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市场调查报告书
多晶矽市场（2012-2016年）：供给、需求以及对全球PV产业的影响
Polysilicon 2012-2016: Supply, Demand & Implications for the Global PV Industry
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多晶矽市场（2012-2016年）：供给、需求以及对全球PV产业的影响 是由出版商Greentech Media Inc.在2012年01月所出版的。
这份英文市场调查报告书价格从美金2995起跳。
全球的Polysilicon（多晶矽）产业由于预料2011年的原材料价格大幅下滑将持续至2013年，预期今后2年间将进行大规模的市场淘汰。新加入市场的企业的生产能力、与既有供应商随近年PV（太阳电池）需求热潮而进行所制定的扩展计画，预期2013年的多晶矽生产能力将会是2010年水准的两倍。而伴随逐渐减少的PV需求，此供给过剩的状态，已经在业界领导者与生存下来的一群新参与企业之间，开始产生在生产规模、成本结构上的差异。
本报告，提出全球的Polysilicon（多晶矽）市场，汇整业界的技术、策略以及经济发展蓝图的综合分析，提示至2016年的生产以及价格/利润率的预测，分析业界的竞争情势，并提示多晶矽生产业者的生存策略等，由下列摘要形式阐述。
第1章 报告摘要
- 大型企业扩大生产能力
- 新式西门子法制造业者成长
- 金属级解决方案苦战
- 依然稳固的领导
- 2012年以后
第2章 多晶矽的加工
- 太阳能级 vs 电子级
- 来自矽土的冶金级矽（MG-Si）
- 冶金级矽（MG-Si）的加工
- 矽晶棒：单晶 vs 多晶
第3章 原材料：冶金级矽、TCS（三氯矽烷）以及矽甲烷
- 冶金级矽的原材料
- 转换技术与加工制程
- TCS原材料
- 矽甲烷原材料
第4章 多晶矽的生产
- 多晶矽生产的历史以及价格
- 矽的不足（2005-2008年）
- 产业契约条件的发展
- 多晶矽生产能力的现状
- 全球多晶矽生产能力的地理分布
- 多晶矽生产成本以及价格
第5章 生长法以及晶圆化
- 生长晶棒 vs 铸造晶棒 vs 带状矽/片状矽
- 晶圆化
- 资本设备厂商
- 晶圆于PV成本结构的经济学
- 垂直集成：多晶厂商也应该制造晶圆吗？
第6章 多晶矽的预测以及预测模式（～2016年）
- 调查方式
- 多晶矽生产能力预测（～2012年）
- 多晶矽生产预测（～2016年）
- 变化的多晶矽制造厂的市场动态
第7章 解开多晶矽的限制
- 所预测的多晶矽价格以及利润率
- 变化的产业结构
- 矽的新式加工法：已改良的冶金级矽
- 替代品的出现：薄膜生产的进步
- 结论见解
第8章 企业档案数据
Abstract
The global polysilicon industry will undergo a major shakeout over the next
two years, as the feedstock's epic 2011 price declines will continue through
2013. With new entrants bringing capacity online and incumbent suppliers
fulfilling expansion plans fomented in the PV demand boom of yesterday, global
polysilicon capacity is forecasted to double by 2013 over 2010 levels. In
today's market of waning PV demand, this over-supply has already begun to open
significant gaps in production scale and therefore cost structure between
industry leaders and an increasingly marginalized group of new entrants.
GTM Research's report on the global polysilicon market is a comprehensive
analysis of the technologies, strategies and economic roadmap for the
industry. The report includes production and price/margin forecasts to 2016,
along with incisive perspectives on the industry's competitive landscape and
survival strategies available to polysilicon producers.
To learn more about Polysilicon 2012-2016: Supply, Demand & Implications
for the Global PV Industry, download the report's preliminary Table of
Contents here.
FIGURE: Polysilicon Supply Stack by Technology and Company
Note: Company names excluded; to see complete supply stack, purchase report
above.
Source: GTM Research
QUESTIONS FOR COMPETITIVE DECISION-MAKING
- Are recent declines in polysilicon prices a result of ambitious cost
roadmaps or margin collapse brought on by weak demand?
- What is solar-grade polysilicon production globally and how will
production numbers shift over the next five years?
- What are the implications of polysilicon over-capacity at every step along
the solar supply chain?
- Which polysilicon processing technologies are providing competitive
advantages in terms of costs and quality?
- Does vertical integration offer polysilicon and/or wafer manufacturers a
strategic advantage in the current market?
- How are supply contract terms evolving?
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary
- 1.1. Majors Expand Capacity
- 1.2. New Siemens Producers Grow
- 1.3. Met-Grade Solutions Struggle
- 1.4. Guidance Remains Firm
- 1.5. 2012 and Beyond
2. POLYSILICON PROCESSIN G
- 2.1. Solar Grade vs. Electronic Grade
- 2.2. From Silica to Metallurgical Silicon (MG-Si)
- 2.3. Metallurgical Silicon (MG-Si) Processing
- 2.4. Silicon Ingots: Monocrystalline vs. Multicrystalline
3. FEEDSTOC KS - METALLUR GICAL SILICON , TCS , AND SILANE
- 3.1. Metallurgical Silicon Feedstock
- 3.2. Conversion Technology and Processes
- 3.3. TCS Feedstock
- 3.4. Silane Feedstock
4. POLYSILICON PRODUCTION
- 4.1. History of Polysilicon Production and Prices
- 4.2. The Silicon Shortage (2005-2008)
- 4.3. Evolution of Contract Terms for the Industry
- 4.4. Polysilicon Production Capacity Today
- 4.5. Geography of Global Polysilicon Capacity
- 4.6. Polysilicon Production Cost and Price
5. PULLING AND WAFERING
- 5.1. Pulled Ingot vs. Cast Ingots vs. Ribbon/Sheet
- 5.2. Wafering
- 5.3. Capital Equipment Manufacturers
- 5.4. Economics of Wafers for PV Cost Structure
- 5.5. Vertical Integration: Should poly manufacturers make wafers, too?
6. POLYSILICON PROJECTIONS AND FORECAST MODEL THROUGH 2016
- 6.1. Research Methodology
- 6.2. Polysilicon Capacity Projections to 2012
- 6.3. Polysilicon Production Projections to 2016
- 6.4. Changing Market Dynamics for Polysilicon Producers
7. UNWINDING THE POLYSILICON CONSTRAINT
- 7.1. Projected Polysilicon Prices and Margins
- 7.2. Changing Industry Structure
- 7.3. New Silicon Processing - Upgraded Metallurgical Silicon
- 7.4. Emergence of Alternatives: Gains in Thin-Film Production
- 7.5. Concluding Thoughts
8. COMPANY PROFILES
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