国家风险评估报告 - 马来西亚
Malaysia Country Risk Report Q2 2020
|出版商||Fitch Solutions, Inc.||商品编码||203083|
|出版日期||内容资讯||英文 69 Pages
|国家风险评估报告 - 马来西亚 Malaysia Country Risk Report Q2 2020|
|出版日期: 2020年02月21日||内容资讯: 英文 69 Pages||
Our real GDP forecasts for 2019 and 2020 remain at 4.6% and 4.5% respectively. Private consumption is likely to slow slightly in 2020 due to the government's
fiscal rationalisation efforts but be supported by favourable base effects in 2019. Exports are likely to be the main drag on the economy in 2020, but this effect
should be mitigated somewhat by falling imports. Investment is likely to bottom out in 2020 amid government policies to encourage foreign investment and
to reduce housing oversupply.
We expect Malaysia's budget balance to come in at -3.4% and -3.3% in 2019 and 2020, improving from -3.7% in 2018. Our forecasts reflect our revised view that
the government's plan to consolidate public finances is credible, reinforced by Budget 2020, which while lacking in significant revenue expansion measures,
features restrained expenditure growth. Policies announced in the Budget are a mixed bag in our view. Positive measures include reducing fuel subsidies and
making them targeted, whereas cash incentives to hire local workers will introduce further distortions in the economy.
Our 2020 view remains for a 25bps to the Overnight Policy Rate to 2.75%, following the central bank's decision to hold at 3.00% at its final 2019 Monetary Policy
Committee meeting on November 5. Slowing growth as a result of external headwinds, benign inflation on a soft oil price outlook, as well as a widening policy
rate advantage against the US supply the motivation and space for a 25bps cut in 2020.
We maintain our average forecast for 2020 and 2021 at MYR4.25/USD and MYR4.20/USD respectively. Domestic political risks remains a key downside factor
to our forecasts, while we expect the US-China trade conflict to remain in a cycle of de-escalation and re-escalation, despite a 'Phase-One' looking set to be
reached, which is likely to weigh on the unit. We expect stronger investment and a less volatile US-China trade relationship in 2021 to see the ringgit stabilise
and even appreciate slightly.
Uncertainty surrounding the timeline for Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad to hand over the premiership to PKR President Anwar Ibrahim is likely to remain a
key source of discord within the ruling PH coalition. A continued lack of coordination in public statements regarding the matter between Anwar and Mahathir
is liable to result in escalating public spats between constituent parties of the coalition, making it more fragile and jeopardising its support. The UMNO-PAS
alliance, formalised on September 14, is likely to see race and religious issues play a bigger part in politics over the coming quarters and presents downside risk
to social stability and reform.
There were no major forecast changes this quarter.
Malaysia's economy is relatively well diversified and not particularly at risk from external shocks. The largest threat to the Malaysian economy comes from a rapid
unwind of the household credit boom that has taken place over the past few years since the global financial crisis. This has the potential to result in a collapse
in domestic demand amid declining property prices. This is not our core view, however, as debt service ratios remain manageable at current levels.