家用手机宽带装置：Femtocell・UMA・IMS/VCC双模手机解决方案的商业案件

Operators are seeking new business opportunities while trying to control CAPEX and OPEX costs. Femtocell solutions could enable better traffic balancing between fixed and mobile networks which likely to lead to significant savings in RAN while enabling operators to enhance the user experience of their subscribers by offering better coverage and increased capacity in the home environment.

This report will allow you to assess the technical and strategic challenges facing this market and evaluate the most successful technology and implementations to develop your business strategies effectively.

• Mobile broadband networks and coverage issues mainly at home
• Traffic dimensioning between fixed and mobile networks
• Femtocell solutions for enabling value added services
• CAPEX and OPEX analysis
• Femtocell solutions, technology issues and challenges

• What is the business case for homezone approach including femtocell and dual mode solutions?
• What is the value proposition to consumers and how mobile operators are likely to package the homezone offer with other services?
• What is the roadmap for standardisation processes
• Femtocell solutions: the integrated approach vs the standalone; who are the winners?
• What is the level of engagement of different players in the value chain including hybrid operators, pure mobile operators, fixed operators, equipment manufacturers, and device vendors
• What level of saving of CAPEX/OPEX should expect and in what conditions?
• Femtocell solutions, what implementation scenario is likely to win the heart of mobile operators

• Mobile operators and mobile service providers: Evaluate the business case for FMC, mobile access at home including savings in traffic costs, increased ARPU through VAS services, OPEX and CAPEX optimisation, etc
• Fixed operators and fixed service providers: understand the opportunities and challenges in the mobile market
• Vendors (ODMs, OEMs, etc): Understand the economics of Femtocell, UMA and VCC deployment, evaluate opportunities including product differentiation and potential service offerings. Assess the technical and strategic challenges facing this market, assess the most successful technology and implementations, and build their strategies accordingly.
• New entrants and start-ups: position yourself in the new value - chain fine-tuning your products and services to the Mobile access at home market.

Infrastructure vendors:

NSN, Ericsson, AlcaLu, Motorola, ZTE, Airvana, NEC, SERCOM, Sonus Networks

Femtocell device vendors:

IP Access, Ubiquisys, Aricent, Continuous Computing, RadioFrame, Motorola, LGC, Pirelli, Genband, Kineto Wireless, Sagem, Nokia, Sagem, Tatara systems, UTStarcom, NEC

Operators:

T-Mobile, O2, Orange, Sprint-Nextel, NTT DoCoMo, TeliaSonera, Softbank, TIM, Vodafone, Mobilekom Austria, BHARTI, BT, Bouygues Telecom, and others (Orascom, PCCW, Rogers Wireless, Sasktel, Unwired)

Table of Contents

• EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
• Introduction
• The scope of the report
  • Figure 1.1: Summary of traffic and infrastructure forecast methodology
• The health of mobile and fixed telecoms markets
• The mobile market landscape
  • Figure 1.2 : Global mobile voice versus data services revenue, 2007-2012
• The fixed market landscape
  • Figure 1.3: Global PSTN voice versus broadband revenues, 2007-2013
• The migration from FMS to FMC
• Impact of the divergence between mobile data' s traffic and revenues
  • Figure 1.4: Global mobile data revenues and traffic, 2007-2012
• Mobile traffic at home
  • Figure 1.5: Global mobile traffic distribution by zone area, 2007-2013
• Offloading capacity and infrastructure cost
  • Figure 1.6: Annual femtocell cost compared to equivalent macrocell capacity upgrade for 3G/3.5G networks, 2009-2013
• Mobile Access at Home enabling technologies
• Femtocells
• Alternative technologies
• UMA
• IMS/VCC
• Vendor strategies for femtocells
• Operator strategies and the business for MAH
• Pure mobile operators
• Hybrid operators
• Fixed operators

• GLOBAL TELECOMS OVERVIEW AND CONVERGENCE TRENDS
• Mobile networks evolution towards broadband
• Introduction
• Cellular market evolution
  • Figure 2.1: Mobile network generations and deployment timelines
• The case of WiMAX
  • Figure 2.2: The role of WiMAX in fixed-wireless-mobile broadband convergence
• Mobile broadband subscribers by technology, compared with wired, 2007-2013
  • Figure 2.3: Global total mobile, wired broadband and wireless broadband subscribers, by wired and wireless, 2007-2013
  • Figure 2.4: Global total mobile subscribers, by region, 2007-2013
  • Figure 2.5: Global total wireless broadband subscribers, by region, 2007-2013
  • Figure 2.6: Global total wired broadband subscribers, by region, 2007-2013
  • Figure 2.7: Global mobile subscribers, by technology, 2007-2013
• The landscape of fixed broadband networks and subscribers
• Market development and evolution
• Mobile operators' strategies for fixed-line services
• Mobile and wired services revenues: voice vs. data
• Mobile service revenues, 2007-2012
  • Figure 2.8: Global mobile voice versus data services revenue, 2007-2012
• PSTN versus fixed broadband data revenues, 2007-2013
  • Figure 2.9: Global PSTN voice versus broadband revenues, 2007-2013
• The significance of mobile data services
• Mobile terminal software evolution and the role of smartphones
• Data traffic outpacing revenues, 2007-2012
  • Figure 2.10: Global mobile data revenues and traffic, 2007-2012
• The Web 2.0 phenomena
  • How will it impact mobile data traffic?
• Fixed mobile substitution and its strategic importance
• Market overview and trends
• The main driving strategies for FMS
  • Minutes bundling and ‘bucket' price plans
  • The mobile-only home
  • Homezone plans and evolution
    • Figure 2.11: West Europe main homezone services, by country, 2008
• Fixed mobile convergence trends
• The challenge of mobile backhaul

• FEMTOCELL IMPLEMENTATIONS , OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES
• Femtocell core network connectivity options
• Iub over IP
  • Figure 3.1: Iub over IP femtocell network
• Iu over IP and RAN gateways
  • Figure 3.2: Iu over IP femtocell network
  • Proprietary approach
  • UMA
  • Figure 3.3: UMA femtocell network
• A protocol in the making: Iu-h
  • Figure 3.4: Details of the Iu-h protocol
• SIP/IMS
  • Figure 3.5: SIP/IMS femtocell network
• Femtocell standardisation issues
  • Figure 3.6: Major femtocell standardisation bodies and their activities
• Femto Forum
• 3GPP
• 3GPP2
• DSL Forum
• Conclusion
• Femtocell access points (FAPs)
  • Figure 3.7: Major FAP manufacturers, 2008
  • Figure 3.8: Selection of FAPs
• FAP costs
  • Figure 3.9: Simple and integrated femtocell components
• From discrete components to integrated platforms
• Femtocell ecosystem and the level of support from infrastructure vendors
  • Figure 3.10: Infrastructure vendor involvement strategies
• FAP manufacturers and their role in the value chain
  • Figure 3.11: Netgear Femtocell Voice Gateway
• Femtocell implementation issues
• Open and closed access
  • Figure 3.12: Open and closed access usage scenarios
• Radio resource management and interference
  • 3GPP TR 25.820 study
    • Figure 3.13: High priority 3GPP femtocell interference scenarios
  • Vendor activities
  • Femtocell positioning
    • Figure 3.14: Interference scenarios for macro-femto coexistence
• Scalability
• Ease of use
• FAP management
  • Figure 3.15: TR-069 Architecture
• End user resistance and concerns
• Service quality and security
• Security - social issues

• ALTERNATIVE TECHNOLOGIES
• UMA
• Technology
  • Figure 4.1: UMA operation
• UMA evolution
• UMA business case
• Deployments
  • BT Fusion
  • Orange Unik
  • Other UMA deployments
    • Figure 4.2: Global UMA deployments, 2008
• Comparison of UMA with femtocells
  • Strengths of UMA compared with femtocells
  • Weaknesses of UMA compared with femtocells
    • Figure 4.3: UMA mobile handsets, as of 2Q08
• VCC
  • Figure 4.4: Potential signalling and bearer handover between the circuit-switched domain and IMS
  • Figure 4.5: Operators and vendors leading VCC specification developments, 2008
• VCC compared with UMA
  • Figure 4.6: VCC and UMA operation
• SIP implementations
• Background
• How open is SIP?
• IETF vs. 3GPP SIP
• Dual mode services vs. femtocells
  • Figure 4.7: Comparison of dual mode services and femtocells
• Opportunities and challenges in FMC and FMS
• FMC
  • Figure 4.8: Advantages and disadvantages of FMC
• FMS
• FMC, FMS and mobile access at home
  • Figure 4.9: Operator requirements and opportunities in FMC/FMS
  • FMC service evolution
    • Figure 4.10: FMC service roadmap

• OPERATOR BUSINESS CASE FOR MOBILE ACCESS AT HOME
• Introduction
• The limitations of the current mobile access at home
• Mobile usage growth in the home environment
  • Figure 5.1: Mobile traffic at peak hours by residential and non-residential areas, 2008 vs. 2013
• Coverage issues
  • Figure 5.2: Radio signal attenuation: effect on coverage at home for different access networks
• Capacity issues
  • Figure 5.3: Signal strength and power requirements for different wireless access generations
• Impact on the user experience of mobile access at home
• Current mobile network status
• Costs and benefits: macrocell vs. femtocell
  • Figure 5.4: Femtocells' role in providing better coverage at home
• Value proposition and challenges of providing mobile access at home
• Cost justification
  • Figure 5.5: The value proposition for MAH services including voice and data
• The roadmap for mobile access at home services
• Cost reduction: the role of femtocells and alternative technologies
• Traffic growth and its challenge to network capacity
  • Figure 5.6: Mobile operator revenue and traffic decoupling
  • Is network sharing the answer?
• The backhaul: removing the capacity bottlenecks
• The role of femtocells
• The business case for femtocells and alternative technologies
  • Figure 5.7: The business case for deploying mobile access at home solutions
• Mobile operators
  • Importance of home subscribers
  • The next generation homezone business case
  • MAH versus naked Wi-Fi
  • Cost savings
  • Marketing MAH solutions
• Integrated operators
  • FMC
  • Wi-Fi versus mobile broadband or Wi-Fi and mobile broadband?
• Fixed-line operators
• Femtocells: barriers to deployment
  • Figure 5.8: Femtocell barriers to deployment

• MOBILE ACCESS AT HOME : MARKET AND TRENDS
• Evolution of mobile access at home
  • Figure 6.1: The global industry roadmap towards convergence
• The commercial reality of mobile access at home services
  • Figure 6.2: Comparison of different mobile access at home solutions
• The commercial reality of femtocells and their market evolution
  • Figure 6.3: The roadmap of femtocell services
• The commercial reality for UMA/WLAN and VCC/WLAN
  • UMA/WLAN services
  • VCC/WLAN services
• Mobile broadband access at home forecast methodology
• Defining users of MAH services
• Defining different MAH solutions
  • Figure 6.4: Mobile access at home segments for forecasts, 2007-2013
• MAH service user forecast methodology
• Femtocell access point (FAP) forecast methodology
• UMA subscriber forecasts by region, 2007-2013
  • Figure 6.5: Global mobile subscribers with UMA handsets, by region, 2007-2013
• IMS/VCC subscriber forecasts by region, 2007-2013
  • Figure 6.6: Global mobile subscribers with IMS/VCC devices, by region, 2007-2013
• Femtocell market analysis and forecasts, 2007-2013
• User forecasts and regional differences
  • Figure 6.7: Global femtocell users, by region, 2007-2013
  • Europe
  • Asia Pacific
  • North America
• Market analysis and forecasts by mobile network technology
  • 2G/2.5G technologies
    • Figure 6.8: Global femtocell deployment, by region and wireless technology, 2007-2013
    • Figure 6.9: Global femtocell deployment, by wireless technology generation, 2009-2013
  • 3G/3.5G
  • WiMAX/LTE
• Standalone versus integrated approaches
  • Market opportunities for the two approaches
  • Market forecasts by technology and region
    • Figure 6.10: Global femtocell deployment, standalone versus integrated approach, by region and wireless technology, 2007-2013
    • Figure 6.11: Global femtocell deployment, standalone versus integrated approach, 2009-2013

• FEMTOCELLS VS . MACROCELLS : TRAFFIC FORECASTS AND COST ANALYSIS
• Introduction
• Traffic forecasts methodology
• Motivations and exclusivity
• Overall scope and methodology
  • Figure 7.1: Summary of traffic and infrastructure forecast methodology
• Mobile network traffic forecast methodology
• Mobile macro-network infrastructure forecast methodology
  • Base station requirements: capacity vs. coverage
    • Figure 7.2: Land mass coverage by geotype
  • Radio access capex
    • Figure 7.3: Parameters used to calculate the total radio access capex
• Mobile backhaul capacity and cost forecast methodology
• Operational forecast methodology
• Femtocell network infrastructure cost forecast methodology
• Mapping mobile voice and data usage, 2007-2013
• Mobile voice usage
  • Figure 7.4: The map of voice MoU by zone area (home, office, out of home/office and on the move), 2007-2013
• Mobile data usage
  • Figure 7.5: The map of data traffic by zone area (home, office, out of home/office and on the move), 2007-2013
• Femto traffic offload vs. macro-traffic in the home, 2007-2013
  • Figure 7.6: Global mobile traffic: femtocell vs. macrocell (residential and non-residential), by region, 2007-2013
  • Figure 7.7: Global mobile traffic: femtocell vs. macrocell (residential and non-residential), 2007-2013
• Asia Pacific
  • Figure 7.8: Asia Pacific mobile traffic: femtocell vs. macrocell (residential and non-residential), 2007-2013
• Europe
  • Figure 7.9: Europe mobile traffic: femtocell vs. macrocell (residential and non-residential), 2007-2013
• North America
  • Figure 7.10: North America mobile traffic: femtocell vs. macrocell (residential and non-residential), 2007-2013
• Latin America
  • Figure 7.11: Latin America mobile traffic: femtocell vs. macrocell (residential and non-residential), 2007-2013
• Middle East and Africa
  • Figure 7.12: Africa/Middle East mobile traffic: femtocell vs. macrocell (residential and non-residential), 2007-2013
• Femtocell infrastructure cost forecasts, 2007-2013
• Femtocell equipment cost breakdown
  • Figure 7.13: Femtocell infrastructure: breakdown of cost per unit, 2009-2013
• Femtocell capital investments by technology and by region
  • Figure 7.14: Global femtocell capital expenditure by region and by wireless access technology, 2009-2013
  • Regional differences
    • Figure 7.15: Global femtocell capital expenditure by region, 2009-2013
  • Investment by wireless access technology
    • Figure 7.16: Global femtocell capital expenditure by wireless access technology, 2009-2013
• Femtocells vs. macrocells: infrastructure cost forecasts, 2007-2013
• The cost of equivalent macrocell infrastructure (CEMI)
  • Figure 7.17: Global total cost of equivalent macrocell infrastructure (CEMI) cost breakdown (capex, opex, backhaul), by region, 2007-2013
  • Figure 7.18: Global total CEMI cost breakdown (capex, opex, backhaul), 2009-2013
• Femtocells vs. macrocells: infrastructure cost analysis
  • Figure 7.19: Femtocells infrastructure cost vs. equivalent macrocell infrastructure cost, by technology, 2009-2013
  • The case of 2G/2.5G
  • The case of 3G/3.5G
  • The case of LTE and WiMAX
• Femtocell device subsidies
  • Figure 7.20: Effect of FAP subsidies: annual cost savings for deploying femtocell solutions, 2009-2013

• OPERATOR CASE STUDIES AND IMPLEMENTATION SCENARIOS FOR FEMTOCELLS
• Introduction
  • Figure 8.1: Benefits of mobile access at home solutions for operators
  • Figure 8.2: Typical operator involvement for femtocells
  • Figure 8.3: Femtocell involvement and strategies for selected operators, May 2008
• Pure mobile operators
• Hybrid operators
• Fixed operators
• Operators' femtocell strategies: the early adopters
• Sprint Nextel' s femtocell strategy
  • Operator overview
  • Femtocell and ‘access at home' activities
    • Figure 8.4: US: Sprint' s Airave femtocell device
  • Strategy in the mobile access at home market
  • Initial feedback
• NTT DoCoMo' s femtocell strategy
  • Operator overview
  • Femtocell and ‘access at home' activities
    • Figure 8.5: Japan: NTT DoCoMo picocell and femtocell comparison
  • Strategy in the mobile access at home market
    • Figure 8.6: DoCoMo' s femtocell device evolution
• Operators' femtocell strategies: followers
• Vodafone' s femtocell strategy
  • Operator overview
  • Femtocell and ‘access at home' activities
  • Strategy in the mobile access at home market
    • Figure 8.7: Vodafone' s cellular-fixed interface device
    • Figure 8.8: Vodafone' s opportunities regarding femtocells and fixed strategy
• T-Mobile' s femtocell strategy
  • Operator overview
  • Femtocell and ‘access at home' activities
    • Figure 8.9: US: T-Mobile USA access at home services: HotSpot@Home and @Home, 2008
  • Strategy in the mobile access at home market
• TeliaSonera' s femtocell strategy
  • Operator overview
  • Femtocell and ‘access at home' activities
  • Strategy in the mobile access at home market
• Softbank' s femtocell strategy
  • Operator overview
  • Femtocell and ‘access at home' activities
  • Strategy in the mobile access at home market
    • Figure 8.10: Japan: Softbank' s femtocell deployment timeline
• AT&T' s femtocell strategy
  • Operator overview
  • Femtocell and ‘access at home' activities
  • Strategy in the mobile access at home market
• Telefonica O2' s femtocell strategy
  • Operator overview
  • Femtocell and ‘access at home' activities
  • Strategy in the mobile access at home market
• Other operators' femtocell strategies
• Operators' femtocell strategies: skeptics
• Orange' s femtocell strategy
  • Operator overview
  • ‘Access at home' activities
    • Figure 8.11: Orange France Unik subscription options, May 2008
  • Strategy in the mobile access at home market
• BT' s femtocell strategy
  • Operator overview
  • Femtocell and ‘access at home' activities
  • Strategy in the mobile access at home market

• VENDOR CASE STUDIES
• Introduction
• Incumbent infrastructure vendors
• Challengers
• Vendor-specific vs. standardized network interface
• Incumbent infrastructure vendors in the femtocell market
• Case study: Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN) femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
    • Figure 9.1: NSN Femto Gateway compatibility, as at May 2008
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.2: SWOT analysis for NSN' s femtocell strategy
• Case study: Sonus Networks' femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
    • Figure 9.3: Sonus Networks' MobilEdge femtocell compatibility
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.4: SWOT analysis for Sonus Networks' femtocell strategy
• Case study: Ericsson' s femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
    • Figure 9.5: Ericsson FC2500 GSM/EDGE femtocell
    • Figure 9.6: Ericsson FC2500 femtocell, selected properties
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.7: SWOT analysis for Ericssson' s femtocell strategy
• Case study: Alcatel-Lucent' s femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
    • Figure 9.8: Alcatel-Lucent 9365 Base Station Router Femto, selected properties
    • Figure 9.9: Alcatel-Lucent 9365 Base Station Router Femto (WCDMA version)
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.10: SWOT analysis for Alcatel-Lucent' s femtocell strategy
• Case study: Motorola' s femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
    • Figure 9.11: Motorola AXPT, 8000 and 8100 femtocell, selected properties
    • Figure 9.12: Motorola 8000 femtocell
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.13: SWOT analysis for Motorola' s femtocell strategy
• Case study: Huawei' s femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
    • Figure 9.14: Huawei UMTS Home AP femtocell (publicly available information)
    • Figure 9.15: Huawei UMTS Home AP femtocell
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.16: SWOT analysis for Huawei' s femtocell strategy
• Case study: NEC' s femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.17: SWOT analysis for NEC' s femtocell strategy
• Case study: Kineto Wireless' femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.18: SWOT analysis for Kineto' s femtocell strategy
• Case study: ZTE' s femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
    • Figure 9.19: ZTE' s femtocell, selected properties
    • Figure 9.20: ZTE' s femtocell device
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.21: SWOT analysis for ZTE femtocell strategy
• Case study: Sagem' s femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.22: SWOT analysis for Sagem femtocell strategy
• Femtocell vendor profiles
• Case study: ip.access' femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
    • Figure 9.23: ip.access Oyster3G femtocell, selected properties
    • Figure 9.24: ip.access Oyster3G femtocell devices
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.25: SWOT analysis for ip.access femtocell strategy
• Case study: Ubiquisys' femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
    • Figure 9.26: Ubiquisys' s Zonegate femtocell, selected properties
    • Figure 9.27: Ubiquisys Zonegate femtocell device
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.28: SWOT analysis for Ubiquisys femtocell strategy
• Case study: Airvana' s femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
    • Figure 9.29: Airvana HubBub femtocell, selected properties
    • Figure 9.30: Airvana HubBub femtocell
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.31: SWOT analysis for Airvana' s femtocell strategy
• Case study: Airwalk' s femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
    • Figure 9.32: Airwalk Edgepoint femtocell, selected properties
    • Figure 9.33: Airwalk Edgepoint femtocell
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.34: SWOT analysis for Airwalk' s femtocell strategy
• Case study: RadioFrame' s femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
    • Figure 9.35: RadioFrame Networks OmniCell@Home femtocell, selected properties
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.36: SWOT analysis for RadioFrame Networks' femtocell strategy
• Other vendors and home gateway device manufacturers' femtocell strategies
• Hardware platform and software providers' femtocell strategies
• The picoChip/Continuous Computing joint femtocell solution
  • Figure 9.37: picoChip/Continuous Computing reference platform for femtocell devices

• FUTURE OUTLOOK
• Femtocell deployment issues
• Handover
• Radio resource management
• Handset issues
• Regulatory aspects
• Network neutrality
  • Femtocell operation over a non-affiliated broadband connection
• Femtocell: Mini Node B or CPE?
• Indirect regulatory aspects and the Chinese telecoms market
• Femtocell standardization issues
• Relevant standards and organisations
• IEEE
  • 802.11r
  • 802.11u
  • 802.21
    • Figure 10.1: 802.21 technology compatibility
    • Figure 10.2: Summary of network interworking standards
• 3GPP: standard evolution towards LTE
• NGMN
• WiMAX Forum
• 3GPP2
• GSMA
• Femto Forum
• Femtocells in the enterprise market