国家风险评估报告 - 马来西亚
Malaysia Country Risk Report Q4 2019
|出版商||Fitch Solutions, Inc.||商品编码||203083|
|出版日期||内容资讯||英文 65 Pages
|国家风险评估报告 - 马来西亚 Malaysia Country Risk Report Q4 2019|
|出版日期: 2019年08月05日||内容资讯: 英文 65 Pages||
We maintain our 2019 real GDP growth forecast at 4.2%, marking a slowdown from 2018's print at 4.7%. Investment growth will likely remain subdued due to base effects, while the positive impact of construction projects resuming or commencing in 2019 will see little feed-through over the remainder of the year. Exports will likely face headwinds due to the re-escalation of US-China trade tensions.
We expect Bank Negara Malaysia to hold its benchmark Overnight Policy Rate at 3.00% through 2019 following a 25bps cut on May 7. Rising inflation over the rest of 2019 will close the window on further cuts, while a brightening growth outlook on the back of the revival of the East Coast Rail Link and Bandar Malaysia projects will relieve pressure on the central bank to ease further. The rising risk of re-escalation in US-China trade tensions remains the key downside risk to this view, especially after the US threat to hike tariffs on USD200bn worth of Chinese imports.
We maintain our forecast for the fiscal deficit to come in at 3.7% of GDP in 2019, as revenues continue to face downside pressure and expenditures, upside pressure. A softening global economic outlook due to rising trade tensions will likely weigh on revenues through both reduced economic activity and through lower oil prices. The need to bailout two national agencies deeply in debt will likely increase expenditures. Declining support for the government remains the key downside risk to fiscal consolidation efforts, as narrowing the deficit would likely require enacting unpopular policies to increase revenue and reduce spending.
We at Fitch Solutions have revised our 2019 average forecast for the ringgit to MYR4.15/USD, from MYR4.05/USD previously, to reflect risks posed by the re- escalation of US-China trade tensions in May. We remain slightly bearish on the unit over the long-term and maintain our 2020 average forecast at MYR4.25/USD.
The state of global trade relations will have a big impact on ringgit performance over the forecast period and we outline an upside and a downside risk scenario.
The degree of ethnic polarisation has increased since the Pakatan Harapan came to power after the general elections on May 9 2018, and is likely to deepen over the coming quarters as the opposition continues to play the race card. This has negative implications for social stability, and could eventually cost the government its support with even the non-Malays but we still regard the risk of violence as being low. The lack of national consensus is also likely to impede reforms, which increases the risk of Malaysia falling into the middle income trap.
We have revised our 2019 and 2020 exchange rate forecasts to MYR4.15/USD and MYR4.25/USD, respectively, from MYR4.05/USD and MYR4.15/USD previously Our policy interest rate forecast for 2019 is now 3.00%, from 3.25% previously.
Malaysia's economy is relatively well diversified and not particularly at risk from external shocks. The largest threat to the Malaysian economy comes from a rapid unwind of the household credit boom that has taken place over the past few years since the global financial crisis. This has the potential to result in a collapse in domestic demand amid declining property prices. This is not our core view, however, as debt service ratios remain manageable at current levels.