南非银行部门分析

Abstract

RNCOS has released its new research report - “South African Banking Sector Analysis” - that details on the fast growing banking industry of South Africa. The South African banking industry is experiencing significant growth, especially in terms of banking assets. During 2003-2006, asset growth recorded in the South African banking industry was higher than that witnessed in the global banking industry. The Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of the industry also increased from 12.3% in December 2006 to 12.8% in December 2007, with banks maintaining their CARs above the minimum requirement of 10%.

This research report provides valuable year-on-year trend analysis on the growing banking industry of South Africa, and products and services offered by it. It' s a thorough study on the structure of the industry and gives a comprehensive overview on the driving and restraining forces operating in the industry.

• Banks deposits in South Africa are forecasted to grow at a CAGR of about 9% during 2008-2012.
• Banks loans are projected to expand at a CAGR of 10.16% during 2008-2012.
• Mortgage loans, and overdrafts and loans represented the largest portions of loans and advances, amounting to 40% and 22.5% respectively at the end of December 2007.
• The number of credit card transactions increased at a CAGR of 12.3% between 2002 and 2007.
• Net interest income of South African banks is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 6.2% during 2008-2012.

• Market analysis of different product segments in the South African banking industry.
• Evaluation of present and future market trends.
• Study of factors pushing the banking industry toward growth.
• Analysis of challenges and growth prospects for the industry.
• Competitive landscape of the industry.

This section provides overview and key financials of prominent domestic and foreign players like ABSA Group Limited, Investec Limited, FirstRand Limited, Citibank N.A., Deutsche Bank AG, and State Bank of India, operating in the South African banking industry.

Research Methodology Used in the Report

Information has been sourced from various credible sources like books, newspapers, trade journals, white papers, industry portals, government agencies, trade associations, monitoring industry news and developments, and through access to more than 3000 paid databases.

RNCOS industry forecast and analysis is based on various macro- and microeconomic factors, sector and industry specific databases, and our in-house statistical and analytical model. This model takes into account the past and current trends in an economy, and more specifically in an industry, to bring out an objective market analysis.

Our industry experts study the relationship between various industry and economic variables to ensure the required accuracy and desired check on the quality of data and information given in the report.

Table of Contents

1. Analyst View

2. South Africa - A Lucrative Banking Destination

• 2.1 Economic Development
• 2.2 Bankable Households
• 2.3 Employment
• 2.4 Black Middle Class Population
• 2.5 FSC & Mzansi Accounts
• 2.6 FDI Inflows
• 2.7 Leasing Finance & Corporate Credit
• 2.8 Mortgage Loans

3. South Africa Banking - An Overview

4. Key Performance Indicators

• 4.1 Bank Assets
• 4.2 Bank Loans
  • 4.2.1 Mortgage Loans
  • 4.2.2 Foreign Loans
  • 4.2.3 Installment Debtors
  • 4.2.4 Overdrafts & Loans
  • 4.2.5 Resale Agreements
  • 4.2.6 Credit Card Debtors
• 4.3 Bank Deposits
  • 4.3.1 Residents
  • 4.3.2 Non-residents
• 4.4 Bank Profitability & Investment Strategy
• 4.5 Payment Instruments
  • 4.5.1 Credit Card
  • 4.5.2 ATMs
  • 4.5.3 Cheque

5. Key Regulatory Developments

6. Industry Analysis

• 6.1 Risk Factors
• 6.2 Trend Analysis
• 6.3 Growth Prospects
  • 6.3.1 Partnership with Fuel Stakeholders
  • 6.3.2 Private Banking
  • 6.3.3 Card-less ATMs
  • 6.3.4 Automotive Industry
  • 6.3.5 Consumer Durable Market
  • 6.3.6 Financial Cards
  • 6.3.7 Internet Banking
  • 6.3.8 Mobile Banking
• 6.4 Growth Hurdles
  • 6.4.1 Increasing NPLs
  • 6.4.2 Broader Access to Banking Facilities
  • 6.4.3 Declining Affordability of Housing Loans
  • 6.4.4 Concentrated Banking System
  • 6.4.5 Declining Population

7. Future Outlook (2008-2012)

8. Key Players

• 8.1 Domestic Players
  • 8.1.1 ABSA Group Limited
  • 8.1.2 Standard Bank Group Limited
  • 8.1.3 FirstRand Limited
  • 8.1.4 Nedbank Group Limited
  • 8.1.5 Investec Limited
• 8.2 Foreign Players
  • 8.2.1 Citibank N.A.
  • 8.2.2 Deutsche Bank AG
  • 8.2.3 ABN AMRO Holding N.V.
  • 8.2.4 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
  • 8.2.5 State Bank of India

List of Figures:

• Figure 2-1: South Africa - Forecast for Nominal GDP (in Billion US$), 2007*-2011
• Figure 2-2: South Africa - Forecast for Number of Bankable Households* (in ‘000), 2009-2012
• Figure 2-3: South Africa - Employment (in Million), 2003-2006
• Figure 2-4: South Africa - Per Head Disposable Income (in US$), 2002-2007E
• Figure 2-5: South Africa - Bank Accounts Penetration* (%), 2006 & 2007
• Figure 2-6: South Africa - Growth in Mortgage Loans (%), 2003-2007
• Figure 4-1: South Africa - Bank Assets (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
• Figure 4-2: South Africa - Breakup of Bank Assets (%), 2007
• Figure 4-3: South Africa - Bank Loans & Advances* (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
• Figure 4-4: South Africa - Breakup of Bank Loans & Advances (%), 2007
• Figure 4-5: South Africa - Mortgage Advances (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
• Figure 4-6: South Africa - Share of Mortgage Loans by Major Banks (%), 2006 & 2007
• Figure 4-7: South Africa - Foreign Currency Loans & Advances (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
• Figure 4-8: South Africa - Installment Debtors* (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
• Figure 4-9: South Africa - Share of Installment Finance by Major Banks (%), 2006 & 2007
• Figure 4-10: South Africa - Overdrafts & Loans (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
• Figure 4-11: South Africa - Share of Overdrafts & Other Loans by Major Banks (%), 2006 & 2007
• Figure 4-12: South Africa - Loans under Resale Agreements (in Billion ZAR), 2004-2007
• Figure 4-13: South Africa - Credit Card Debtors (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
• Figure 4-14: South Africa - Deposits with Banks* (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
• Figure 4-15: South Africa - Deposits with Banks by Residents (in Billion ZAR), 2003-2007
• Figure 4-16: South Africa - Deposits with Banks by Non-residents (in Billion ZAR), 2003-2007
• Figure 4-17: South Africa - Income of Banks (in Billion ZAR), 2005-2007
• Figure 4-18: South Africa - Net Income of Banks (in Billion ZAR), 2005-2007
• Figure 4-19: South Africa - Growth in Interest Income of Banks (%), 2006 & 2007
• Figure 4-20: South Africa - Investment by Banks (in Billion ZAR), 2005-2007
• Figure 4-21: South Africa - Investment Portfolio of Banks (%), 2007
• Figure 4-22: South Africa - Share of Credit Cards by Major Banks (%), 2006 & 2007
• Figure 4-23: South Africa - Number of Credit Card Transactions (in Million), 2002-2007
• Figure 4-24: South Africa - Credit Cards Transactions (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
• Figure 4-25: South Africa - Number of ATMs* (May 2007 & 2010F)
• Figure 4-26: South Africa - Number of Cheque Transactions* (in Million), 2002-2007
• Figure 4-27: South Africa - Cheque Transactions* (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
• Figure 6-1: South Africa - Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (%), 2002-2007
• Figure 6-2: South Africa - Investment-to-Deposit Ratio (%), 2002-2007
• Figure 6-3: South Africa - Loan-to-Asset Ratio (%), 2002-2007
• Figure 6-4: South Africa - Capital Adequacy Ratio (%), 2005-2007
• Figure 6-5: Africa & World - Growth in High-net-worth Population (%), 2007
• Figure 6-6: South Africa - Wealthy Women Population (in ‘000), 2006 & 2011F
• Figure 6-7: South Africa - Forecast for New Passenger Car Registration (in ‘000 Units), 2008-2012
• Figure 6-8: South Africa - Forecast for TV Set, Refrigerator & Washing Machine Sales (in ‘000 Units), 2008-2012
• Figure 6-9: South Africa - Forecast for Internet Users Penetration (%), 2008-2012
• Figure 6-10: South Africa - Forecast for Mobile Subscribers (in Million), 2007*-2011
• Figure 6-11: South Africa - Non-performing Loans (in Billion ZAR), 2006 & 2007
• Figure 6-12: South Africa - Mortgage Affordability by Household Income (in ZAR), 2005-2007 & H1 2008
• Figure 6-13: South Africa - Population Growth* (%), 2000 to 2012
• Figure 7-1: South Africa - Forecast for Bank Loans* (in Billion US$), 2008-2012
• Figure 7-2: South Africa - Forecast for Deposits with Banks* (in Billion US$), 2008-2012
• Figure 7-3: South Africa - Forecast for Bank Assets* (in Billion US$), 2008-2012
• Figure 7-4: South Africa - Forecast for Net Interest Income of Banks* (in Billion US$), 2008-2012

List of Tables:

• Table 3-1: South Africa - Top Ten Domestic Banks by Assets (in Million ZAR), H1 2007
• Table 3-2: South Africa - Top Ten Foreign Banks by Assets (in Million ZAR), H1 2007
• Table 4-1: South Africa - Breakup of Bank Assets (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
• Table 6-1: South Africa - H-Index of Banking System (2002-2007)
• Table 8-1: ABSA Group Limited - Key Financials (in Million ZAR), 2006 & 2007
• Table 8-2: Standard Bank of South Africa - Key Financials (in Million ZAR), 2005-2007
• Table 8-3: FirstRand Limited - Key Financials (in Million ZAR), 2006 & 2007
• Table 8-4: Nedbank Group Limited - Key Financials (in Million ZAR), 2005-2007
• Table 8-5: Investec Limited - Key Financials (in Million US$), 2005-2007
• Table 8-6: Citigroup N.A. - Key Financials (in Million US$), 2004-2006
• Table 8-7: Deutsche Bank AG - Key Financials (in Million US$), 2005-2007
• Table 8-8: ABN AMRO Holding N.V. - Key Financials (in Million US$), 2005-2007
• Table 8-9: JPMorgan Chase & Co. - Key Financials (in Million US$), 2005-2007
• Table 8-10: State Bank of India - Key Financials (in Crore INR), 2006 & 2007