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市场调查报告书

国家风险评估报告 - 印度

India Country Risk Report Q2 2020

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品编码 203079
出版日期 内容资讯 英文 79 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内
价格
国家风险评估报告 - 印度 India Country Risk Report Q2 2020
出版日期: 2020年02月21日内容资讯: 英文 79 Pages
简介

印度的实质GDP成长率由于High base效果与制造业衰退,从前一年同时期的8.2%大幅降低至7.1%。反映第2季的减速,2018年3月期的成长预测往下修正,从上次的7.3%改成7.1%。预计整体通货膨胀率成长会比至今预测的还缓慢,印度储备银行(RBI)预计在2018年到2019年间将回购利率设定在6.5%、2019年到2020年间设定在6.75%。原油价格的反弹招致印度贸易条件的恶化,预测卢比会再度走弱。此外,政治不透明、信用违约交换扩大、财政恶化可能性等可能也是卢比体质变弱的重要因素。

本报告调查了印度的国家风险,并统整了针对政经风险概要、SWOT分析、经济成长预测与趋势、金融政策、市场预测、国内外政治情势等资讯。

目录

执行摘要

  • 核心总览
  • 主要风险
  • 国家风险概要
  • 经济风险指数
  • 政治风险指数
  • SWOT分析
  • 经济 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 经济预测
  • 经济成长预测
  • 受到政治与影子银行的负面影响,印度成长减缓
  • 支出别GDP预测
  • 外部Position预测
  • 金融政策
  • 软性通货膨胀推动印度抓紧金融政策
  • 金融政策框架
  • 财政政策与公债预测
  • 印度选举费用昂贵是由于2018年的财政赤字
  • 结构性财政Position
  • 通货预测
  • 短期内印度卢比会走弱
  • 本报告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research发表,并不是Fitch Ratings的信用排名。报告中的评论和资料,都是仅由Fitch Solutions Macro Research及独立资讯来源所获得。Fitch Ratings的分析师并未与Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享资料。
  • 2028年为止的印度经济
  • 印度成长能符合期待吗?
  • 政治预测
  • 国内政治
  • 莫迪总理在州选战失利,重选前景黯淡
  • 长期政治预测
  • 转换成重视商业的立场
  • 运用风险
  • 纷争风险
  • 交通网
  • 世界总体趋势预测
  • 变动性导致成长迟缓
  • 索引表

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目录
Product Code: CFIN_20200401

India's real GDP growth slowed further to 4.5% y-o-y in Q2 of FY2019/20 (April-March), from 5.0% y-o-y in the first quarter, mainly owing to a collapse in investment

growth, which outweighed soft recoveries in private and government consumption. In light of a softer than expected first half, in addition to a weak growth outlook

over H2 FY2019/20, we have revised our FY2019/20 full year growth forecast to 5.1%, down from 6.4% previously. We expect continued economic weakness to

be owing to weak private consumption growth as well as weak gross fixed capital formation growth. That said, we expect robust government consumption growth

and an improving net export contribution (owing to a sharper fall in imports growth than exports) to prop up growth over the second half of the fiscal year.

The RBI held its benchmark repurchase (repo) and reverse repo during its December 5 monetary policy meeting at 5.15% and 4.90%, respectively. We continue to

forecast the RBI's repo and reverse repo rate to fall by 40bps to 4.75% and 4.50%, respectively, by the end of FY2020/21 (April-March), with risks to our policy rate

forecasts weighted to the downside. Rising inflationary pressures would constrain the central bank's ability to ease further to stimulate growth over the near term,

given its mandate to keep inflation below 6.0%. However, we believe that the RBI will eventually prioritise growth in this cycle, given the transitory nature of high

food inflation, and ease further in 2020 following more clarity around fiscal support from the FY2020/21 (April-March) Union Budget due in February 2020.

We have revised our forecast for India's central fiscal deficit to come in at 3.6% of GDP in FY2019/20 (April-March), from 3.4% previously, reflecting our view for a

larger slippage versus the government's 3.3% target. We believe that this will mainly be due to weak revenue collection as a result of sluggish economic growth

and the government's sweeping corporate tax cut in September amid no intention to reduce fiscal spending.

We continue to expect the Indian rupee to remain on a long-term weakening trajectory against the US dollar, and average INR73.00/USD in 2020 and INR75.00/

USD in 2021 (revised from INR74.00/USD and INR76.00/USD respectively). Over the short term, a narrowing nominal interest differential with the US and worsening

terms of trade will weigh on the rupee. The central bank's focus on growth will likely also see it favour a weaker rupee to support export competitiveness. Over the

longer term, we expect the rupee's overvaluation and structurally higher inflation relative to the US to exert downside pressure on the currency.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Sharp Downward Revision To India's Growth Outlook
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • India's Monetary Easing Cycle To Continue
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • India To Record A Larger Central Fiscal Deficit Due To Weak Revenue Collection
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • Currency Forecast
  • Indian Rupee On A Weakening Trajectory
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
  • The Indian Economy To 2029
  • Will India's Growth Live Up To Expectations?
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • India's Resistance To RCEP To Have Long-Term Domestic And Foreign Policy Implications
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • A Second Chance To Reform The Indian Economy
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Conflict Risk
    • TABLE: MAIN ACTIVE TERRORIST GROUPS
    • TABLE: POLITICAL VIOLENCE RISK
    • TABLE: MAJOR INTERSTATE CONFLICT FLASHPOINTS
    • TABLE: MILITARY PROFILE AND DEFENCE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO CONFLICT RISK
  • Transport Network
    • TABLE: ROAD RISKS
    • TABLE: RAIL RISKS
    • TABLE: PORTS AND INLAND WATERWAY RISKS
    • TABLE: AIR TRANSPORT RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Growth Stabilising, With EMs Set To Accelerate In 2020
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: INDIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS