Abstract
Executive Summary and Conclusion
This, the third market analysis report on microsystems, is issued by NEXUS, the European microsystems network, in collaboration with WTC - Wicht Technologie Consulting. The analysis in this report provides a comprehensive assessment of the microsystems markets for the period spanning the years 2005 till 2009. This assessment, although building on previous results published by NEXUS in October 1998 and February 2002, provides a hard reappraisal of the market from an up to date perspective. In this context, this study, which was undertaken by a team of international experts, consolidates previous notions for the potential future of microsystems in terms of the target applications within existing markets as well as new directions and opportunities.
Overall, this study safely concludes that Microsystems (including MST/MEMS) sensors and actuators are consolidating their position in established markets and finding new applications, leveraging a combination of advantages ranging from low manufacturing costs, compact size, low weight and power consumption, as well as increased intelligence and multifunctionality. Over the next five years, this market is predicted to grow at a rate of 16% per year from $ 12 billion in 2004 to $ 25 billion in 2009 across a spectrum of 26 MST/MEMS products. Considering the historical definition of NEXUS - the smallest unit commercially available - the market will grow from $ 36 billion in 2004 to $ 52 billion in 2009.
Meteoric growth of consumer electronic segment.
Unsurprisingly, the IT peripherals domain will continue to be the largest sector for microsystems in terms of product numbers and market size. This sector will be dominated by read/write heads and inkjet printheads which will account for approximately $ 12 billion by 2009.
The automotive sector will remain a major application field with several high-volume products such as airbags and tire pressure monitoring systems (TPMS). Quantities in terms of the numbers of units will continue to grow at a rapid pace; however, the growth in revenue will be moderate due to the continuous pressure on prices. For example; gyroscopes will see a growth rate of 15% per year in terms of units but a moderate 8% in revenue.
Of particular note, however, is the predicted meteoric growth of the consumer electronics segment which is forecasted to treble the microsystems market size over the period 2004 to 2009. This market segment will, it is estimated, account for almost a quarter of the total $ 25 billion microsystems business by 2009. NEXUS identified the three prime drivers for MST/MEMS in this consumer electronics sector as being:
- Large screens High Definition Television for everybody. Indeed, the market for rear projection TVs is predicted to be skyrocketing from 6.5 million units in 2005 to 11.9 million units in 2009 according to iSuppli Corp.
- More storage in digital equipment. Hard Disk Drives (HDD) used within digital video cameras, music players, smart phones... Shipment of HDDs is expected to explode in consumer electronics from 10 million units in 2004 to 200 million units in 2009.
- Mobile/cellular phone handsets... offering multi-functionality, including telephony! With the introduction of MST/MEMS accelerometers by ADI into cell phone by NTT Docomo in September 2003, a number of other MST/MEMS products are following suit including pressure sensors, gyroscopes, micro-displays, micro fuel cells, and micro-fingerprint security monitors, liquid lenses, thermopiles etc.
Market sectors by MST/MEMS products: micro-displays are the new blockbuster
As an overall summary, this latest market study has assessed a total of 26 microsystems based products. Chief among these are the read/write heads and micro-displays, which it is predicted will overtake inkjet heads by 2009. Fast growing markets for microphones, RF MEMS, and tire pressure monitors are also examined along side to the more established pressure and motion sensors, which are increasingly being driven by consumer applications.
RW heads will still represent around 51% of the market in 2009. Traditional applications for PCs will grow moderately; however, the RW market is experiencing a renaissance in consumer electronics as hard disks are being deployed within music players (e.g. in the famous i-pod), in smart phones (Samsung introduced the first cell phone with HDD in 2004), as well as in digital video cameras, set top players, DVD recorders, etc.
Inkjet heads will continue to be one of the most profitable markets for MST/MEMS. The main driver for inkjet heads over the next 4 years is the printing of digital photos - especially those produced from cell phone cameras. This market is seen to be growing at 15% to 20% per annum. A major trend is the integration of non-disposable inkjet heads in the printer instead of disposable print heads in cartridges. Following the lead by Epson and Canon, HP are starting to ship printers with integrated print head. This will slow down the growth in units; however, the value of these non-disposable print heads is likely to be 3 to 5 times higher none the less.
Microdisplays are believed to be the blockbuster component for the 2004 - 2009 period. Revenues for Micro-displays will it is estimated overtake those from inkjet heads by 2009 as Texas Instruments is forging ahead with the digital light processors (DLP) chips for front projectors and rear projection TVs. Indeed, DLP technology dominated the front projector market with almost 40% market share in 2004 and is also dominating the large screen rear projection market segment. The emergence of new MST/MEMS micro displays products such as iMoD displays for mobile handsets from Qualcomm is also worth noticing.
This NEXUS study has also identified new and emerging components servicing a range of markets which include wafer probes, liquid lenses for auto focus/zoom in camera phones, micro-motors, micro-spectrometers, micro-pumps and micro-reaction products. In addition, this study has also considered products that will begin to impact markets towards the end of the decade, namely micro fuel cells, MST/MEMS memories and e-fuses, and chip coolers. Components that are currently in the research phase, but can be expected to see strong commercial pull enabled by both application potential and already existing demand.
Conclusion
The MST/MEMS market volume was worth $12 billion in 2004 and is expected to reach $25 billion in 2009. The growth is still rapid: 16% CAGR in revenue terms over the period 2004-2009. Consumer electronics will drive market growth over the next 4 years.
Within this estimate, the report identifies 14 products, each of which is expected to establish a market presence of more than $100 million by 2009. In addition, a umber of brand new entrants will add around $250 million to the total market by that time. This NEXUS report details the products and their predicted market share, and provides a comprehensive review of the underlying technologies, the main players and status from 2004 through to 2009.
Table of Contents
- 1.Introduction
- 2.Executive Summary and Conclusion
- 3.Task Force and Contributing Experts
- 4.Methodology and Definitions
- 5.Evaluation of the NEXUS Market Analysis 2000-2005
- 6.MST Application Fields
- Automotive
- IT peripherals
- Consumer and Lifestyle Products
- Telecommunications
- Medical and Life Sciences
- Household Appliances
- Industrial Process Control
- Aerospace, Defence and Homeland Security
- 7.MST Products
- Read-Write Heads
- Inkjet heads
- Microdisplays
- Pressure Sensors (pdf)
- Flow Sensors
- Accelerometers
- Gyroscopes
- IR Sensors
- Microfluidics Chips
- MOEMS for Telecommunications
- Microspectrometers
- Chemical Analysis Systems
- Inclinometers
- RF MEMS
- Microphones
- Drug Delivery Systems
- Micro Energy Sources
- Micro-reaction products
- Micro Cooling Devices
- MEMS Memories and E-fuses
- Micromachined Probes
- Micro-pumps
- Micro-mirrors for Optical Processing
- Micro-motors
- MEMS Fingerprint
- Auto-focus and zoom lenses
- 8.Regional Analysis
