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市场调查报告书

国家风险报告 - 新加坡

Singapore Country Risk Report Q2 2020

出版商 Fitch Solutions, Inc. 商品编码 177803
出版日期 内容资讯 英文 65 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内
价格
国家风险报告 - 新加坡 Singapore Country Risk Report Q2 2020
出版日期: 2020年02月21日内容资讯: 英文 65 Pages
简介

主要觀察

被称为新加坡「第4世代」的领导人显现出将出任更大领导角色的迹象。在强烈的反对声浪中,相信下一代的领导人将较前任面对更多挑战。然而,由于第三代领导人不太可能从政治舞台上消失,预估整体新加坡政治情势将持稳定状态。外交政策方面,因为新加坡与马来西亚之间的新旧课题重燃,预估两国将保持冷淡的关系。新加坡经济由于持续的贸易纷争、国内建筑产业疲软、个人消费低迷等因素,预估未来几个季度将会降温?。政府在财政方面展现谨慎的姿势,为了因应人口老龄化等结构性转变的支出增加,已规划了未来数年的GTS税收增收。

主要风险

仅管新加坡的基本面良好,由于中国经济的快速放缓等带来的外部需求疲软和国内经济重组,可能会导致未来几个季度的技术性衰退。

目录

摘要整理

  • 核心觀点
  • 主要预测变化
  • 主要风险
  • 国家风险概要
  • 经济风险指数
  • 政治风险指数
  • SWOT分析
  • 经济 - SWOT分析
  • 政治 - SWOT分析
  • 经济展望
  • 经济成长展望
  • 随者全球逆风高升,2019年新加坡成长将进一步疲软
  • GDP展望:按支出
  • 外部情势展望
  • 货币政策
  • 对外展望的软弱成为新加坡金融管理当局的紧缩课题
  • 货币政策框架
  • 财政政策及公债展望
  • 新加坡为减轻对外风险的财政政策放松
  • 结构性财政情况
  • 货币预测
  • 仅管贸易存在不确定性,但强健的宏觀基础支持著新加坡元
  • 本报告由Fitch Solutions Macro Research发布,并非Fitch Ratings的信用评级。报告中的评论及数据来自Fitch Solutions Macro Research和独立情报来源。Fitch Ratings的分析师并未和Fitch Solutions Macro Research共享资料。
  • 2028年前的新加坡经济
  • 2028年前的稳定成长轨迹
  • 政治展望
  • 国内政治
  • 海上及空域争端促使新加坡和马来西亚的两国关系恶化
  • 长期政治展望
  • 预估未来10年政治自由化可能降缓
  • 操作风险
  • 冲突风险
  • 运输网路
  • 全球宏觀展望
  • 成长下行风险
  • 索引表

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目录
Product Code: CFSG_20200401

Our 2020 real GDP growth forecast remains at 1.7%, up from 0.7% growth in 2019. Manufacturing will likely continue to drag heavily on the economy in

2020, as the external environment remains highly uncertain despite the 'phase-one' trade deal. We see fixed investment remaining steady due to ongoing

public infrastructure projects and low base effects. An extended crisis in Hong Kong could bring further benefits should businesses act on contingency

plans and relocate.

We continue to expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore to maintain its easing stance in 2020. We expect the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak to

pose further downside risks to an economy that narrowly avoided a technical recession in 2019, which would strengthen the case for more easing to support

the economy, especially the export-oriented manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, inflation is likely to remain at near the 0.6% y-o-y average seen in 2019, given

the rough balance of rising food price pressures and a softer outlook for oil prices.

We at Fitch Solutions maintain our primary budget deficit forecast at 2.2% of GDP for 2020 but see a possible range of revision to between 2.3-2.6% of GDP

over the coming months. This is because of the downside risks to the economy posed by the coronavirus outbreak, which already has 18 confirmed cases in

Singapore as of February 3. Singapore's free and open economy will likely be negatively affected by the economic slowdown the virus is likely to cause in China,

and is exposed to further downside risk from the potential for community outbreaks to occur in other countries. A slower economy would weigh further on

revenues, while the government is likely to implement an even more expansionary budget to counteract the negative shock from the virus and both dynamics

would widen the primary deficit. We await a better understanding of the virus' transmission mechanisms before making a revision.

We at Fitch Solutions have revised our 2020 and 2021 average exchange rate forecasts to SGD1.3850/USD and SGD1.3750/USD respectively, from SGD1.3750/

USD and SGD1.3600/USD previously. The likely downside to the Singapore economy from the coronavirus outbreak in China means that the case for monetary

easing is strengthened, leading to short-term depreciatory pressures as markets price in a higher likelihood of easing. We still hold a more optimistic outlook for

2021, by which time a vaccine for the coronavirus is likely to be commercially available, which would reduce the disruption even if there are still cases around

the world. Prospects for a comprehensive and lasting resolution to the US-China trade war are also better.

We at Fitch Solutions see longer-term risks to Singapore's ability to maintain a free and open economy as growth slows along with a maturing economy and

a more protectionist political mood taking hold around the world. These risks are heightened by the nativist appeal mounted and likely to be maintained

by the opposition, which seeks to build on the strategy's success during the 2011 General Election. Even fair and judicious application of the fake news law,

Protection from Online Falsehoods and Manipulation Act or POFMA as it is formally known, could backfire in a less favourable economic environment, leading

to perceptions of a cover-up that would put open economic policies at further risk.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised our 2020 average currency forecast to SGD1.3850/USD from SGD1.3750/USD previously.

Key Risks

The risk of a technical recession has risen in Singapore after two quarters of sluggish economic growth and which could be precipitated by a more pronounced

Chinese economic slowdown amid the outbreak of the coronavirus.

Singapore Country Risk Q2 2020fitchsolutions.com

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • 2020 To See Slight Economic Recovery
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS
    • TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
  • Monetary Policy
  • Coronavirus Strengthens Case For Monetary Easing In 2020
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Coronavirus Woes To Widen Primary Deficit In 2020
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE SOURCES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.Singapore Country Risk Q2 2020ContentsCurrency Forecast
  • Coronavirus Puts Singapore Dollar On Even Weaker 2020 Footing
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • 10-Year Forecast
  • The Singaporean Economy To 2029
  • Solid Growth Trajectory To 2029
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Rising Nativist Sentiment Could Undermine Singapore's Business Environment
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Political Liberalisation Likely To Be Slow Over Next Decade
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Conflict Risk
    • TABLE: MAIN ACTIVE TERRORIST GROUPS
    • TABLE: POLITICAL VIOLENCE RISK
    • TABLE: MAJOR INTERSTATE CONFLICT FLASHPOINTS
    • TABLE: MILITARY PROFILE AND DEFENCE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO CONFLICT RISK
  • Transport Network
    • TABLE: ROAD RISKS
    • TABLE: RAIL RISKS
    • TABLE: PORTS AND INLAND WATERWAY RISKS
    • TABLE: AIR TRANSPORT RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Economic Stabilisation Continues And Inflation Picking Up Slowly
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % Y-O-Y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: SINGAPORE - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS