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国家风险评估报告 - 马来西亚

Malaysia Country Risk Report Q1 2020

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品编码 203083
出版日期 内容资讯 英文 79 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内
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国家风险评估报告 - 马来西亚 Malaysia Country Risk Report Q1 2020
出版日期: 2019年10月25日内容资讯: 英文 79 Pages
简介

马来西亚2018年的实质GDP成长率从以前的5.1%降至4.6%,2019年成长率从4.5%往下修正至4.2%。2018年的修正反映了低于预想的2018年第3季结果,预计第4季成长会更加迟缓。除了个人消费,几乎GDP所有支出项目都令人担心,对2019年马来西亚的成长有不良影响。2018年后半的业绩与长久以来政治不透明,使得2019年马来西亚通货持续弱势,从1USD兑4.20令吉修正至4.25令吉。

本报告调查了马来西亚的国家风险,并统整了针对政经风险概要、SWOT分析、经济成长预测与趋势、金融政策、市场预测、国内外政治情势等资讯。

目录

执行摘要

  • 核心总览
  • 主要预测变更点
  • 主要风险
  • 国家风险概要
  • 经济风险指数
  • 政治风险指数
  • SWOT分析
  • 经济 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 经济预测
  • 经济成长预测
  • 马来西亚成长会进一步减缓
  • 支出别GDP预测
  • 外部Position预测
  • 金融政策
  • 马来西亚国立银行(BNM)在2019年面临成长迟缓与通货膨胀
  • 金融政策框架
  • 财政政策与公债预测
  • 马来西亚2019年预算:对石油收入的依赖为财政重建带来风险
  • 结构性财政Position
  • 本报告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research发表,并不是Fitch Ratings的信用排名。报告中的评论和资料,都是仅由Fitch Solutions Macro Research及独立资讯来源所获得。Fitch Ratings的分析师并未与Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享资料。
  • 长期以来的政治不透明使马来西亚令吉到2020年前会继续低迷
  • 10年预测
  • 2028年为止的马来西亚经济
  • 马来西亚实质GDP成长率减缓至4.4%
  • 政治预测
  • 国内政治
  • 马来西亚希望联盟(PH)抑制了安华的人气
  • 长期政治预测
  • 马来西亚选举政策依然不透明
  • 运用风险
  • 纷争风险
  • 交通网
  • 世界总体趋势预测
  • 不稳定性成为成长减缓的重要原因
  • 索引表

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目录
Product Code: CFMY_20200101

Key View:

We are revising our 2019 real GDP growth forecast to 4.6%, from 4.2% previously. The revision reflects the stronger-than-expected average growth rate of 4.7% y-o-y in H119, as well as our view for private consumption to remain strong and for the deceleration in investment growth to bottom out. However, we expect net exports to drag on overall growth over the second half of the year, with exports likely to remain anaemic and imports likely to pick up along with investment. Malaysia's current account balance is likely to remain under strong external pressure from slowing global growth, which has been exacerbated by elevated tariffs between the US and China. However, we expect the goods balance to be supported by declining imports over the coming months, with the exchange rate acting as a natural adjustment mechanism. This should see the current account remain in surplus over the coming quarters. While Malaysia is still vulnerable to capital outflows during periods of risk-off sentiment, this vulnerability has been diminished by an improving liabilities composition in its international investment position. Our rate forecast for 2019 remains at 3.00% for 2019 and is now 2.75% for 2020 (revised down from 3.25% previously). The effect of growth headwinds from higher US-China tariffs should feed through in 2020 and slow growth, providing a motive for rate cuts. Inflation is likely to remain subdued in 2020 on account of lower crude oil prices and Malaysia's relative insulation from the African swine fever pandemic.

We maintain our average ringgit forecasts for 2019 and 2020 at MYR4.15/USD and MYR4.25/USD, respectively, due to continued uncertainties from the US- China Trade War. Our view for sustained weakening in 2020 is based on our expectations of a US-China trade deal not being reached before the presidential elections in November 2020. Risks to our forecasts are weighted to the upside, due to the potential for a trade deal and tariff relief before November 2020, as well as geopolitical risks in the Middle East pushing up crude oil prices.

We at Fitch Solutions expect the sex scandal allegedly involving Economic Affairs Minister Azmin Ali to remain a key source of disquiet for the ruling Pakatan Harapan coalition. This scandal, as well as Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's unilateral appointment of Latheefa Koya as Malaysia's anti-corruption chief, will likely intensify the rivalry between supporters of Anwar Ibrahim and those of Azmin, especially within the coalition's largest party, Parti Keadilan Rakyat. While our core scenario is still for Anwar to succeed Mahathir, we expect the situation to worsen in the absence of more concrete signals that the succession plan is intact and will be adhered to.

Major Forecast Changes:

We have revised our 2019 real GDP growth forecast to 4.6%, from 4.2% previously.

Key Risks:

Malaysia's economy is relatively well diversified and not particularly at risk from external shocks. The largest threat to the Malaysian economy comes from a rapid unwinding of the household credit boom that has taken place over the past few years since the global financial crisis. This has the potential to result in a collapse in domestic demand amid declining property prices. This is not our core view, however, as debt service ratios remain manageable at current levels.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Revising Growth Upwards On Brightening Investment Outlook
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • External Trade And Investment Outlook
  • Current Account To Remain In Surplus Amid Trade War
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: MAIN IMPORTS & EXPORTS
    • TABLE: MAIN IMPORT & EXPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Bank Negara Malaysia To Cut Rates In 2020
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPENDITURE AND REVENUE CATEGORIES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • Currency Forecast
  • Malaysian Ringgit To Weaken Into 2020 Amid Trade War
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Malaysia Country Risk Q1 2020Contents10-Year Forecast
  • The Malaysian Economy To 2028
  • Long-Term Real GDP Growth To Slow To 4.4%
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Continued Tussle Over Succession To Mar Politics
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Electoral Politics To Remain Uncertain
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Economic Openness
    • TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
    • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
  • Utilities Network
    • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
    • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
    • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISK
    • TABLE: WATER RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Downside Revisions To Stabilise Somewhat, But Policy Risks Remain
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: MALAYSIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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