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市场调查报告书

西欧的通讯市场趋势、预测

Western Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023

出版商 Analysys Mason 商品编码 337314
出版日期 内容信息 英文 40 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内
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西欧的通讯市场趋势、预测 Western Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023
出版日期: 2018年10月29日 内容信息: 英文 40 Slides
简介

本报告提供西欧整体及主要16个国家330个以上的行动、固定KPI的5年预测,各行动、固定服务类型及主要各国趋势、促进要素、预测的前提条件相关详细的分析,业者的策略的概要,及对行动、固定业者的建议等汇整数据。

调查对象国家

  • 奥地利
  • 比利时
  • 丹麦
  • 芬兰
  • 法国
  • 德国
  • 希腊
  • 爱尔兰
  • 义大利
  • 荷兰
  • 挪威
  • 葡萄牙
  • 西班牙
  • 瑞典
  • 瑞士
  • 英国

主要KPI的5年预测

  • 联机数
    • 行动
      • 终端、行动宽带、IoT
      • 预付/契约为基础的
      • 2G、3G、4G、5G
      • 智能型手机、非智能型手机
    • 固定
      • 语音、宽带、IPTV、拨接上网
      • 窄频语音、VoBB
      • DSL、FTTH/B、电缆、BFWA、5G、其他
  • 语音流量
    • 固定、行动的发信时间、MoU
  • 收益
    • 行动
      • 服务、零售
      • 预付/契约型
      • 终端、行动宽带、IoT
      • 终端语音、通讯、数据
    • 固定
      • 服务、零售
      • 语音、宽带、IPTV、拨接上网、商务服务
      • DSL、FTTH/B、电缆、BFWA、其他
  • ARPU
    • 行动
      • SIM、终端
      • 预付/契约型
      • 终端语音、数据

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目录

"Broadband competition is intensifying as operators race to roll out FTTP infrastructure."

Operators across Western Europe (WE) are competing to roll out FTTP infrastructure, and to be the first to launch 5G mobile services. However, these new networks will be unlikely to boost revenue in most cases, and the increased competition brought by alternative access networks will put further pressure on prices.

This report provides:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 330 mobile and fixed KPIs for Western Europe, as a whole and for 16 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Regions modelled

  • Western Europe (WE)

Countries modelled individually

  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • UK

Connections
Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband,1 IoT2
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue
Mobile

  • Service,3 retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband,1 IoT2
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service,3 retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

1Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data.

2IoT connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.

3Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale.

Table of Contents

  • 8. Executive summary and recommendations
  • 9. The Western Europe telecoms market will only grow modestly; operators' focus is on the roll-out of FTTP and 5G mobile networks
  • 10. The economic outlook for Western Europe has improved, but retail revenue growth will be limited or negative across the region
  • 11. Geographical coverage: the majority of fixed broadband connections will use NGA technologies by 2023 in all countries except Greece
  • 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13. Key recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 15. Market context: there is limited scope for increased penetration in Western Europe (with a few exceptions); revenue growth must come from higher ASPU
  • 16. Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries
  • 17. Key drivers at a glance for each Western Europe market
  • 18. Market overview: the overall telecoms revenue outlook for Western Europe remains flat; increased fixed broadband penetration is the main driver of revenue growth
  • 19. Mobile: 4G will become the default technology for all market segments; this will lead to a strong growth in mobile data usage, but not a growth in ARPU
  • 20. Mobile: mobile penetration will decline gradually in most countries as the contract share of connections increases and replacement cycles lengthen
  • 21. Mobile: ARPU is noticeably higher in the two non-EU countries in WE, where the incumbents have a high market share
  • 22. Mobile: operators across Western Europe are preparing for the launch of 5G services in the next 2 years
  • 23. Fixed: government initiatives will drive further growth in broadband take-up, and NGA will account for four fifths of all fixed connections by 2023
  • 24. Fixed: broadband penetration in most countries is nearing saturation; regional penetration growth will be driven by activity in Italy, Portugal and Spain
  • 25. Fixed: ASPU is higher in countries outside the EU, just as in the mobile market
  • 26. Fixed: improvements in fixed broadband coverage and the availability of high-speed fibre services will support continued revenue growth
  • 27. Business services: traditional telecoms providers will struggle to capture the growth in business services revenue
  • 28. IoT: the IoT sector is an important area of growth in Western Europe, as operators seek alternative revenue streams
  • 29. Pay TV: revenue from traditional pay-TV in Western Europe will decrease after 2021, but revenue growth will still be strong for OTT video services
  • 30. Individual country forecasts
  • 31. France: operators' investments in fixed roll-outs will make fixed broadband more attractive, leading to growth in the number of connections
  • 32. France: ARPU has started to stabilise after years of declines due to intense competition, leading to positive revenue growth
  • 33. France: improved technology, a better market situation and good economic performance will lead to low but stable telecoms revenue growth in France
  • 34. France: forecast changes
  • 35. Germany: the decline in fixed voice revenue will hinder the total telecoms revenue growth
  • 36. Germany: 5G will be introduced commercially in 2020, causing the 4G share of connections to decline from 2021 onwards
  • 37. Germany: there will be significant technological improvements in both the mobile and fixed segments, but they will have a limited impact on revenue
  • 38. Germany: forecast changes
  • 39. Italy: competition in both the mobile and fixed markets will remain intense
  • 40. Italy: new entrant Iliad has further increased competition in the mobile market, and in the fixed market, coverage and take-up of fibre will grow
  • 41. Italy: 5G frequencies were released in October 2018; investments in fibre networks will lead to growth in fixed broadband connectivity
  • 42. Italy: forecast changes
  • 43. Spain: moderate service revenue growth will be driven by an NGA-based broadband revenue increase
  • 44. Spain: Operators' focus on rolling out FTTP/B will help to maintain high fixed broadband ASPU levels during the forecast period
  • 45. Spain: operators will focus on 5G deployments and on the further increase of fibre broadband coverage
  • 46. Spain: forecast changes
  • 47. UK: revenue growth has slowed as opportunities for service enrichment have dwindled
  • 48. UK: mobile ARPU will continue to grow modestly despite strong traffic growth; fixed broadband ASPU growth will be driven by NGA take-up
  • 49. UK: the regulator is encouraging operators to roll out “full fibre” FTTP connectivity, and this will lead to a transformation of the broadband market
  • 50. UK: forecast changes
  • 51. Methodology
  • 52. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 53. Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 54. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 55. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 56. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 57. About the authors
  • 58. About the authors
  • 59. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 60. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 61. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Western Europe, 2013--2023
  • Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Western Europe, 2017--2023
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Western Europe, 2017 and 20231
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Western Europe
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the 16 countries modelled individually in Western Europe,
  • Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Western Europe
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2017) and future trajectory (2018--2023), by country, Western Europe
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Western Europe (EUR billion), 2013--2023
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Western Europe, 2013--2023
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Western Europe (million), 2013--
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Western Europe (EUR per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Western Europe, 2013--2023
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Western Europe (MB per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe, 2013--2023
  • Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe, 2013--2023
  • Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2013--2023
  • Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2013--2023
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Western Europe (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Western Europe (EUR billion), 2013--2023
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Western Europe, 2013--2023
  • Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Western Europe (GB per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Western Europe, 2013--2023
  • Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Western Europe, 2013--2023
  • Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Western Europe, 2013--2023
  • Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Western Europe, 2013--2023
  • Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Western Europe, 2013--2023
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Western Europe, 2013--2023
  • Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay-TV, Western Europe, 2013--2023
  • Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, France (EUR billion), 2013--2023
  • Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, France (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, France, 2013--2023
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, France (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, France, 2013--2023
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and traditional pay-TV ASPU, France (EUR per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, France (MB per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, France (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, France, 2013--2023
  • Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Germany (EUR billion), 2013--2023
  • Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Germany (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Germany, 2013--2023
  • Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Germany (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Germany, 2013--2023
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Germany (EUR per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Germany (MB per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Germany (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Germany, 2013--2023
  • Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Italy (EUR billion), 2013--2023
  • Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Italy (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Italy, 2013--2023
  • Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Italy (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Italy, 2013--2023
  • Figure 50: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Italy (EUR per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Italy (MB per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Italy (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Italy, 2013--2023
  • Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Spain (EUR billion), 2013--2023
  • Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Spain (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Spain, 2013--2023
  • Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Spain (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Spain, 2013--
  • Figure 59: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Spain (EUR per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Spain (MB per month), 2013--
  • Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Spain (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Spain, 2013--2023
  • Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, UK (GBP billion), --2023
  • Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, UK (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, UK, 2013--
  • Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, UK (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, UK, 2013--2023
  • Figure 68: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and traditional pay-TV ASPU, UK (GBP per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, UK (MB per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, UK (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, UK, 2013--2023
  • Figure 72a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 72b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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