国家风险报告 - 新加坡
Singapore Country Risk Report Q4 2019
|出版商||Fitch Solutions, Inc.||商品编码||177803|
|出版日期||内容资讯||英文 57 Pages
|国家风险报告 - 新加坡 Singapore Country Risk Report Q4 2019|
|出版日期: 2019年08月21日||内容资讯: 英文 57 Pages||
In light of a weak economic performance in H119, which saw growth contracting in Q219, we have revised our growth forecast for 2019 to 0.9%, from 2.2% previously. The threat of a technical recession is now more pronounced, but we believe that the government and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) have room to implement policies to support growth in the second part of the year. This could cushion the slowdown in domestic demand, but the external sector will remain a wild card as a US-China trade deal is far from certain, despite the recent apparent thawing of relations between the two countries.
Following a dismal GDP growth print in Q219, we expect the MAS to reduce the slope of the S$NEER band during its October biannual policy meeting. Downside risk to growth still loom large over Singapore, both externally and domestically. Weak external demand is the main reason underpinning our view for MAS to act in October. Our view is also informed by our expectations for inflationary pressure to remain mild, which will not constrain the MAS in easing monetary policy.
We maintain our view that Singapore will register an overall fiscal deficit representing 0.4% of GDP in FY2019/20, narrower than the Ministry of Finance's forecast of -0.7% of GDP. The steady collection of revenue during the first five months of 2019 suggests that Singapore will likely beat its revenue target for FY20 despite the ongoing economic slowdown. Downside risk to our view remains as expenditure could rise more than expected to offset the downside risk to growth.
We expect the Singapore dollar to come under mild downward pressure against the US dollar as market participants increasingly price in a likely easing by MAS in October. Over the long-term horizon, the SGD is likely to stabilise on the back of an improvement of the external sector. We have thus revised our forecasts with the Singapore dollar to average SGD1.3650/USD in 2019 and SGD1.3500/USD in 2020.
We have revised our real GDP growth forecast to 0.9% in 2019, down from 2.2% previously, in light of a weak start to the year. We have revised our currency forecasts with the Singapore dollar to average SGD1.3650/USD in 2019 as market participants increasingly price in a likely easing by MAS in October.
The risk of a technical recession has risen in Singapore after growth contracted in Q219 amid weak external demand (led by a rapidly slowing Chinese economy) and a sluggish domestic economy.