2008年的3D电视市场

Abstract

• Executive Summary
• Human Factors of 3D Stereo Perception
• Existing Content for 3DTV
• New 3D Content Creation
• 2DTV Display Technologies
• 3DTV Display Technologies
  • 3DTV Projection Systems (Front and rear projection)
  • 3D AMLCD Television
  • 3D Plasma Television
  • 3D OLED Television
• 3DTV Content Delivery
• Forecast and Prospects for 3DTV
• Glossary of 3D Terms and Acronyms

In this report, we start with a very detailed and fundamental analysis of three topics key to the penetration of 3DTV into the consumer market:

• 3D content that can interest consumers and attract them to 3DTV
• 3D content distribution technology and formats that will bring this content to the consumer' s home
• 3D display technology capable of producing HDTV-quality images for the consumer in both 2D and 3D modes.
• This analysis showed all three factors are converging in a way likely to start the widespread penetration of 3D into consumer TV.

To develop the penetration forecast, we started with penetration rates for other consumer products, including color television, videotapes and DVDs, wide-screen TV, portable media players and camera phones. These penetration rates were then applied to 3DTV, taking into account:

• Popularity of 3D cinema and the forecast penetration of 3D cinema
• Availability of 3D content at the consumer level including cinema, games and other content
• Cost premium of 3DTV systems compared to 2DTV systems and the premium the consumer has been willing to pay for other features
• The surprisingly large installed base of 3D-ready HDTVs already in consumers' homes.

These penetration rates were used to produce conservative, expected and optimistic forecasts for the penetration of 3D into the TV market through 2012. These forecasts include both unit sales of 3DTVs and the incremental revenue to the CE manufacturers that can be attributed to 3D.

For this report, we reviewed probably hundreds of documents and interviewed and/or had meetings with individuals representing over 40 companies throughout the US, Europe and Asia over the last 12 months. These meetings included site visits, telephone and e-mail interviews and discussions at trade shows. We also examined the recent forecast worldwide sales through 2012 of 2D television systems. This is a comprehensive look at the technology and market opportunity by a top-level team of Insight Media analysts.

There are many technical, market, business and pricing discussions in this report.

• Which display technologies are most suited for consumer 3D?
• Are any developments in display technology needed before widespread consumer acceptance of 3DTV?
• Is 3D content compatible with the large existing 2D content creation and distribution infrastructure?
• How will the chicken-and-egg log-jam be broken?
• Will consumers buy 3DTVs if no content is available?
• Will content be produced in 3D if there are no 3DTVs in consumers' homes?
• Will the consumer accept 3DTV?
• Will 3DTV be a fad or will it be a long-term part of the television market?
• Will there be sufficient content to sustain 3DTV sales?

• Discussion of content creation, including live-action, computer graphics and 2D-to-3D conversion
• Examination of why there is such a large installed base of 3D-ready HDTV systems when there is little or no HDTV 3D content available
• Discussion of 3D video formats for applications such as:
  • Professional image acquisition and post-production
  • Consumer image acquisition
  • Contribution formats to move content from the creators to the channel operators
  • Distribution formats to get the content into the consumers' homes
  • Display formats to get the content from the 3D display processor to the actual display (last inch problem)
• Calculation of the added bandwidth required at each step in the distribution chain compared to 2D video.
• In-depth examination of all current display technologies and how the technologies can be used to display stereoscopic 3D. This includes not just a technology discussion but also an evaluation of the added costs to both the CE manufacturer and the consumer.
• Discussion of the future direction of all 3D display technologies
• Compatibility of 3D displays with 2D content, which is expected to continue to dominate the available consumer content through the end of the study period.

This report aims to supply technologists, managers, product planners, engineers, researchers and marketing personnel with the information needed to evaluate 3DTV technology and marketing trends in the consumer HDTV market. The report also aims to provide content creators with viable forecasts of the 3D-capable TV installed base. Armed with the technical and market data provided in this report, key decision makers will be equipped to assess technology alternatives and make informed decisions as they plan products and business investments in 3D consumer products.

• This report should be purchased by anyone involved in research, development or design of consumer television systems.
• Product managers and product planners in consumer television systems.
• Component suppliers to the 3D television set manufacturers who need to understand the future trends in the market --
  • Active and passive glasses
  • 3D video processing hardware and software
  • Polarization and other materials needed in the production of 3D displays
• Content creators and distribution channel operators who need to plan for the arrival of 3D content.

The report is delivered as a PDF file under a site license agreement. Private webinar and on-site presentations and discussions of the data in this report are also available.

1. Executive Summary

• 1.1. Introduction to Stereoscopic 3D for Television
• 1.2. Human Perception of Stereoscopic Images
• 1.3. 3D Display Technologies Suitable for 3DTV
• 1.4. Encoding Standards for 3DTV
• 1.5. Forecasts for 3DTV

2. Human Factors of 3D Stereo Perception

• 2.1. Normal Perception of 3D
• 2.2. Anomalous Perception of 3D

3. Existing Content for 3DTV

• 3.1. 3D Content Desired by Consumers
• 3.2. Movies
• 3.3. Computer-Generated Imagery
• 3.4. Computer Games
• 3.5. Special Events

4. New 3D Content Creation

• 4.1. Filming with two cameras
• 4.2. Computer Generated Images
• 4.3. Conversion of 2D to 3D images

5. 2DTV Display Technologies

• 5.1. Introduction
• 5.2. Projection Technology
  • 5.2.1. Digital Light Processing (DLP)
    • 5.2.1.1. The DMD
    • 5.2.1.2. 1-Chip vs. 3-Chip
    • 5.2.1.3. Smooth Picture
  • 5.2.2. Liquid Crystal on Silicon (LCoS) Technology
    • 5.2.2.1. 3-Panel LCOS
    • 5.2.2.2. Single Panel LCOS
  • 5.2.3. 3LCD Technology
  • 5.2.4. Other Projection Technologies
• 5.3. Direct View LCD Technology
• 5.4. PDP Technology
• 5.5. OLED Displays

6. 3DTV Display Technologies

• 6.1. 3D Overview
  • 6.1.1. Stereoscopic Images
  • 6.1.2. Active and Passive Glasses
  • 6.1.3. Backward-Compatible Anaglyphic Techniques
  • 6.1.4. The Infitec 3D System
• 6.2. 3D Family Tree
  • 6.2.1. Time Sequential
  • 6.2.2. Co-Located Pixels
  • 6.2.3. Spatial Separation
  • 6.2.4. Summary

7. 3D Projection Systems

• 7.1. Co-Located Pixels 3D (Two Projectors)
  • 7.1.1. Image Separation Techniques for Dual-Projector Installations
  • 7.1.2. DLP Options for Dual-Projectors or Engines
  • 7.1.3. 3LCD/LCOS Options for Dual Projectors or Engines
• 7.2. Time Sequential 3D (One Projector)
  • 7.2.1. Image Separation Techniques for Single Projector 3D
  • 7.2.2. Bandwidth and Bit Depth in Single Projector Systems
    • 7.2.2.1. External Bandwidth Requirement
  • 7.2.3. DLP Options for Single Projector Time Sequential
    • 7.2.3.1. Full Pixel Count Front Projection Systems
    • 7.2.3.2. Half Pixel Count SmoothPicture Rear-Projection Systems
    • 7.2.3.3. Conclusions for Single-Projector DLP 3D Systems
  • 7.2.4. 3LCD/LCoS Options
• 7.3. Opportunity Analysis for 3D Projection Systems

8. 3D AMLCD Television

• 8.1. AMLCD 3D with Glasses
  • 8.1.1. Micropolarizer Approach
  • 8.1.2. Stacked Dual LCD Approach
  • 8.1.3. Optically Combined LCD Displays
  • 8.1.4. Field Sequential AMLCD 3DTV
• 8.2. Autostereoscopic AMLCD Approaches
  • 8.2.1. Parallax Barrier 3D
  • 8.2.2. Lenticular (Multi-View) 3D

9. 3D Plasma Television

10. 3D OLED Television

11. 3DTV Content Delivery

• 11.1. Understanding TV Content Delivery Chains
  • 11.1.1. Production, contribution, distribution and display levels
  • 11.1.2. Video Standards and Recording Formats
• 11.2. Backward Compatibility Requirement for 3DTV Formats
  • 11.2.1. Producing 3D on 2D equipment: Production Compatibility
  • 11.2.2. Transporting and Recording 3D on 2D Equipment: Contribution Compatibility
  • 11.2.3. Watching 3D as 2D on a 2DTV set: Standard Backward Compatibility.
  • 11.2.4. Watching 3D as 3D on a 2D set: Hardware Retrofitting
  • 11.2.5. Watching 2D as 2D on a 3DTV Set: Content Continuity
  • 11.2.6. Watching 2D as 3D on a 3DTV set: Content Retrofitting
• 11.3. Delivery Chain Compatibility with 3D Content
  • 11.3.1. Geometry of the Native 3D Picture
  • 11.3.2. Transmitting Full 3D Over Existing 2D Chains: Dual Stream 3D
  • 11.3.3. Squeezing 3D Inside Existing 2D Formats: 3D Multiplexing
• 11.4. Comparison of Analog and Digital 3D Formats
  • 11.4.1. Structure of the Comparison Charts
  • 11.4.2. Dual Stream 3D
  • 11.4.3. Anaglyphic 3D
  • 11.4.4. Spectral Encoding
  • 11.4.5. Row Interleaved 3D
  • 11.4.6. Side-by-Side and Over-Under Anamorphic 3D
  • 11.4.7. Digital Spatial Compression (Sensio)
  • 11.4.8. Embedded Dual Stream
  • 11.4.9. Checkerboard and Other Pixel-Shuffling Formats
  • 11.4.10. Foreground and Depth Map
  • 11.4.11. Left and Right Views plus Depth Maps in Quadrant
  • 11.4.12. Foreground, Background and Depth Maps in Quadrant

12. Analysis / Prospects for 3DTV

• 12.1. Signs of Progress
  • 12.1.1. Situation: The Chicken & Egg Gridlock is About to be Set Free.
  • 12.1.2. Strategies: Partnership to Build End-to-End 3D Solutions
  • 12.1.3. Strong Positions in the Race to 3D Format
  • 12.1.4. Open Options: The Disruptive Effect of the Digital Switchover
• 12.2. Introduction to Forecast
• 12.3. Total Available Market (TAM)
• 12.4. Forecast for 3D-Ready and 3DTV
  • 12.4.1. RPTV Analysis
    • 12.4.1.1. Forecasts for DLP RPTV
    • 12.4.1.2. Forecasts for 3LCD and LCoS RPTV
  • 12.4.2. Plasma TV Analysis
    • 12.4.2.1. Forecasts for Plasma
  • 12.4.3. LCD TV Analysis
    • 12.4.3.1. Price premium for 3D LCD
    • 12.4.3.2. Forecasts for LCD
  • 12.4.4. Front Projection Home Theater Analysis
    • 12.4.4.1. Forecasts for DLP Front Projection Home Theater
    • 12.4.4.2. Forecasts for 3LCD/LCoS Front Projection Home Theater
  • 12.4.5. OLED and other technologies
  • 12.4.6. Sales of 3D conversion kits
  • 12.4.7. 3D Source Forecast
  • 12.4.8. Summary of Forecasts
    • 12.4.8.1. 3D Digital TV Unit Sales Forecasts
    • 12.4.8.2. 3D “Eyeball” Forecast
• 12.5. Forecast Conclusions
  • 12.5.1. 3D Eyeball Forecast
  • 12.5.2. Forecast Implications for TV Manufacturers
  • 12.5.3. Forecast Implications for Peripheral Manufacturers
  • 12.5.4. Forecast Implications for Content Creators

13. 3D GLOSSARY

• Figure 1: Stereoscopic Display Technologies
• Figure 2: Perspective Depth Cues are Aided by Learned Experience
• Figure 3: Motion Parallax
• Figure 4: Consumer Preferences for 3D viewing Content
• Figure 5: 3D Movies since 1895
• Figure 6: 3D Cinema Then and Now
• Figure 7: 22-inch 3D LCD Monitors for Gamers
• Figure 8: Professional 3D Video Cameras
• Figure 9: Consumer 3D Video Camera from ColorCode 3D
• Figure 10: Imax 3D Film Camera
• Figure 11: Digital Micromirror Device (DMD)
• Figure 12: DLP Projector Designs
• Figure 13: DLP Projector with SmoothPicture
• Figure 14: Cross Section of an LCOS Panel
• Figure 15: Standard 3-Panel MacNeille type 3PBS/X-cube Architecture
• Figure 16: CQ3 3-Panel LCOS Architecture
• Figure 17: FSC Single Panel LCOS Architecture
• Figure 18: Cross Section of a Transmissive HTPS LCD Microdisplay Panel
• Figure 19: Operation of a Twisted Nematic LC
• Figure 20: Architecture for a 3LCD Projector
• Figure 21: Linear Arrays for Projection Applications
• Figure 22: LCD vs. CRT Unit Sales
• Figure 23: Structure of a LCD-TV
• Figure 24: Structure of a Plasma Display Panel
• Figure 25: Structure of a Surface Discharge Plasma Cell
• Figure 26: OLED Structure
• Figure 27: Sony XEL-1 OLED TV
• Figure 28: Stereoscopic 3D Imagery
• Figure 29: Active and Passive 3D Glasses
• Figure 30: SoftPixel Plastic Active Glasses
• Figure 31: Disposable Polarizing Glasses
• Figure 32: Disposable Glasses for Color-Based 3D
• Figure 33: Dolby 3D Glasses using the Infitec System
• Figure 34: Anaglyph 3D Image without Glasses
• Figure 35: ColorCode 3-D Image
• Figure 36: Eclipse 3D Image
• Figure 37: Infitec RBG Spectral Filter Approach
• Figure 38: Family Tree for Time Sequential 3D
• Figure 39: Family Tree for Co-Located Pixels 3D
• Figure 40: Family Tree for Spatial Separation 3D
• Figure 41: Stacked Projectors for 3D
• Figure 42: HDMI 1.3 Cable
• Figure 43: 3-DLP projectors for eye-sequential operation
• Figure 44: InFocus DepthQ Single Panel DLP projector for eye-sequential operation
• Figure 45: Real D 3D Cinema Approach
• Figure 46: Infitec/Dolby 3D Approach
• Figure 47. Dolby/Infitec Color Wheels
• Figure 48: DLP SmoothPicture Stereoscopic Video Format
• Figure 49: Micropolarizer-based 3D AMLCD Architecture
• Figure 50: Viewing Angle is Affected by Micropolarizer / Pixel Spacing
• Figure 51: SpectronIQ 3-D 46-inch 3DTV
• Figure 52: Arisawa P240W 3DTV
• Figure 53: Micropolarizer 3D Monitors
• Figure 54: iZ3D 3D Monitor
• Figure 55: iZ3D Monitor Architecture
• Figure 56: Perceiva DSD190
• Figure 57: Optically Combined 3D Displays
• Figure 58: Optically Combined 3D Display Architecture
• Figure 59: Field Sequential Stereoscopic AMLCD Display Technology
• Figure 60: Optically Compensated Bend (OCB) LCD
• Figure 61: Field-Sequential Addressing
• Figure 62: Field Sequential Operation with Scrolling Backlight
• Figure 63: Lightguide Structure for Scrolling Backlight
• Figure 64: Parallax Barrier 3D
• Figure 65: Effects of Viewer Position
• Figure 66: Switchable Parallax Barrier
• Figure 67: Pavonine C190S Autostereoscopic AMLCD Monitor
• Figure 68: Lenticular 3D
• Figure 69: LG M4210D Autostereoscopic Monitor
• Figure 70: 3D OLED Personal Display (eMagin Z800)
• Figure 71: Standard Video Resolutions
• Figure 72: Example of Pixel Aspect Ratio
• Figure 73: Color spaces for video, digital cinema and film
• Figure 74: Color sub-sampling
• Figure 75: Physical Supports for Video Material
• Figure 76: Side-by-Side Stereoscopic 3D
• Figure 77: 4-Views 3D Image for Auto-Stereoscopic Displays
• Figure 78: 2D Picture and Depth Map
• Figure 79: Anaglyphic 3D
• Figure 80: Simulation of Row Interleaved 3D
• Figure 81: Anamorphic 3D Systems
• Figure 82: 8-View Calibration Pattern
• Figure 83: Detail of RGB Shuffling
• Figure 84: Detail of Actual Autostereoscopic Picture
• Figure 85: Left, Right and Depth Maps in Quadrant
• Figure 86. Quadrant 3D Multiplexing
• Figure 87: Quadrant 3D Multiplexing Project Structure
• Figure 88: Historical Penetration Rates for Consumer Electronics
• Figure 89: World Wide Television Forecast (26" and Larger)
• Figure 90: World Wide Television Revenue (26" and Larger)
• Figure 91: DLP RPTV Expected Unit Forecast
• Figure 92: DLP RPTV Optimistic Unit Forecast
• Figure 93: DLP RPTV Conservative Unit Forecast
• Figure 94: 3LCD/LCoS RPTV Expected Unit Forecast
• Figure 95: 3LCD/LCoS RPTV Optimistic Unit Forecast
• Figure 96: 3LCD/LCoS RPTV Conservative Unit Forecast
• Figure 97: Plasma TV Expected Unit Forecast
• Figure 98: Plasma TV Optimistic Unit Forecast
• Figure 99: Plasma TV Conservative Unit Forecast
• Figure 100: Price premium data for various features
• Figure 101: 3D LCD TV Expected ASP Premium over 2D LCD
• Figure 102: 3D LCD TV Conservataive, Expected and Optimistic Premiums
• Figure 103: LCD TV Expected Unit Forecast
• Figure 104: LCD TV Optimistic Unit Forecast
• Figure 105: LCD TV Conservative Unit Forecast
• Figure 106: Home Theater DLP Expected Unit Forecast
• Figure 107: Home Theater DLP Optimistic Unit Forecast
• Figure 108: Home Theater DLP Conservative Unit Forecast
• Figure 109: Home Theater LCD/LCOS Expected Unit Forecast
• Figure 110: Home Theater LCD/LCOS Optimistic Unit Forecast
• Figure 111: Home Theater LCD/LCOS Conservative Unit Forecast
• Figure 112: AMOLED Expected Unit Forecast
• Figure 113: Installed base of 3D Ready TVs
• Figure 114: Sales of Accessory Kits for 3D Ready TVs
• Figure 115: Installed Base of 3D ready TVs Capable of Watching 3D Content
• Figure 116: World Wide 3D Digital TV Unit Forecast
• Figure 117: World Wide Unit Sales of 3D-Ready TVs
• Figure 118: Installed base of 3D Capable Systems (Conservative)
• Figure 119: Installed base of 3D Capable Systems (Expected)
• Figure 120: Installed base of 3D Capable Systems (Optimistic)

• Table 1: Stereoscopic Display Guidelines
• Table 2: Some Recent and Upcoming 3D Major Motion Pictures
• Table 3: Luminance Efficiency Values
• Table 4: Co-Located Pixel 3D Options
• Table 5: Time Sequential 3D Options
• Table 6: Spatial Separation 3D Options
• Table 7: 3D Projection Prospects - Co-Located Pixels
• Table 8: 3D Projection Prospects - Time Sequential
• Table 9: 3D AMLCD TV Overview
• Table 10: Some Micropolarizer-based 3D AMLCD Monitors
• Table 11: 3D Format Comparison Charts
• Table 12: Dual-Stream and Frame Alternating 3D
• Table 13: Anaglyphic 3D
• Table 14: Spectral Encoding 3D
• Table 15: Row Interleaved 3D
• Table 16: Side-by-Side and Over-Under Anamorphic 3D
• Table 17: Digital Spatial Compression
• Table 18: Embedded Dual Stream 3D
• Table 19: Checkerboard and Other Pixel-Shuffling Formats
• Table 20: Foreground and Depth Map 3D
• Table 21: Left and Right Views plus Depth Maps in Quadrant
• Table 22: Foreground, Background and Depth Maps in Quadrant Formats
• Table 23: Retail Price Increment for OEM to upgrade 3D-ready to 3DTV
• Table 24: 3D Source Forecast Summary