Abstract
Overview
Introduction
Uncertainty currently clouds the economic prospects of both the US and world economies. This is because the US economy for the past decade has represented around 30% percent of the world total. The deepening international economic downturn is encouraging consumers to adjust their attitudes towards consumption but a gap exists however between shifting attitudes and actual behaviors
Scope
- Insightful analysis documenting the drivers behind consumers' increasingly recessionary attitudes and behaviors
- Qualitative examination of how, why, and to what extent consumers' recessionary concerns are changing actual consumption in the CPG space
- Detailed action points offering practical strategies based on the trends and insights analyzed in the report
- Covering nine core countries across Europe, North America and Australasia; France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, UK, US and Australia
Highlights
Maintaining brand support through difficult times helps take advantage of competitors who often reduce marketing efforts. As consumers spend more time considering options before they spend money, this increases the likelihood of getting their attention with effective communications
Consumers may feel increasingly pessimistic and pressured by the negative economic environment, but this does not necessarily lead to a change in their behavior. An attitude-behavior gap exists making it essential for the CPG industry to be clear on the difference between what consumers are saying and when/if they actually start acting on it
Premium CPG products have in-built advantages in a recessionary environment. Dedicated premium consumers either tend to have income advantages supporting their consumption behavior or will make sacrifices in other areas to maintain their premium spending
Reasons to Purchase
- Improve decision making: cutting marketing spend can be a mistake; use this report to understand the tactics required for success in a recession
- Understand the key issues affecting consumers' FMCG consumption against the backdrop of a recession
- Access insightful qualitative data aggregating the most compelling and recent research in this timely and important topic
Table of Contents
- Overview
- Catalyst
- Summary
- CONTENTS
- Table of figures
- THE FUTURE DECODED
- INTRODUCTION: Industry players must implement tactics that help overcome the negative impact of the economic downturn
- TREND: Economic trends are pressuring consumers into a ' re cessionary
mindset'
- The state of the economy is a dominant and growing consumer concern in the current downturn
- Property price and mortgage lending contractions have been a key force souring consumers' outlook
- Consumers have funded their continued spending with unsecured debt
- The credit crunch is catching up with marketers' favored consumers: 18-24 year olds
- Commodity prices are the biggest threat to consumers' general spending
behavior
- Food prices in particular represent a central issue for consumers
- Escalating fuel prices are also a significant threat to CPG spending
- Key take-outs and implications: structural economic issues are at the root of consumers' emergent ' recessionary mindset'
- TREND: Declining consumer confidence is influencing shopper attitudes and
behaviors towards groceries
- The US sub-prime crisis is shaking national confidence levels not only in the American markets but in Europe and Australia
- Consumers are cutting their spending habits back
- Recessionary consumers are looking to save rather than spend
- Retail sales are in decline in the US and most major European economies
- Recessionary consumers are looking for value for money in their CPG
purchases
- Price cutting can be a lure to value-conscious consumers
- On-trade behaviors are changing to reflect consumers' financial sensitivity
- Cost-conscious consumers are going out less
- Consumers are looking to recreate the on-trade experience at home
- Key take-outs and implications: cautious consumers want good value but still expect high quality
- INSIGHT: Recessionary consumers exhibit an attitude-behavior gap in CPG
spending
- Demographic factors influence CPG behavior in a downturn
- The active threat of recession-driven behavior varies between CPG categories
- Recessionary consumers are more likely to alter where they shop before altering what they shop for
- Key take-outs and implications: various factors influence whether or when consumers' financial concerns change their consumption behavior
- INSIGHT: Premium CPG spending is relatively resistant to recessionary
pressures
- Post-materialist consumers fuel the premium market with" less but better" attitudes
- ' Maturialism' : older consumers are increasingly prone to trading up
- Time-poor consumers trade up to premium products and services to save time
- The premium market may contract, but it is less likely to experience a revolutionary shift towards trading down
- Premium consumers are unlikely to trade down; mass consumers are less likely to trade up
- Consumers will sustain premium food spending for longer
- Health will remain a powerful motivator in consumers' decisions to buy premium
- Ethical products have built-in recession-resistance
- Key take-outs and implications: industry players are advised to maintain investment in premium products
- Conclusions: good planning and good marketing will help offset any negative impact associated with consumers' recessionary mindset
- ACTION POINTS
- ACTION: Separate the effects of the economic downturn from pre-existing
consumer trends
- Separate underlying consumer behavior from that supposedly driven by the downturn
- Identify consumer groups expected to be affected by the downturn and track whether forecast behavioral changes materialize
- Differentiate between short-term knee-jerk changes in behavior and longer-term behavioral shifts
- Increase the granularity and frequency of consumer assessments and improve responsiveness to change
- Recognize the broader competitive (and switching)environment
- ACTION: Strengthen price-point diversity in product portfolios to cater
for consumers who are trading-down
- Don' t try to change what your brand represents through price cuts and endless promotions
- Focus on value not price (especially if you are an established brand) as a way to recognize the impact of economic squeeze on target shoppers
- Develop a ' pricing architecture' with a value line,allowing consumers to trade down within a brand stable
- Explore opportunities to enhance distribution through value channels
- Be prepared to re-align products towards the lower end of the market as the mid-market becomes an even more precarious place to be
- ACTION: Ensure product price increases are linked to performance benefits
- Excel in the provision of factors associated with the Premium Price Index (PPI)
- Maximize sensory appeal and benefits
- Appeal to post-materialist consumers innate premium desires and "less but better" mindset
- Maintain, or even increase, customer service efforts
- Position "package shrink" as "green"or at least communicate the rationale for adopting this approach
- Pursue opportunities aligned with important consumer trends such as premiumization, health and wellness and ethical consumerism
- ACTION: Maintain or increase marketing investment to help offset
difficulties of operating in an uncertain economic environment
- Maintain advertising efforts to help maintain differentiation of branded products
- Maintain a strong focus on innovation and R&D during times of
economic uncertainty
- Use Datamonitor' s strategic reports outlining the key innovation opportunities that arise from consumer mega-trends
- Explore alternative channels for delivery of marketing messages and invest in channel marketing tactics and new territories
- ACTION: Examine broader initiatives that can be undertaken to help lower overall costs for target consumers
- ACTION: Separate the effects of the economic downturn from pre-existing
consumer trends
- APPENDIX
- Methodology
- Further reading and references
- Ask the analyst
- Datamonitor consulting
- Disclaimer
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Good value for money has become the most important influence over grocery store choice globally
- Figure 2: Different age groups' recessionary CPG behaviors will vary based on their range of needs and exposure to financial pressures
- Figure 3: Key CPG categories face varying levels of risk from changing consumer attitudes and behaviors
- Figure 4: Larger distribution formats with price competitiveness and bulk-buying opportunities have enhanced appeal to recessionary consumers
- Figure 5: A number of consumer and economic drivers and inhibitors will shape premiumization in an uncertain economic environment
- Figure 6: A contraction of the premium market is expected - its extent will be driven by the duration of the economic uncertainty
- Figure 7: Case Study: Anheuser-Busch has shown beer to be a resilient market through performance of its low-end brands
- Figure 8: Firms in the middle need to move either up or down-market or face "death in the middle"
- Figure 9: Manufacturers must excel-more than competitors-in the provision of factors associated with the PPI in order to justify price increases during times of recession
- Figure 10: Case study: Diageo has expanded its high-end spirits offerings into ' discernment territory'
- Figure 11: Consumers will become more savvy to shrinking pack sizes which makes the ethical stance all the more important
- Figure 12: Case Study: Starbucks boosted customer loyalty and provided additional savings through free Wi-Fi and reward schemes in 2008
- Figure 13: Case Study: US auto makers appeal to consumers' concerns over fuel prices with free and subsidized gasoline deals with new vehicle purchases
