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国家风险报告 - 新加坡

Singapore Country Risk Report Q4 2019

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品编码 177803
出版日期 内容资讯 英文 57 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内
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国家风险报告 - 新加坡 Singapore Country Risk Report Q4 2019
出版日期: 2019年08月21日内容资讯: 英文 57 Pages
简介

主要觀察

被称为新加坡「第4世代」的领导人显现出将出任更大领导角色的迹象。在强烈的反对声浪中,相信下一代的领导人将较前任面对更多挑战。然而,由于第三代领导人不太可能从政治舞台上消失,预估整体新加坡政治情势将持稳定状态。外交政策方面,因为新加坡与马来西亚之间的新旧课题重燃,预估两国将保持冷淡的关系。新加坡经济由于持续的贸易纷争、国内建筑产业疲软、个人消费低迷等因素,预估未来几个季度将会降温?。政府在财政方面展现谨慎的姿势,为了因应人口老龄化等结构性转变的支出增加,已规划了未来数年的GTS税收增收。

主要风险

仅管新加坡的基本面良好,由于中国经济的快速放缓等带来的外部需求疲软和国内经济重组,可能会导致未来几个季度的技术性衰退。

目录

摘要整理

  • 核心觀点
  • 主要预测变化
  • 主要风险
  • 国家风险概要
  • 经济风险指数
  • 政治风险指数
  • SWOT分析
  • 经济 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 经济展望
  • 经济成长展望
  • 随者全球逆风高升,2019年新加坡成长将进一步疲软
  • GDP展望:按支出
  • 外部情势展望
  • 货币政策
  • 对外展望的软弱成为新加坡金融管理当局的紧缩课题
  • 货币政策框架
  • 财政政策及公债展望
  • 新加坡为减轻对外风险的财政政策放松
  • 结构性财政情况
  • 货币预测
  • 仅管贸易存在不确定性,但强健的宏觀基础支持著新加坡元
  • 本报告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research发布,并非Fitch Ratings的信用评级。报告中的评论及数据来自Fitch Solutions Macro Research和独立情报来源。Fitch Ratings的分析师并未和Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享资料。
  • 2028年前的新加坡经济
  • 2028年前的稳定成长轨迹
  • 政治展望
  • 国内政治
  • 海上及空域争端促使新加坡和马来西亚的两国关系恶化
  • 长期政治展望
  • 预估未来10年政治自由化可能降缓
  • 操作风险
  • 冲突风险
  • 运输网路
  • 全球宏觀展望
  • 成长下行风险
  • 索引表

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目录
Product Code: CFSG_20191001

In light of a weak economic performance in H119, which saw growth contracting in Q219, we have revised our growth forecast for 2019 to 0.9%, from 2.2% previously. The threat of a technical recession is now more pronounced, but we believe that the government and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) have room to implement policies to support growth in the second part of the year. This could cushion the slowdown in domestic demand, but the external sector will remain a wild card as a US-China trade deal is far from certain, despite the recent apparent thawing of relations between the two countries.

Following a dismal GDP growth print in Q219, we expect the MAS to reduce the slope of the S$NEER band during its October biannual policy meeting. Downside risk to growth still loom large over Singapore, both externally and domestically. Weak external demand is the main reason underpinning our view for MAS to act in October. Our view is also informed by our expectations for inflationary pressure to remain mild, which will not constrain the MAS in easing monetary policy.

We maintain our view that Singapore will register an overall fiscal deficit representing 0.4% of GDP in FY2019/20, narrower than the Ministry of Finance's forecast of -0.7% of GDP. The steady collection of revenue during the first five months of 2019 suggests that Singapore will likely beat its revenue target for FY20 despite the ongoing economic slowdown. Downside risk to our view remains as expenditure could rise more than expected to offset the downside risk to growth.

We expect the Singapore dollar to come under mild downward pressure against the US dollar as market participants increasingly price in a likely easing by MAS in October. Over the long-term horizon, the SGD is likely to stabilise on the back of an improvement of the external sector. We have thus revised our forecasts with the Singapore dollar to average SGD1.3650/USD in 2019 and SGD1.3500/USD in 2020.

Major Forecast Changes:

We have revised our real GDP growth forecast to 0.9% in 2019, down from 2.2% previously, in light of a weak start to the year. We have revised our currency forecasts with the Singapore dollar to average SGD1.3650/USD in 2019 as market participants increasingly price in a likely easing by MAS in October.

Key Risks:

The risk of a technical recession has risen in Singapore after growth contracted in Q219 amid weak external demand (led by a rapidly slowing Chinese economy) and a sluggish domestic economy.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Singapore Has Several Options To Contain Threat Of Technical Recession
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS
    • TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Rising Prospects Of Monetary Policy Easing In Singapore
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Singapore On Track To Beat Budget Estimates
    • TABLE: OPERATING REVENUE (SGDMN)
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE SOURCES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • Singapore Country Risk Q4 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsCurrency Forecast
  • Singapore's MAS Likely Easing To Weaken SGD In Short Term
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • 10-Year Forecast
  • The Singaporean Economy To 2028
  • Solid Growth Trajectory To 2028
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Concerns Over The Application Of Singapore's 'Fake News' Law
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
    • TABLE: 2019 WORLD PRESS FREEDOM INDEX
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Political Liberalisation Likely To Be Slow Over Next Decade
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Labour Costs
    • TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
  • Legal Environment
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC BARRIERS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Global Growth Deceleration, But Policy Increasingly Supportive
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % Y-O-Y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: SINGAPORE - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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