全球快闪内存市场的动向及未来展望

Abstract

The flash memory market has growth at an extremely fast rate, especially when compared with all other types of semiconductors. Much of this can be owed to the rabid use of flash memory in iPod portable media players, but also to the growth of the cellular phone market, where over 1.2 billion handsets are expected to be sold worldwide this year alone, as well as other electronic devices. We also investigate the various flash memory vendors, as well as their upcoming technology innovations and fabrication plant production plans.

Within the flash memory market there are two architectures NOR and NAND. In this report, we include projections for both NAND and NOR revenues and shipments. In 2005, total NAND revenues surpassed NOR revenues for the first time. The cellular phone is becoming a more important device for populating NAND chips, when that device previously almost exclusively used NOR chips. Besides the cellular phone market we dissect the various applications and devices where flash memory chips are being and will be used. We include projections for these major applications and devices that use flash memory.

Within its traditional core PC market, flash memory continues to play an important role, especially with the recent release of Microsoft' s new operating system-Vista. This new OS supports two new flash memory schemes ReadyBoost and ReadyDrive. Microsoft' s old partner, Intel has also gotten into the act with Turbo Memory (code name Robson), which support a flash memory architecture on the PC motherboard. Last of all solid state drives using flash memory and hybrid hard drives (HHD) using flash memory cache are beginning to appear in PCs. All of these latest innovations are designed to boost PC speed, performance and reliability and should insurance a greater use of flash memory with or within the PC for the foreseeable future.

We also present information on research into shrinking the flash die size and creating newer architectures such as Phase Change Memory and 3D Memory. Although the most cutting edges of these technologies are still years away from mass production, they may offer the next leap in flash memory technology.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

1. Worldwide Flash Memory Market Trends and Forecasts 2005 - 2010

• 1.1 Worldwide NOR + NAND Market Demand and Forecast
  • Table 1-1 Worldwide NOR + NAND Market Demand and Forecast
  • Figure 1-1 Worldwide NOR + NAND Market Demand and Forecast
• 1.2 Worldwide Flash Memory Market Demand and Forecast by Type NAND or NOR
  • Table 1-2Worldwide Market Demand and Forecast by Type NAND or NOR
  • Figure 1-2Worldwide Market Demand and Forecast byType NAND or NOR 2006
  • Figure 1-3Worldwide Market Demand and Forecast by Type NAND or NOR 2010
• 1.3 Flash Memory Vendor Production 2005 - 2006
  • 1.3.1 Total Flash Memory (NAND + NOR)
    • Table 1-3 Market Share by Vendors
    • Figure 1-4 Market Share by Vendors
  • 1.3.2 NAND Market Share by Vendors 2005 - 2006
    • Table 1-4 NAND Market Share by Vendors
    • Figure 1-5 NAND Market Share by Vendors
    • 1.3.2.1NAND Competitors & Strategic Position
      • 1.3.2.1.1 Samsung Electronics
      • 1.3.2.1.2 Intel
      • 1.3.2.1.3 IM Flash Technologies LLC (Intel and Micron Joint Venture)
      • 1.3.2.1.4 Micron
      • 1.3.2.1.5 Toshiba
      • 1.3.2.1.6 SanDisk
      • 1.3.2.1.7 Hynix
  • 1.3.3NOR Market Share by Vendors
    • Table 1-5 NOR Market Share by Vendors
    • Figure 1-6 NOR Market Share by Vendors
    • 1.3.3.1NOR Competitors and Strategic Position
      • 1.3.3.1.1 Spansion Inc.
      • 1.3.3.1.2 Samsung
      • 1.3.3.1.3 Intel and STMicroelectronics
• 1.4 Flash Memory Vendors Production (Fabrication Plant Expansion) Status and Plans
  • 1.4.1 Samsung Electronics
  • 1.4.2 Toshiba and SanDisk
  • 1.4.3 Intel
  • 1.4.4 STMicroelectronics
  • 1.4.5 Intel and STMicroelectronics NOR Flash Private Company
  • 1.4.6 Spansion
• 1.5 Flash Memory Storage Devices
  • 1.5.1 2006 Worldwide Market Share by Memory Card Format
    • Table 1-6 Market Share by Memory Card Format
    • Figure 1-7 Market Share by Memory Card Format
    • Table 1-7 Card Format Type, Major Vendors and Applications
    • 1.5.1.1Types of Flash Memory Cards
    • 1.5.1.2Newer Flash Card Memory Formats
  • 1.5.2 Flash Memory Card Market Demand and Forecast 2005 - 2010
    • 1.5.2.1Worldwide Market Demand and Forecast
    • Table 1-8 Market Demand and Forecast
    • Figure 1-8 Market Demand and Forecast (QTY)
    • Figure 1-9 Market Demand and Forecast (Revenue)
  • 1.5.3 Flash Memory Card Vendors and Strategic Position
    • Table 1-9 Vendors Market Share 2006
    • Figure 1-10 Vendors Market Share 2006
    • 1.5.3.1SanDisk
    • 1.5.3.2Lexar/Micron
    • 1.5.3.3Sony
• 1.6 Worldwide USB Flash Drives Market Production Demand 2005 - 2010
  • Table 1-10 Market Demand and Forecast
  • Figure 1-11 Market Demand and Forecast (QTY)
  • Figure 1-12 Market Demand and Forecast (Revenue)
  • Figure 1-13 USB Flash Drives Capacity Trends
  • 1.6.1 Microsoft Vista' s Ready boost
  • 1.6.2 Capacity Trends
    • Table 1-11 Average Annual Capacity Increase of Flash Memory Chip 2005 - 2010
    • Figure 1-14 NAND Flash Yearly Change in Capacity
    • Figure 1-15 NOR Flash Yearly Change in Capacity
  • 1.6.3 Scaling Problem
    • 1.6.3.1 Movements to 50 nm, 40 nm and 35 nm Manufacturing Process
• 1.7Price Trends
  • Table 1-12 NAND and NOR Price Percentage Change Per Year 2005 - 2010
  • Figure 1-16 NAND and NOR Price Percentage Change Per Year 2005 - 2010
  • Figure 1-17 Flash Memory Cards Price Trends 2004 - 2006

2.Flash Memory Applications and Products Trends and Forecasts

• 2.1 B2C & B2B
  • 2.1.1 B2C
  • Table 2-1 Portable Devices (Application or Product, Technology Type, Vendor)
  • Table 2-2 Non-Portable Devices (Application or Product, Technology Type, Vendor)
  • Table 2-3 Flash Memory Segment: Characteristics and Applications (Segment, Characteristics, Applications)
  • 2.1.2 B2B
  • Table 2-4 Portable Devices (Application or Product, Technology Type, Vendor)
  • Table 2-5 Non-Portable Devices (Application or Product, Technology Type, Vendor)
• 2.2 Market Forecasts for Flash Memory Applications and Products
  • 2.2.1 B2C
    • 2.2.1.1 Portable Devices
      • Table 2-6 Worldwide Portable Devices Unit Sales and Forecast 2005 - 2010
      • Figure 2-1 Worldwide Cellular Phone Unit Sales Projections 2005 - 2010
      • Figure 2-2 Worldwide MP3 and PMP Units sales Projections 2005 - 2010
      • Figure 2-3 Worldwide PDA/Handheld PC Sales Projections 2005 - 2010
      • Figure 2-4 Worldwide Digital Camera Sales Projections 2005 - 2010
      • Figure 2-5 Worldwide Notebook PC Sales Projections 2005 - 2010
      • 2.2.1.1.1 Cellular Phones
        • Table 2-7 Worldwide Mobile Phones and Smartphones Market Share by Vendor 2006
        • Figure 2-6 Worldwide Market Share for Mobile Phone 2006
      • 2.2.1.1.2 MP3/PMP
        • Table 2-8 US Market Shares by Vendor 2006
        • Figure 2-7 US Market Share by Vendor 2006
        • Figure 2-8 Walletex MP3 Player
      • 2.2.1.1.3 PDA/Handheld PCs
        • Table 2-9 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006
        • Figure 2-9 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006
      • 2.2.1.1.4 Digital Cameras
        • Table 2-10 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006
        • Figure 2-10 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006
      • 2.2.1.1.5 Notebook PCs
        • Table 2-11 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006
        • Figure 2-11 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006
      • 2.2.1.1.6 Portable Video Games
        • Table 2-12 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006
        • Figure 2-12 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006
      • 2.2.1.2 Non-Portable Devices
        • Table 2-13 Market Demand and Forecast 2005 - 2010
        • Figure 2-13 Worldwide Desktop PC Units Shipment Projection
        • Figure 2-14 Worldwide Set Top Box Sales Projections
        • Figure 2-15 Worldwide Ink Jet Printer Sales Projections
        • Figure 2-16 Worldwide Current Generation Video Game Consoles Projections
        • 2.2.1.2.1 Desktop PCs
          • Table 2-14 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006
          • Figure 2-17 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006
        • 2.2.1.2.2 Set Top Boxes
        • 2.2.1.2.3 Inkjet Printers
          • Table 2-15 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006
          • Figure 2-18 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006
        • 2.2.1.2.4 Video Games
          • Table 2-16 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006
          • Figure 2-19 Worldwide Market Share by Vendor 2006
  • 2.2.2 B2B
    • 2.2.2.1Ruggedized Notebook PCs with Flash Drives
    • 2.2.2.2 SSD in Data Centers and Enterprises
    • 2.2.2.3SSDs in Server Applications

3. Future Products Using Flash Memory

• 3.1 What is happening with Flash Memory?
  • 3.1.1 Flash Needs to Shrink
  • 3.1.2 Technology Limitations and Consumer Needs
• 3.2 New Flash Technologies
  • 3.2.1 New Flash Memory Architecture
    • 3.2.1.1IBM, Macronix and Qimonda
    • 3.2.1.2Samsung' s PRAM
    • 3.2.1.3Intel and STMicroelectronics PRAM
  • 3.2.2 Other Cutting Edge Memory Technology
    • 3.2.2.1Samsung and 3D Stacking Techniques
    • 3.2.2.2Organic Materials in Flash Manufacturing
    • 3.2.2.3Memory Cell Technology
  • 3.2.3 Flash Gives a Boost to PC Share
    • 3.2.3.1Windows Vista ReadyBoost and ReadyDrive and Intel' s Robson (Turbo Memory)
    • 3.2.3.2PC Vendors Support for Turbo Memory
  • 3.2.4 Solid State Hard Drive and Hybrid Hard Drives
    • Table 3-1Percentages of Notebook PCs with Some Form of Internal Flash Storage
    • Figure 3-1Percentages of Notebook PCs with Some Form of Internal Flash Storage
    • 3.2.4.1How the HHD-Flash Market Will Play Out
• 3.3 New and Emerging Applications
  • 3.3.1 B2C
  • 3.3.1.1Automobile Market
  • 3.3.2 B2B
    • 3.3.2.1Data Storage
    • 3.3.2.2Solid State Drives (SSD) in the Business, Corporate and Military Markets
      • 3.3.2.2.1 Market Segments
      • 3.3.2.2.2 Core Applications
      • 3.3.2.2.3 Other Business and Military Applications

4. Most Promising New Flash Memory Architectures

• 4.1 Phase Change Memory
  • 4.1.1 Difference Between IBM' s and Samsung' s in Phase Change Architecture
  • 4.1.2 3D Fabrication
• 4.2 Most Promising Consumer Applications and Devices for Flash Memory
• 4.3 SSDs for the Business and Corporate Markets
• 4.4 Successful Flash Manufacturing Strategies
  • 4.4.1 Shifting Between Flash and DRAM
  • 4.4.2 Flash Fab Capacity Trends
  • 4.4.3 Variations in Flash and Standardization
  • 4.4.4 Flash Joint Venture Strategies
• 4.5 Most Promising Types of Flash Memory
  • 4.5.1 Flash Memory Types
  • 4.5.2 Memory Cards
• 4.6 Future Directions and Trends
  • 4.6.1 Flash Manufacturing Process Key Findings
  • 4.6.2 Future Directions in the HDD-Flash Battle
  • 4.6.3 Trends in the Flash Memory Market