and

making them targeted, whereas cash incentives to hire local workers will introduce further distortions in the economy.

Our 2020 view remains for a 25bps to the Overnight Policy Rate to 2.75%, following the central bank's decision to hold at 3.00% at its final 2019 Monetary Policy

Committee meeting on November 5. Slowing growth as a result of external headwinds, benign inflation on a soft oil price outlook, as well as a widening policy

rate advantage against the US supply the motivation and space for a 25bps cut in 2020.

We maintain our average forecast for 2020 and 2021 at MYR4.25/USD and MYR4.20/USD respectively. Domestic political risks remains a key downside factor

to our forecasts, while we expect the US-China trade conflict to remain in a cycle of de-escalation and re-escalation, despite a 'Phase-One' looking set to be

reached, which is likely to weigh on the unit. We expect stronger investment and a less volatile US-China trade relationship in 2021 to see the ringgit stabilise

and even appreciate slightly.

Uncertainty surrounding the timeline for Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad to hand over the premiership to PKR President Anwar Ibrahim is likely to remain a

key source of discord within the ruling PH coalition. A continued lack of coordination in public statements regarding the matter between Anwar and Mahathir

is liable to result in escalating public spats between constituent parties of the coalition, making it more fragile and jeopardising its support. The UMNO-PAS

alliance, formalised on September 14, is likely to see race and religious issues play a bigger part in politics over the coming quarters and presents downside risk

to social stability and reform.

Major Forecast Changes

There were no major forecast changes this quarter.

Key Risks

Malaysia's economy is relatively well diversified and not particularly at risk from external shocks. The largest threat to the Malaysian economy comes from a rapid

unwind of the household credit boom that has taken place over the past few years since the global financial crisis. This has the potential to result in a collapse

in domestic demand amid declining property prices. This is not our core view, however, as debt service ratios remain manageable at current levels.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Maintaining Weaker Forecast For 2020 Malaysian Growth
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: MAIN IMPORTS & EXPORTS
    • TABLE: MAIN IMPORT & EXPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Malaysia: Widening Policy Rate Advantage Bolsters 2020 Rate Cut View
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Malaysia Budget 2020: Progress In Consolidation, Risks Remain
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPENDITURE & REVENUE CATEGORIES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsCurrency Forecast
  • Malaysian Ringgit To Weaken In 2020, Stabilise In 2021
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • 10-Year Forecast
  • The Malaysian Economy To 2029
  • Malaysia's Long Term Real GDP Growth To Slow To 4.4%
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Discord In Malaysian Government And Racial Politicking To Intensify
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Malaysian Electoral Politics To Remain Uncertain
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Conflict Risk
    • TABLE: MAIN ACTIVE TERRORIST GROUPS
    • TABLE: POLITICAL VIOLENCE RISK
    • TABLE: MAJOR INTERSTATE CONFLICT FLASHPOINTS
    • TABLE: MILITARY PROFILE AND DEFENCE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO CONFLICT RISKS
  • Transport Network
    • TABLE: ROAD RISKS
    • TABLE: RAIL RISKS
    • TABLE: PORTS AND INLAND WATERWAY RISKS
    • TABLE: AIR TRANSPORT RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Growth Stabilising, With EMs Set To Accelerate In 2020
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: MALAYSIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS