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市场调查报告书

国家风险评估报告 - 越南

Vietnam Country Risk Report Q2 2020

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品编码 177811
出版日期 内容资讯 英文 67 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内
价格
国家风险评估报告 - 越南 Vietnam Country Risk Report Q2 2020
出版日期: 2020年02月21日内容资讯: 英文 67 Pages
简介

越南经济在2018年成长7.1%,但是其市场开放性与对外资的依赖增加,暗示越南无法逃离日渐升高的贸易保护主义与世界性经济成长迟缓的影响。制造业会成为带领越南经济成长的主要力量。2019年,越南的实质GDP成长率预计将减低至6.5%,但在整体区域会是经济成长最快速的国家之一。越南国家银行(SBV)计画在2019年进一步强化金融政策。越南盾受到稳健对外直接投资的流入、健全的经常收支、中央银行的积极性介入所支持,目前对美元汇率稳定,但是预计会因实质有效汇率和高度通货膨胀缓缓下降。外交方面,预测越南会强化和俄国在经济及军事上的合作。俄国经济由于西方各国的经济制裁而受到打击,俄国计画对越南等东南亚国家的出口多元化。

本报告调查了越南的国家风险,并统整了针对政经风险概要、SWOT分析、经济成长预测与趋势、金融政策、市场预测、国内外政治情势等资讯。

目录

执行摘要

  • 核心总览
  • 主要预测变更点
  • 主要风险
  • 国家风险概要
  • 经济风险指数
  • 政治风险指数
  • SWOT分析
  • 经济 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 经济预测
  • 经济成长预测
  • 虽然有成长迟缓的可能性,但越南依旧保持在地区的优势
  • 预测支出别GDP
  • 外部Position预测
  • 金融政策
  • 国家银行在2019年优先稳定总体经济
  • 金融政策框架
  • 财政政策与公债预测
  • 2019年,越南财政赤字扩大的可能性很高
  • 结构性财政Position
  • 本报告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research发表,并不是Fitch Ratings的信用排名。报告中的评论和资料,都是仅由Fitch Solutions Macro Research及独立资讯来源所获得。Fitch Ratings的分析师并未与Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享资料。
  • 越南盾的短期稳定
  • 10年预测
  • 到2028年为止的越南经济
  • 有品质成长的新焦点
  • 政治预测
  • 国内政治
  • 越南与俄国2国关系的进一步强化
  • 长期政治预测
  • 权力独占不可能持续
  • 运用风险
  • 纷争风险
  • 交通网
  • 世界总体趋势
  • 成长负面风险
  • 索引表

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目录
Product Code: CFVN_20200401

We forecast Vietnam's 2020 real GDP growth to come in at 6.8%. Real GDP growth eased to 7.0% y-o-y in Q419, from an upwardly revised 7.5% y-o-y in Q319,

due mainly to an easing of growth in the industrial sector. Infrastructure and human capital bottlenecks will likely continue to cap growth of the manufacturing

sector, and continued damming upstream of the Mekong River from Laos and the outbreak of African swine fever will weigh on growth of the agriculture sector.

That said, this is likely to be partially offset by a strengthening of growth in construction and services.

We forecast credit growth in Vietnam to stabilise at 12.5% in 2020 versus 12.1% in 2019. The fulfilment of Basel II requirements of larger lenders by 2020, on

top of targeted monetary easing during the end of 2019, should support the pick-up in credit growth. A stabilisation of credit growth would reduce pressure

on the Vietnamese central bank to ease interest rates further, and allow the central bank to instead focus on managing overshooting inflation. We have revised

our 2020 average inflation forecast to 5.2%, from 3.5% previously.

We maintain our 2019 fiscal deficit forecast at 6.6%, but have revised up our 2020 and 2021 fiscal deficit forecasts for Vietnam to 7.0% and 7.2%, respectively,

from 6.6% previously. This follows the release of the Ministry of Finance's three-year budget estimates in October, which indicates high debt repayments over

2020 and 2021. Our forecasts are fairly in line with the government's projections, given the government's strong track record of meeting their fiscal deficit tar-

gets. Risks to our deficit forecast stem heavily from debt repayment. A larger repayment than the government had initially forecast would see the deficit come

in wider than we forecast, vice versa.

We maintain our stable outlook for the Vietnamese dong over the short term, and for only slight currency weakness over the longer term. Accordingly, we

forecast the Vietnamese dong to average VND23,475/USD in 2020 and VND23,650/USD in 2021. Weaker foreign direct investment inflow and higher imports

will be key drivers of dong weakness over the near term, although a strong foreign reserves position should allow the central bank to safeguard the currency

against excessive downside volatility to avoid potential punitive measures from the US. We maintain our view for the dong to gradually depreciate against the

US dollar over the long term due to its overvaluation and Vietnam's higher inflation vis-a-vis the US.

Vietnam's bilateral relations with its Mekong region neighbours appear to be broadly improving. Being the only country in the region which is at loggerheads

with China over a maritime dispute, Vietnam is likely doing so in an attempt to defend itself against growing Chinese influence over its Mekong neighbours.

Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar, would benefit from economic support as a result of the regional diplomatic tussle between Vietnam and China.

Key Risks

The potential for renewed maritime dispute with China poses downside risks to Vietnam's otherwise stable short-term political outlook.

Should the Trump administration introduce fresh tariffs on US imports of Vietnamese goods, this would pose a salient risk to Vietnam's export sector, and

consequently our economic growth forecast, given the sector's strong orientation to the US economy.

Economic policy slippages could dent investor confidence, and result in a slowdown in FDI inflows and manufacturing growth.

Vietnam Country Risk Q2 2020fitchsolutions.com

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Economic Growth To Ease Slightly In 2020
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Credit Growth To Stabilise, Inflation To Be Elevated In 2020
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Fiscal Deficit Set To See A Short-Term Spike
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES (2016)
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • Currency Forecast
  • Vietnamese Dong To Average Slightly Weaker
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.Vietnam Country Risk Q2 2020Contents10-Year Forecast
  • The Vietnamese Economy To 2029
  • A New Focus On Quality Growth
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Vietnam's Bilateral Relations With Laos, Cambodia, And Myanmar Steadily Improving
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
    • TABLE: KEY RECENT ENGAGEMENTS (VIETNAM-LAOS)
    • TABLE: KEY RECENT ENGAGEMENTS (VIETNAM-CAMBODIA)
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Key Political Challenges Over The Coming Decade
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Conflict Risk
    • TABLE: MAIN ACTIVE TERRORIST GROUPS
    • TABLE: POLITICAL VIOLENCE RISK
    • TABLE: MAJOR INTERSTATE CONFLICT FLASHPOINTS
    • TABLE: MILITARY PROFILE AND DEFENSE AGREEMENT
    • TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO CONFLICT RISK
  • Transport Network
    • TABLE: ROAD RISKS
    • TABLE: RAIL RISKS
    • TABLE: PORTS AND INLAND WATERWAY RISKS
    • TABLE: AIR TRANSPORT RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Economic Stabilisation Continues And Inflation Picking Up Slowly
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: VIETNAM - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS