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市场调查报告书

国家风险评估报告 - 越南

Vietnam Country Risk Report Q1 2020

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品编码 177811
出版日期 内容资讯 英文 71 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内
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国家风险评估报告 - 越南 Vietnam Country Risk Report Q1 2020
出版日期: 2019年10月25日内容资讯: 英文 71 Pages
简介

越南经济在2018年成长7.1%,但是其市场开放性与对外资的依赖增加,暗示越南无法逃离日渐升高的贸易保护主义与世界性经济成长迟缓的影响。制造业会成为带领越南经济成长的主要力量。2019年,越南的实质GDP成长率预计将减低至6.5%,但在整体区域会是经济成长最快速的国家之一。越南国家银行(SBV)计画在2019年进一步强化金融政策。越南盾受到稳健对外直接投资的流入、健全的经常收支、中央银行的积极性介入所支持,目前对美元汇率稳定,但是预计会因实质有效汇率和高度通货膨胀缓缓下降。外交方面,预测越南会强化和俄国在经济及军事上的合作。俄国经济由于西方各国的经济制裁而受到打击,俄国计画对越南等东南亚国家的出口多元化。

本报告调查了越南的国家风险,并统整了针对政经风险概要、SWOT分析、经济成长预测与趋势、金融政策、市场预测、国内外政治情势等资讯。

目录

执行摘要

  • 核心总览
  • 主要预测变更点
  • 主要风险
  • 国家风险概要
  • 经济风险指数
  • 政治风险指数
  • SWOT分析
  • 经济 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 经济预测
  • 经济成长预测
  • 虽然有成长迟缓的可能性,但越南依旧保持在地区的优势
  • 预测支出别GDP
  • 外部Position预测
  • 金融政策
  • 国家银行在2019年优先稳定总体经济
  • 金融政策框架
  • 财政政策与公债预测
  • 2019年,越南财政赤字扩大的可能性很高
  • 结构性财政Position
  • 本报告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research发表,并不是Fitch Ratings的信用排名。报告中的评论和资料,都是仅由Fitch Solutions Macro Research及独立资讯来源所获得。Fitch Ratings的分析师并未与Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享资料。
  • 越南盾的短期稳定
  • 10年预测
  • 到2028年为止的越南经济
  • 有品质成长的新焦点
  • 政治预测
  • 国内政治
  • 越南与俄国2国关系的进一步强化
  • 长期政治预测
  • 权力独占不可能持续
  • 运用风险
  • 纷争风险
  • 交通网
  • 世界总体趋势
  • 成长负面风险
  • 索引表

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目录
Product Code: CFVN_20200101

Executive summary:

We at Fitch Solutions have revised up our real GDP growth forecast for Vietnam to 6.9% in 2019, from 6.5% previously. Real GDP growth accelerated to 7.3% y-o-y in Q319, from 6.6% y-o-y in Q219, driven primarily by stronger growth from the manufacturing sector. The influx of companies from China as a result of the US-China trade war appears to be putting increasing stress on infrastructure and labour in Vietnam, and we believe that these structural challenges may cap growth over the short term. While we expect manufacturing growth to top out over the near term, we believe that headline growth is likely to be supported by a strengthening of the growth in construction and service sectors.

The State Bank of Vietnam announced a surprise 25 basis point interest rate cut on September 13, which would take its refinancing and discount rates to 6.00% and 4.00%, from 6.25% and 4.25% previously, effective September 16. We expect the central bank to remain on hold over the coming months to observe the impact of its rate cut on the economy before making further adjustments to its monetary policy. While the rate cut would likely provide some support to growth, we do not expect it to be substantial given the infrastructure bottlenecks in the country restricting economic activity growth. We are revising our forecast for inflation to average 3.7% in 2020, from 3.3% previously, on the back of this rate cut and a rebound in food inflation as a result of the African swine fever, which now affects all provinces, and a rise in housing materials inflation.

We have revised our forecast for Vietnam's fiscal deficit (including principal repayments) to come in at 6.6% of GDP in 2019 and 2020, from 5.7% and 5.8% previously. Falling Vietnamese government bond yields in line with the ongoing global decline in yields would slow the growth in interest liabilities. However, we expect this to be more than offset by higher borrowing as the government seeks to accelerate the progress of key infrastructure projects in a bid to ease the congestion in major cities as a result of the influx of companies relocating their operations to Vietnam amid the US-China trade war. We continue to expect the Vietnamese dong to remain broadly stable against the greenback over the near term, supported by robust FDI inflows, US dollar purchases by businesses, and a healthy foreign reserves position. Over the longer term, we maintain our view for the dong to remain on a gradual deprecia- tory path against the US dollar, due to its overvaluation and Vietnam's higher inflation in relation to the US. We maintain our forecasts for the unit to average VND23,300/USD in 2019, VND23,475/USD in 2020 and VND23,650/USD in 2021.

The US' rising trade deficit with Vietnam, exacerbated by the ongoing trade war between the US and several major global exporters, increases the risk of Viet- namese exports coming under punitive tariffs from the US. However, given Washington's view that an unchecked China poses a major security threat, we believe that the US' need to maintain strong diplomatic relations with Vietnam to balance growing Chinese influence in the region could play in Vietnam's favour with regard to the continuation of cordial trade relations with the US.

Key Risks:

The potential for renewed maritime dispute with China poses downside risks to Vietnam's otherwise stable short-term political outlook. Should the Trump administration introduce fresh tariffs on US imports of Vietnamese goods, this would pose a salient risk to Vietnam's export sector, and consequently our economic growth forecast, given the sector's strong orientation to the US economy. Economic policy slippages could dent investor confidence, and result in a slowdown in FDI inflows and manufacturing growth.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Strong Growth In Vietnam, But Bottleneck Risks Rising
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • State Bank Of Vietnam To Hold Monetary Policy After Surprise Rate Cut
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Vietnam's Fiscal Deficit To Rise Despite Falling Interest Rates
    • TABLE: THE CHOICE DESTINATION FOR RELOCATION
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • Currency Forecast
  • Stable Outlook For The Vietnamese Dong
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Vietnam Country Risk Q1 2020Contents10-Year Forecast
  • The Vietnamese Economy To 2028
  • A New Focus On Quality Growth
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • What Is The Likelihood Of Vietnam Coming Under The US' Tariffs?
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Key Political Challenges Over The Coming Decade
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Economic Openness
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
    • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
  • Utilities Network
    • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
    • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
    • TABLE: WATER RISKS
    • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Manufacturing Weakness And Rising Political Risk To Weigh On Growth
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: VIETNAM - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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