国家风险评估报告 - 越南
Vietnam Country Risk Report Q4 2019
|出版商||Fitch Solutions, Inc.||商品编码||177811|
|出版日期||内容资讯||英文 61 Pages
|国家风险评估报告 - 越南 Vietnam Country Risk Report Q4 2019|
|出版日期: 2019年08月21日||内容资讯: 英文 61 Pages||
We at Fitch Solutions maintain our forecast for Vietnam's real GDP growth to come in at 6.5% in 2019, down from 7.1% in 2018. In addition to unfavourable base effects over the remainder of 2019, slowing global demand will weigh on manufacturing growth. That said, robust growth in construction activity and services will likely continue to provide some support to the overall growth print.
We maintain our view for the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to hold its benchmark refinancing and discount rate at 6.25% and 4.25% respectively, in addition to maintaining its 14% credit growth target for the remainder of 2019. We expect the SBV to continue managing financial stability risks through loan directives and macro-prudential measures.
At Fitch Solutions, we maintain our forecast for Vietnam's fiscal deficit to remain wide at 5.7% in 2019, following a revised 5.9% fiscal deficit recorded in 2018. We continue to expect Vietnam's open-door trade policy and the slow progress of state-owned entity divestment to pressure revenue collection. However, falling yields of newly issued government securities will likely help to ease the upside pressure on expenditures from interest payments.
We continue to expect the Vietnamese dong to remain broadly stable against the greenback over the near term, supported by robust foreign direct investment inflows and foreign borrowing by domestic banks. Over the longer term, we maintain our view for the dong to remain on a gradual depreciatory path against the US dollar, due to its overvaluation and Vietnam's higher inflation vis-a-vis the US. In light of the VND stability over H119, we are revising our forecasts for the unit to average VND23,300/USD in 2019 and VND23,475/USD in 2020, from VND23,440/USD and VND23,850/USD previously.
At Fitch Solutions, we see a continuation of tensions in the South China Sea between Vietnam and China. We expect disputes to persist as long as China continues to occupy the Paracel Islands, which Vietnam also claims as its own. Disputes are likely to continue taking the form of China pressurising Vietnam to halt its drilling projects in these waters, as well as disagreements between Vietnamese fishermen and Chinese authorities.
The potential for renewed maritime dispute with China poses downside risks to Vietnam's otherwise stable short-term political outlook.
Should the Trump administration introduce fresh tariffs on US imports of Vietnamese goods, this would pose a salient risk to Vietnam's export sector, and consequently our economic growth forecast, given the sector's strong orientation to the US economy.
Economic policy slippages could dent investor confidence, and result in a slowdown in foreign direct investment inflows and manufacturing growth.