新兴市场FMC：对Capex、Opex造成的影响

The convergence of fixed and mobile telecommunications in emerging economies is still in its infancy, and even though next-generation networks already dominate capital expenditures, bona fide fixed-mobile platforms and services are rare. A handful of greenfield service providers and market challengers have chosen all-IP infrastructure for their WiMAX networks and started installing IMS platforms to support business fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) services, such as IP Centrex and VoIP. We believe that the IMS architecture, with its support for both legacy and IP networks, holds solid long-term promise for emerging-market operators. However, migration to an all-IP network in earnest won' t happen for years, since many emerging-market operators have adopted a wait-and-see strategy to learn from IP pioneers in North America and Western Europe, such as AT&T, BT, KPN and Telekom Austria.

As all-IP networking waits on the sidelines, a growing number of providers are reaping the benefits of scale, running multiservice operations and integrating their fixed and mobile divisions. Most incumbent operators never sold their mobile arms; others increased their ownership in previously spun off operations to 100%. And in China and Russia, fixed-mobile integration has begun, with significant implications for the telecom industry in those markets.

• Fixed-mobile service bundles are the first step on the road to convergence. Many operators in emerging markets already offer packages of mobile voice and fixed-broadband Internet services to business and home users.
• WiMAX is starting to create waves in most emerging markets as a substitute for fixed networks, despite its slow start. A number of greenfield WiMAX operators have chosen an all-IP architecture, pioneering convergence and influencing overall market dynamics by prompting competitors to expedite investment in next-generation networks.
• Case studies in China and Russia show that integration of fixed and mobile operators will have a significant impact on the telecom industry structure and long-term investment plans.
• Naturally, integration causes concern among equipment manufacturers: What impact will it have on Capex?

A new report by Pyramid Research, Fixed-Mobile Convergence in Emerging Markets: The Impact on Capex and Opex, examines the early FMC choices telcos have made in emerging markets and analyzes the impact of these choices on the overall direction of telecom investments and the level of operating expenses.

• What are the key drivers of fixed-mobile convergence, and how do they differ between mature and emerging markets?
• Who will launch FMC in emerging markets?
• What benefits will fixed-mobile convergence offer emerging-market industry players?
• Will mergers of fixed and mobile operators result in greater operational efficiency? If so, when and how?
• What drives Capex in emerging markets today? And will the strong Capex growth continue?

Identify successful strategies for introducing and promoting FMC offerings; draw on the experience of others in planning for changes in Capex and Opex.

From the case studies of China and Russia, develop an understanding of how the introduction of FMC in a market will affect Capex and Opex over both the short and long terms, and acquire insight into the challenges facing emerging-market operators in network rollouts and operations. Use these insights to successfully position your equipment and services as well as to enhance your value proposition.

Receive a thorough grounding in the salient issues facing fixed-mobile M&A and integration in emerging markets today. Use this analysis to understand who is best positioned to succeed and to assess upcoming opportunities in emerging telecommunications markets.

Understand the drivers behind FMC, why the FMC path is critical in the long run, and when to pursue it. Get a head start in understanding the impact of 3G and broadband deployments on traffic, future Capex and Opex.

Anticipate changes in the telecom industry resulting from fixed-mobile integration and convergence. Position yourself to take advantage of sharing access to fixed infrastructure with mobile network operators.

• AFK Sistema
• Amdocs
• Antel
• ArmenTel
• AsiaInfo
• AT&T
• Batelco
• Bharat Sanchar Nigam
• Limited (BSNL)
• Bharti Airtel
• Brasil Telecom
• BT
• Cedarcom
• Center Telecom
• Ceske Radiokomunikace
• China Mobile
• China Netcom
• China Network
• Communications (Netcom)
• China Railcom
• China Telecom
• China TieTong
• Telecommunications
• Corporation
• China Unicom
• Comstar UTS
• Comverse
• Detecon International
• Ertach
• Etisalat
• Eurotel
• Far EasTone
• Global Telecom
• Golden Telecom
• Guangdong Telecom
• HiTs Telecom
• ITC
• Kazakhtelecom
• KPN
• Magyar Telekom
• Matav
• Meditel
• MegaFon Russia
• Mena Telecom
• Mobily
• MTS
• Mubadala
• Oi
• OneMax
• Orange Jordan
• Orange Poland
• PCCW
• PTK Centertel
• Qtel
• Sky Link
• SPT
• STC
• T-Com
• Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM)
• Telefonica O2 Czech
• Republic
• Telekom Austria
• Telekom Slovenije
• Telekomunikacja Polska SA
• (TPSA)
• Telkom SA
• Telkomsel
• Telmex
• T-Mobile
• True Internet Thailand
• Umniah
• Uralsvyazinform
• Verizon Wireless
• VimpelCom
• Vodafone Czech Republic
• Vodafone Romania
• Wana
• Warid Telecom
• Wateen Telecom
• Westel
• Zain Bahrain

• Table of contents
• Table of exhibits
• Acronyms and abbreviations
• Companies mentioned in this report
• Executive summary
• Introduction

• 1.1 Changing customer demand: the main driver behind FMC
  • Case study: Vodafone Czech Republic chooses turnkey IMS to enter corporate sector
    • Turnkey implementation
    • Results
• 1.2 Unified licenses and WiMAX: helping to create multiservice providers
  • Award of unified licenses
  • Award of WiMAX licenses
• 1.3 Looking for future-proof, efficient, high-capacity technologies
• 1.4 Who will launch FMC in emerging markets?
  • Incumbent operators: Able but not always willing
  • Altnets: Struggling to add mobility
  • As their core markets mature, mobile operators look over the fixed “fence”

• 2.1. Strong Capex growth continues
  • Investment in broadband IP network gains speed across emerging markets
• 2.2 Fixed-mobile mergers in emerging markets: What they mean for Capex
  • Deploying WiMAX sites leads to lower spending on access
  • All-IP core network upgrades will have a major long-term impact on Capex
• 2.3. FMC and Opex in emerging markets
  • Emerging-market telcos: running a tight ship already
  • Mobile backhaul spending set to increase

• Case study: Industry reorganization in China shakes up market
  • The impact of restructuring on total Capex in China
  • No major impact on China Mobile' s Opex and Capex
  • China Telecom to boost CDMA investments, become full-service provider
  • Opex savings for China Netcom/China Unicom GSM depend on integration
  • The China Netcom-China Unicom merger' s impact on Capex
• Case study: Russian mobile operators drive fixed-mobile convergence
  • VimpelCom acquisition creates largest integrated operator in Russia
  • The VimpelCom-Golden Telecom merger' s impact on Capex

• Exhibit 1: Origins of the integrated fixed-mobile operator
• Exhibit 2: FMC revenue and cost benefits
• Exhibit 3: Mobile and fixed penetration of population by region at year-end 2007
• Exhibit 4: Broadband penetration of population by region 2007 and 2012
• Exhibit 5: VimpelCom/Golden Telecom FMC service introduction path
• Exhibit 6: Unified licenses in Africa and the Middle East
• Exhibit 7: Selected mobile operators with WiMAX licenses in emerging markets
• Exhibit 8: Operators driving fixed-mobile integration in emerging markets
• Exhibit 9: Emerging-market mobile Capex growth 2006-2008
• Exhibit 10: Capex-to-revenue ratios of emerging-market operators 2006-2012
• Exhibit 11: Uralsvyazinform (Russia) investments in new services
• Exhibit 12: Examples of IMS system rollouts in emerging markets
• Exhibit 13: Annual operating expenses per subscriber
• Exhibit 14: Mobile data traffic explosion for Sky Link Russia
• Exhibit 15: 2007 Opex per subscriber at Telefonica O2, T-Mobile and Vodafone in Czech Republic
• Exhibit 16: Impact of going all-IP on Opex
• Exhibit 17: Key performance indicators for the three new fixed-mobile operators in China in 2007
• Exhibit 18: Market shares by revenue in China based on reorganized operations 2007
• Exhibit 19: Capex plans of main operators in China prior to May 2008 reorganization
• Exhibit 20: Post-integration Capex in China 2007-2012
• Exhibit 21: China Mobile' s Capex 2007-2010
• Exhibit 22: China Telecom' s broadband traffic and speeds in 10 cities 2007-2010
• Exhibit 23: China Telecom Capex breakdown 2006-2009
• Exhibit 24: China Netcom/China Unicom Capex breakdown 2008-2009
• Exhibit 25: Revenue growth rates of operators in Russia 2003-2007
• Exhibit 26: VimpelCom/Golden Telecom Capex 2005-2012
• Exhibit 27: Golden Telecom Capex breakdown 2005-2008
• Exhibit 28: VimpelCom-Golden Telecom Opex and Capex synergies