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市场调查报告书

国家风险评估报告 - 越南

Vietnam Country Risk Report Q4 2019

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品编码 177811
出版日期 内容资讯 英文 61 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内
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国家风险评估报告 - 越南 Vietnam Country Risk Report Q4 2019
出版日期: 2019年08月21日内容资讯: 英文 61 Pages
简介

越南经济在2018年成长7.1%,但是其市场开放性与对外资的依赖增加,暗示越南无法逃离日渐升高的贸易保护主义与世界性经济成长迟缓的影响。制造业会成为带领越南经济成长的主要力量。2019年,越南的实质GDP成长率预计将减低至6.5%,但在整体区域会是经济成长最快速的国家之一。越南国家银行(SBV)计画在2019年进一步强化金融政策。越南盾受到稳健对外直接投资的流入、健全的经常收支、中央银行的积极性介入所支持,目前对美元汇率稳定,但是预计会因实质有效汇率和高度通货膨胀缓缓下降。外交方面,预测越南会强化和俄国在经济及军事上的合作。俄国经济由于西方各国的经济制裁而受到打击,俄国计画对越南等东南亚国家的出口多元化。

本报告调查了越南的国家风险,并统整了针对政经风险概要、SWOT分析、经济成长预测与趋势、金融政策、市场预测、国内外政治情势等资讯。

目录

执行摘要

  • 核心总览
  • 主要预测变更点
  • 主要风险
  • 国家风险概要
  • 经济风险指数
  • 政治风险指数
  • SWOT分析
  • 经济 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 经济预测
  • 经济成长预测
  • 虽然有成长迟缓的可能性,但越南依旧保持在地区的优势
  • 预测支出别GDP
  • 外部Position预测
  • 金融政策
  • 国家银行在2019年优先稳定总体经济
  • 金融政策框架
  • 财政政策与公债预测
  • 2019年,越南财政赤字扩大的可能性很高
  • 结构性财政Position
  • 本报告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research发表,并不是Fitch Ratings的信用排名。报告中的评论和资料,都是仅由Fitch Solutions Macro Research及独立资讯来源所获得。Fitch Ratings的分析师并未与Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享资料。
  • 越南盾的短期稳定
  • 10年预测
  • 到2028年为止的越南经济
  • 有品质成长的新焦点
  • 政治预测
  • 国内政治
  • 越南与俄国2国关系的进一步强化
  • 长期政治预测
  • 权力独占不可能持续
  • 运用风险
  • 纷争风险
  • 交通网
  • 世界总体趋势
  • 成长负面风险
  • 索引表

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目录
Product Code: CFVN_20191001

We at Fitch Solutions maintain our forecast for Vietnam's real GDP growth to come in at 6.5% in 2019, down from 7.1% in 2018. In addition to unfavourable base effects over the remainder of 2019, slowing global demand will weigh on manufacturing growth. That said, robust growth in construction activity and services will likely continue to provide some support to the overall growth print.

We maintain our view for the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to hold its benchmark refinancing and discount rate at 6.25% and 4.25% respectively, in addition to maintaining its 14% credit growth target for the remainder of 2019. We expect the SBV to continue managing financial stability risks through loan directives and macro-prudential measures.

At Fitch Solutions, we maintain our forecast for Vietnam's fiscal deficit to remain wide at 5.7% in 2019, following a revised 5.9% fiscal deficit recorded in 2018. We continue to expect Vietnam's open-door trade policy and the slow progress of state-owned entity divestment to pressure revenue collection. However, falling yields of newly issued government securities will likely help to ease the upside pressure on expenditures from interest payments.

We continue to expect the Vietnamese dong to remain broadly stable against the greenback over the near term, supported by robust foreign direct investment inflows and foreign borrowing by domestic banks. Over the longer term, we maintain our view for the dong to remain on a gradual depreciatory path against the US dollar, due to its overvaluation and Vietnam's higher inflation vis-a-vis the US. In light of the VND stability over H119, we are revising our forecasts for the unit to average VND23,300/USD in 2019 and VND23,475/USD in 2020, from VND23,440/USD and VND23,850/USD previously.

At Fitch Solutions, we see a continuation of tensions in the South China Sea between Vietnam and China. We expect disputes to persist as long as China continues to occupy the Paracel Islands, which Vietnam also claims as its own. Disputes are likely to continue taking the form of China pressurising Vietnam to halt its drilling projects in these waters, as well as disagreements between Vietnamese fishermen and Chinese authorities.

Key Risks:

The potential for renewed maritime dispute with China poses downside risks to Vietnam's otherwise stable short-term political outlook.

Should the Trump administration introduce fresh tariffs on US imports of Vietnamese goods, this would pose a salient risk to Vietnam's export sector, and consequently our economic growth forecast, given the sector's strong orientation to the US economy.

Economic policy slippages could dent investor confidence, and result in a slowdown in foreign direct investment inflows and manufacturing growth.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Growth To Remain Under Pressure In 2019
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Interest Rates To Remain On Hold Through 2019
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Fiscal Deficit To Remain Wide On Lower Tariffs And SOE Divestment Delay
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES, 2016
  • Currency Forecast
  • Vietnamese Dong To Remain Steady Over The Near Term
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • Vietnam Country Risk Q4 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
  • The Vietnamese Economy To 2028
  • A New Focus On Quality Growth
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Vietnam-China Tensions To Persist In The South China Sea
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Key Political Challenges Over The Coming Decade
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Labour Costs
    • TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
  • Legal Environment
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC BARRIERS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Global Growth Deceleration, But Policy Increasingly Supportive
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: VIETNAM - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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