Abstract
About this report
Mintel' s re-forecasting puts markets in realistic light
In less than nine months, the UK has changed from booming, overheated economy to an economy in crisis. In a fast-developing environment, up-to-date market and consumer data is more critical than ever.
It takes time for changes in macro-economic variables to have an impact on consumer spending. But it is now clear that consumers' expectations, attitudes and beliefs have changed dramatically in the past six months. As a result, Mintel' s market size estimates and forecasts based on different consumer expectations warrant revision. For the first time in its near-40 years of delivering market and consumer insights, Mintel has conducted an exhaustive mid-cycle re-evaluation of consumer market forecasts published in 2007 & 2008.
The macro-economic changes
Since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, crisis upon crisis has hit the UK financial services sector with several key players having to be rescued from the threat of insolvency. The consequences for the UK economy have been dramatic as the government and markets have reacted to unfolding events. Some of the falls include:
- interest rates from 5% to 0.5% (Oct. ' 08 to Mar ' 09)
- the sterling/dollar exchange rate from $2 to the pound to $1.45 (Jun. ' 08 to Feb ' 09)
- the sterling/euro exchange rate from 1.25 euros to the pound to a low of 1.01 euros (most of ' 08 to Jan. ' 09)
- the retail price index (RPI) from 5% to 0.1% (Sept. ' 08 to Jan ' 09)
- the consumer price index (CPI) from over 5% to 3% (Sept. ' 08 to Jan ' 09 less dramatic than RPI primarily as it excludes mortgage interest payments and housing depreciation).
The significance of these changes
Mintel has tracked UK consumer expenditure for almost 40 years, including the recessions of the seventies, 1980-81 and 1991-92.
Mintel market size estimates combine historic data trends with the most current consumer data, published data and trade insight. Using a range of economic variables, primarily consumer-related, such as consumer expenditure, personal disposable income and the consumer price index, we have re-estimated and re-forecast the market data in more than 300 of our UK reports.
This work will enable us to understand better which sectors are suffering most in the current economic crisis. How are consumers likely to spend their incomes in the coming years? Which sectors will suffer and benefit most? How should suppliers react in the short-, medium- and long-term?
The worst impact of recession is skewed towards certain sectors where big ticket, discretionary purchases are the norm: automotive; any sector where there is a close correlation with house purchasing (eg brown & white goods, floor coverings), technology and travel. But within each sector, there are winners and losers. Are car-buyers switching from new to used cars? Is the after-sales market benefiting as car owners delay purchases? When will an upturn take place?
Are consumers trading up to better quality products, trading down, or trading over? Each segment of each sector has to be analysed separately and in comparison with others.
Presentation of data
Mintel' s revised data is presented in an easy-to-use manner:
- relevant commentary about the sector, with discussion of pertinent changes in the sector and an overall assessment of the current state of the market
- a chart of the previous estimates and forecasts for a sector alongside the revised data
- tables for the period 2002-2012 or 2003-2013, incorporating
- previous and revised estimates & forecasts at current prices
- the absolute value of the change to the market forecast
- index numbers to show percentage changes
- In most cases, we have added a further paragraph bringing to the attention of users of a scenario based on a more pessimistic forecast of economic circumstances in 2009. This is based on February ONS (Office of National Statistics) data. This should be seen as indicative of the impact of further economic decline: a worse case (but not worst case) scenario.
Table of Contents
- Introduction
- Mintel' s re-forecasting puts markets in realistic light
- The macro-economic changes
- The significance of these changes
- Presentation of data
- What next?
- Methodology
- Differences
- Annuities
- Figure 1: Forecast of new pension annuity business (volume), 2003-13
- Figure 2: Forecast of new pension annuity business (volume), 2003-13
- Figure 3: Forecast of new pension annuity business (value), 2003-13
- Figure 4: Forecast of new pension annuity business (value), 2003-13
- Figure 5: Forecast of new income drawdown business (volume) 2003-13
- Figure 6: Forecast of new income drawdown business (volume) 2003-13
- Figure 7: Forecast of new income drawdown business (value) 2003-13
- Figure 8: Forecast of new income drawdown business (value) 2003-13
- Factors incorporated
- Life Insurance and Protection
- Figure 9: Value forecast of new individual regular life insurance
premiums, (term assurance) 2003-13
- Figure 10: Value forecast of new individual regular life insurance
premiums, (term assurance) 2003-13
- Figure 11: Value forecast of new individual regular life insurance
premiums, (whole-of-life) 2003-13
- Figure 12: Value forecast of new individual regular life insurance
premiums, (whole-of-life) 2003-13
- Factors used in the forecast
- Occupational Pensions
- Figure 13: Forecast of new insurance administered occupational pension
business, regular premiums, 2002-12
- Figure 14: Forecast of new insurance administered occupational pension
business, regular premiums, 2002-12
- Figure 15: Forecast of new insurance administered occupational pension
business, single premiums, 2002-12
- Figure 16: Forecast of new insurance administered occupational pension
business, single premiums, 2002-12
- Figure 17: Forecast of new GPP business, regular premiums, 2002-12
- Figure 18: Forecast of new GPP business, regular premiums, 2002-12
- Figure 19: Forecast of new GPP business, single premiums, 2002-12
- Figure 20: Forecast of new GPP business, single premiums, 2002-12
- Factors used in the forecast
- Personal and Stakeholder Pensions
- Figure 21: Forecast of new APE* premiums into personal and stakeholder
pensions (all products), 2003-13
- Figure 22: Forecast of new APE* premiums into personal and stakeholder
pensions, (all products) 2003-13
- Factors used in the forecast
|
|
