表纸
市场调查报告书

国家风险报告 - 新加坡

Singapore Country Risk Report Q1 2020

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品编码 177803
出版日期 内容资讯 英文 71 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内
价格
Back to Top
国家风险报告 - 新加坡 Singapore Country Risk Report Q1 2020
出版日期: 2019年10月25日内容资讯: 英文 71 Pages
简介

主要觀察

被称为新加坡「第4世代」的领导人显现出将出任更大领导角色的迹象。在强烈的反对声浪中,相信下一代的领导人将较前任面对更多挑战。然而,由于第三代领导人不太可能从政治舞台上消失,预估整体新加坡政治情势将持稳定状态。外交政策方面,因为新加坡与马来西亚之间的新旧课题重燃,预估两国将保持冷淡的关系。新加坡经济由于持续的贸易纷争、国内建筑产业疲软、个人消费低迷等因素,预估未来几个季度将会降温?。政府在财政方面展现谨慎的姿势,为了因应人口老龄化等结构性转变的支出增加,已规划了未来数年的GTS税收增收。

主要风险

仅管新加坡的基本面良好,由于中国经济的快速放缓等带来的外部需求疲软和国内经济重组,可能会导致未来几个季度的技术性衰退。

目录

摘要整理

  • 核心觀点
  • 主要预测变化
  • 主要风险
  • 国家风险概要
  • 经济风险指数
  • 政治风险指数
  • SWOT分析
  • 经济 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 经济展望
  • 经济成长展望
  • 随者全球逆风高升,2019年新加坡成长将进一步疲软
  • GDP展望:按支出
  • 外部情势展望
  • 货币政策
  • 对外展望的软弱成为新加坡金融管理当局的紧缩课题
  • 货币政策框架
  • 财政政策及公债展望
  • 新加坡为减轻对外风险的财政政策放松
  • 结构性财政情况
  • 货币预测
  • 仅管贸易存在不确定性,但强健的宏觀基础支持著新加坡元
  • 本报告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research发布,并非Fitch Ratings的信用评级。报告中的评论及数据来自Fitch Solutions Macro Research和独立情报来源。Fitch Ratings的分析师并未和Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享资料。
  • 2028年前的新加坡经济
  • 2028年前的稳定成长轨迹
  • 政治展望
  • 国内政治
  • 海上及空域争端促使新加坡和马来西亚的两国关系恶化
  • 长期政治展望
  • 预估未来10年政治自由化可能降缓
  • 操作风险
  • 冲突风险
  • 运输网路
  • 全球宏觀展望
  • 成长下行风险
  • 索引表

本网页内容可能与最新版本有所差异。详细情况请与我们联系。

目录
Product Code: CFSG_20200101

Executive summary:

We have revised our 2019 real GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and maintained our 2020 growth forecast at 1.7%. The manufacturing sector will continue to under- perform the rest of the economy due to the likely persistence of external headwinds stemming from elevated US-China trade barriers. Investment and services are likely to benefit from policy support, low base effects and to some extent, the unrest in Hong Kong, providing the basis for a slight growth recovery in 2020.

We expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to keep its dovish stance in the foreseeable future and to ease policy further in 2020. Economic growth is likely to remain slow in 2020, due to stiff headwinds facing the exporting sector, which will encourage the central bank to guide the Singapore dollar weaker to provide support to the economy. We also expect benign inflation over the coming months due to a softer oil price and economic outlook, underpinning MAS's easing stance.

We now expect the primary budget deficit to come in at 1.2% and 2.2% of GDP in 2019 and 2020, respectively, widening from 1.1% and 1.2% previously. The chief reason for these revisions is the negative impact of the slowing economy on revenues. The government is also likely to carry out fiscal stimulus over the coming quarters to support the economy, which would see a larger increase in expenditure than in better years. Plans for further revenue expansion, including a GST hike, signal the government's continued commitment to fiscal responsibility, while ample fiscal reserves place it in a strong position to fiscally stimulate the economy.

We expect the slowing economy to place downside pressure on the Singapore dollar through 2020. The Singapore dollar is on track to meet our 2019 average forecast of SGD1.3650/USD, and we therefore maintain it. However, we have revised our 2020 average forecast to SGD1.3750/USD from SGD1.3500/USD previously to reflect the external challenges faced by the island-nation that should keep the Monetary Authority of Singapore on an easing path. 2021 presents better prospects for a more lasting and comprehensive resolution to the US-China trade war in our view, which bodes well for the economy and, therefore, the Singapore dollar. We thus maintain our average forecast at SGD1.3600/USD in 2021.

We now expect the next general election to be called in H120, following the formation of the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee in September, with past occurrences having preceded elections by a few months. We see little chance of the ruling People's Action Party losing power, but winning a high vote share remains vital to establishing the credibility and legitimacy of the incoming fourth generation of leaders. Key figures of the Workers' Party have recently lost a civil lawsuit concerning their mismanagement of public monies, which is likely to dampen their prospects at the coming polls. The opposition as a whole is likely to remain weak and fragmented and is unlikely to mount a credible challenge of the kind put up by the Pakatan Harapan coalition marshalled by Mahathir Mohamad in Malaysia in 2018.

Major Forecast Changes:

We have revised our real GDP growth forecast to 0.5% in 2019, down from 0.9% previously.

We now expect the primary budget deficit to come in at 1.2% and 2.2% of GDP in 2019 and 2020, respectively, widening from 1.1% and 1.2% previously.

We have revised our 2020 average currency forecast to SGD1.3750/USD from SGD1.3500/USD previously.

Key Risks:

The risk of a technical recession has risen in Singapore after two quarters of sluggish economic growth and which could be precipitated by a more pronounced

Chinese economic slowdown amid the US-China trade war.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Technical Recession Unlikely, Slight Recovery In 2020
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS
    • TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
  • Monetary Policy
  • Monetary Easing To Continue Throughout 2020
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Wider Deficits As Singapore Poised For Fiscal Stimulus
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE SOURCES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • The Singaporean Economy To 2028
  • Currency Forecast
  • Singapore Dollar To Weaken Further In 2020 Amid Economic Slowdown
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Singapore Country Risk Q1 2020Contents10-Year Forecast
  • Solid Growth Trajectory To 2028
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Likely H120 Elections To See PAP Remain Singapore Government
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Political Liberalisation Likely To Be Slow Over Next Decade
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Economic Openness
    • TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONE AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
    • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
  • Utilities Network
    • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
    • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
    • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
    • TABLE: WATER RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Manufacturing Weakness And Rising Political Risk To Weigh On Growth
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: SINGAPORE - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
Back to Top