Abstract
Overview
Introduction
Verdict Research: The run-up to Christmas is a vital trading period for the majority of UK retailers and, with such a high proportion of the UK' s annual retail spending crammed into such a relatively brief period of time, it reveals important trends that will continue to influence consumer spending. This brief examines the retail trends emerging from Christmas 2007 to draw lessons for 2008.
Scope
- The briefing provides an invaluable summary of performance in Q4 2007, with retail sales per month, growth rates, volume and inflation levels.
- It features like-for-like performance of the major retailers during the important Christmas trading period and analyses the trends that emerged.
- Performance is analysed by sector highlighting key issues both for individual retailers and for all sector participants.
Report Highlights
Retailers that are overly reliant on Christmas will struggle as price competition becomes ever more fierce. The proportion of sales taken in Q4 has fallen in value terms and retailers unable to drive higher sales in other parts of the year will suffer.
Online players were among the clear winners for Christmas 2007. We estimate that online sales grew 38% to £4.8bn in Q4 2007, benefiting both pureplay and multichannel operators. Despite growing economic worries, luxury and premium spending also remained strong as shoppers looked to indulgent purchases to buoy their mood.
Flexibility has been another key theme. Retailers with the ability to flex space to capitalise on fast growing categories were among the best performers this Christmas, including supermarkets, department stores and entertainment retailers.
Reasons to Purchase
- Plan for Christmas 2008 with this comprehensive, yet compact overview of UK retail in Christmas 2007.
- Use insight into changing buying and seasonal habits to influence developing retail strategies.
- Use Verdict' s analysis of the key trends in Q4 2007 to develop the most efficient contemporary retail models and avoid the pitfalls of weak operators.
Table of Contents
- VERDICT VIEW
- CATALYST
- SUMMARY
- ANALYSIS
- Key Trends Emerging from Christmas 2007
- Retail Sales in Q4 2007 - A strong start but a disappointing finish...
- Sector Trends
- Reliance on Q4 diminishing but still vital for most sectors...
- Deflation/Inflation - competition vs cost pressures...
- Retailer Trends
- Food & Grocery - premium products popular ...
- Electricals - deflation, deflation, deflation...
- Books, Music & Video - games focus rejuvenates sector ...
- Homewares - disconcerting results in furniture ...
- Clothing & Footwear - some respectable results under difficult conditions ...
- Other specialist retailers - consumers pamper themselves and their pets ...
- Department stores - luxury buoys market ...
- General retailers - high street disappoints ...
- Appendix
- Appendix: Food & Grocery retailers total UK Christmas sales growth
- Appendix: Electricals retailers total UK Christmas sales growth
- Appendix: Books, Music & Video retailers total UK Christmas sales growth
- Appendix: Homewares retailers total UK Christmas sales growth
- Appendix: Clothing & Footwear retailers total UK Christmas sales growth
- Appendix: Other specialist retailers total UK Christmas sales growth
- Appendix: General retailers total UK Christmas sales growth
- Appendix: Department stores total UK Christmas sales growth
- Key Trends Emerging from Christmas 2007
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Key trends in UK retail Christmas 2007
- Table 2: Retail Sales Q4, 2007 vs 2005 and 2006
- Table 3: Sector Like-for-Like Sales 2007 vs 2006
- Table 4: Food & Grocery, Christmas Like-for-Like Sales Growth, 2007 vs 2006
- Table 5: Electricals, Christmas Like-for-Like Sales Growth, 2007 vs 2006
- Table 6: Books, Music & Video, Christmas Like-for-Like Sales Growth, 2007 vs 2006
- Table 7: Homewares, Christmas Like-for-Like Sales Growth, 2007 vs 2006
- Table 8: Clothing Retailers, Christmas Like-for-Like Sales Growth, 2007 vs 2006
- Table 9: Online/Home Shopping Clothing Specialists, Christmas Like-for-Like Sales Growth, 2007 vs 2006
- Table 10: Other Specialist Retailers, Christmas Like-for-Like Sales Growth, 2007 vs 2006
- Table 11: Department Stores, Christmas Like-for-Like Sales Growth, 2007 vs 2006
- Table 12: General Retailers, Christmas Like-for-Like Sales Growth, 2007 vs 2006
- Table 13: Food & Grocery, Total UK Christmas Sales Growth, 2007 vs 2006
- Table 14: Electricals, Total UK Christmas Sales Growth, 2007 vs 2006
- Table 15: Books, Music & Video, Total UK Christmas Sales Growth, 2007 vs 2006
- Table 16: Homewares, Total UK Christmas Sales Growth, 2007 vs 2006
- Table 17: Clothing Retailers, Total UK Christmas Sales Growth, 2007 vs 2006
- Table 18: Other Specialist Retailers, Total UK Christmas Sales Growth, 2007 vs 2006
- Table 19: General Retailers, Total UK Christmas Sales Growth, 2007 vs 2006
- Table 20: Department Stores, Total UK Christmas Sales Growth, 2007 vs 2006
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Q4 Growth Trends 2002-2007 %
- Figure 2: Q4 2007 Value Growth %
- Figure 3: Q4 2007 Volume Growth %
- Figure 4: Q4 sales as % of total sales, by sector, 2007
- Figure 5: Q4 sales growth compared to rest of year, by sector, 2007
- Figure 6: Q4 Inflation/Deflation 2006-07 and forecast 2008, by sector (1)
- Figure 7: Q4 Inflation/Deflation 2006-08, by sector (2)
