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国家风险评估报告 - 印度

India Country Risk Report Q1 2020

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品编码 203079
出版日期 内容资讯 英文 91 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内
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国家风险评估报告 - 印度 India Country Risk Report Q1 2020
出版日期: 2019年10月25日内容资讯: 英文 91 Pages
简介

印度的实质GDP成长率由于High base效果与制造业衰退,从前一年同时期的8.2%大幅降低至7.1%。反映第2季的减速,2018年3月期的成长预测往下修正,从上次的7.3%改成7.1%。预计整体通货膨胀率成长会比至今预测的还缓慢,印度储备银行(RBI)预计在2018年到2019年间将回购利率设定在6.5%、2019年到2020年间设定在6.75%。原油价格的反弹招致印度贸易条件的恶化,预测卢比会再度走弱。此外,政治不透明、信用违约交换扩大、财政恶化可能性等可能也是卢比体质变弱的重要因素。

本报告调查了印度的国家风险,并统整了针对政经风险概要、SWOT分析、经济成长预测与趋势、金融政策、市场预测、国内外政治情势等资讯。

目录

执行摘要

  • 核心总览
  • 主要风险
  • 国家风险概要
  • 经济风险指数
  • 政治风险指数
  • SWOT分析
  • 经济 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 经济预测
  • 经济成长预测
  • 受到政治与影子银行的负面影响,印度成长减缓
  • 支出别GDP预测
  • 外部Position预测
  • 金融政策
  • 软性通货膨胀推动印度抓紧金融政策
  • 金融政策框架
  • 财政政策与公债预测
  • 印度选举费用昂贵是由于2018年的财政赤字
  • 结构性财政Position
  • 通货预测
  • 短期内印度卢比会走弱
  • 本报告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research发表,并不是Fitch Ratings的信用排名。报告中的评论和资料,都是仅由Fitch Solutions Macro Research及独立资讯来源所获得。Fitch Ratings的分析师并未与Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享资料。
  • 2028年为止的印度经济
  • 印度成长能符合期待吗?
  • 政治预测
  • 国内政治
  • 莫迪总理在州选战失利,重选前景黯淡
  • 长期政治预测
  • 转换成重视商业的立场
  • 运用风险
  • 纷争风险
  • 交通网
  • 世界总体趋势预测
  • 变动性导致成长迟缓
  • 索引表

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目录
Product Code: CFIN_20200101

Key View:

India's real GDP growth slumped even further in Q1 of FY2019/20 (April-March) to 5.0% y-o-y, from 5.8% y-o-y in Q4 FY2018/19, due mainly to a sharp slowdown in private consumption growth. While we continue to forecast growth to pick up over the coming quarters, supported by reforms, fiscal stimulus and favourable base effects, we now expect the rebound to be weaker than before, given a subdued external and private consumption outlook. Therefore, we are revising our forecast for growth to come in at 6.4% in FY2019/20, down from 6.8% previously.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its benchmark repurchase and reverse repurchase rates by 35 basis points (bps) at its August 7 monetary policy meeting to 5.40% and 5.15% respectively. Given that the extent of monetary easing in the 2019 year-to-date still appears to be insufficient in lifting economic activity, we expect the RBI to cut its policy interest rates by a further 40bps by the end of March 2020. Subdued inflationary pressures, combined with an urgent need to provide further economic stimulus to support economic activity inform our view for further easing. Risks to our forecast are still weighted to the downside, as a poor monetary policy transmission mechanism in India could necessitate steeper interest rate cuts than we currently expect. We have revised our forecast for the Indian central government fiscal deficit to 3.4%, from 3.6% previously, which continues to reflect our view for the government to miss its revised 3.3% fiscal deficit target for FY2019/20. We continue to believe that the government's revenue projections are too rosy, and this will likely see the government miss its goal of reducing its fiscal deficit to 3.0% by FY2020/21. The expenditure allocation of the full Union Budget remains consistent with the interim budget. Efforts to introduce additional stimulus measures to support economic growth over and above the interim budget appear to be lacking in the full budget.

We expect the Indian rupee to remain on a broad depreciatory path against the US dollar. Over the short term, a narrowing of real interest differentials with the US and a worsening terms of trade would put pressure on the rupee, while the central bank's focus on growth support would likely spur foreign exchange market interventions to limit rupee strength. Over the longer term, rupee overvaluation, higher inflation in India relative to the US, and periods of risk-off sentiment should exert downside pressure on the currency, although a possible further dovish turn by the US Federal Reserve could put a floor to this weakness. Accordingly, we maintain our forecast for the rupee to average INR70.50/USD in 2019, but are revising our forecast for the rupee to average INR74.00/USD in 2020, from INR72.00/USD previously.

We at Fitch Solutions believe that clashes between India and Pakistan could intensify over the coming months due to India's revocation of Kashmir's special status, although the conflict is likely to be contained within Kashmir. While not our core view, we see rising risk of military conflict between India and Pakistan, given the likelihood of an extended Indian military presence in Kashmir, and Pakistan's interest in challenging India's control of the region. China, an interested third party, is unlikely to materially intervene in the conflict as long as the Line of Actual Control separating it and India is respected. In light of ongoing elevated tensions between the two nations, we are revising our Short-Term Political Risk Index scores for India and Pakistan to 67.6 and 47.1 respectively out of 100, from 71.0 and 47.5 previously.

Key Risks:

Downside Risks To Growth: We expect slowing global economic growth to pose headwinds to India's Make in India campaign through slower foreign direct invest- ments growth in the manufacturing sector. Additionally, there is also the risk of banking sector asset quality worsening following the central bank's revision to its stress asset resolution framework in June 2019, which appears to show a softer stance towards the resolution of non-performing loans in the sector. A high load of non-performing loans on bank balance sheets will reduce monetary policy transmission as banks, with a high level of risk on their books, would be unwilling to lower their lending interest rates in line with policy interest rates. Poor monetary policy transmission could see growth underperform our expectations.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Key Risks

Country Risk Summary

  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index

SWOT

  • Economic – SWOT Analysis
  • Political – SWOT Analysis

Economic Outlook

Economic Growth Outlook

  • Growth To Record A Softer Rebound Over FY2019/20
    • India's real GDP growth slumped even further in Q1 of FY2019/20 (April-March) to 5.0% y-o-y, from 5.8% y-o-y in Q4 FY2018/19, due mainly to a sharp slowdown in private consumption growth
  • TABLE: FDI REFORMS ANNOUNCED ON AUGUST 29

GDP By Expenditure Outlook

  • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
  • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
  • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
  • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
  • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS

Outlook On External Position

  • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
  • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
  • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS

Monetary Policy

  • Reserve Bank Of India's Easing Cycle Has More Room To Run
    • The RBI cut its benchmark repo and reverse repo rates by 35bps at its August 7 monetary policy meeting to 5.40% and 5.15% respectively

Monetary Policy Framework

  • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS

Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook

  • India's Full FY2019/20 Union Budget Providing Little Stimulus On Top Of Interim Budget
    • We at Fitch Solutions are revising our forecast for the Indian central government fiscal deficit to 3.4%, from 3.6% previously, which continues to reflect our view for the government to miss its revised 3.3% fiscal deficit target for FY2019/20
  • TABLE: KEY EXPENDITURE ANNOUNCEMENTS
  • TABLE: REVENUE SIDE MEASURES

Structural Fiscal Position

  • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
  • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS

Currency Forecast

  • Indian Rupee Weakness To Persist
    • We expect the Indian rupee to remain on a broad depreciatory path against the US dollar
  • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST

10-Year Forecast

The Indian Economy To 2028

  • Will Indian Growth Live Up To Expectations?
    • Improving demographics, structural reforms and trade liberalisation in India during the 1990s set the stage for an explosion in the country's domestic savings rate, which, in turn, ignited economic growth in the 2000s. Going forward, favourable demographics and trade integration should remain strong tailwinds. However, should India's reform momentum continue to disappoint, the country could struggle to generate sufficient savings growth to finance its investment needs, with headline economic growth suffering as a result. With this in mind, we maintain a sanguine, if cautious, long-term growth outlook with a 10-year average real GDP growth rate of 7.0%
  • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

Political Outlook

Domestic Politics

  • India-Pakistan Skirmishes Over Kashmir To Intensify, But All-Out War Unlikely
    • We at Fitch Solutions believe that clashes between India and Pakistan could intensify over the coming months due to India's revocation of Kashmir's special status, although the conflict is likely to be contained within Kashmir
  • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Long-Term Political Outlook

  • A Second Chance To Reform The Economy
    • The National Democratic Alliance's absolute majority in the Lower House bodes well for India's economic and political landscape over the coming decade. Continued reform momentum bodes well for further improvement in India's business environment, and we expect this to put strong tailwinds behind growth. The main challenges will continue to be tackling obstructionism from regional governments and traditional interest groups, and ensuring that future economic growth consolidates a politically moderate middle class

Operational Risk

  • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK

Economic Openness

  • TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
  • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
  • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
  • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI

Utilities Network

  • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
  • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
  • TABLE: WATER RISKS
  • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS

Global Macro Outlook

  • Downside Revisions To Stabilise Somewhat, But Policy Risks Remain
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y

Index Tables

  • TABLE: INDIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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