Abstract
Overview
Introduction
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the commercial property insurance market in the UK. It looks at the size of the market, claims costs and the main market trends. It also includes forecasts of the size of the market and the profitability of the market up until 2012.
Scope
- In-depth analysis of GWP and the underwriting result for the commercial property insurance market
- Data on the key drivers of claims inflation
- Three different scenarios looking at the future prospects for premium income and claims inflation until 2012.
Highlights
Intense competition in the commercial property market saw GWP continue on its downward trajectory. It shed a further 7.1% off its 2006 level falling to £4.6 billion. After three consecutive years of decline, the market looks on the verge of turning the corner, with increased underwriting discipline set to return to the market.
Following a fall in claims costs in 2006, largely as a result of benign weather conditions, windstorm Kyrill and the summer floods of 2007 were the chief contributors towards an upward spike in the cost of commercial property claims from weather-related incidents.
The increase in business interruption costs in 2007 came largely as a result of weather damage. After falling by 57% in 2006, claims costs following weather damage increased by 730% from £20m to £166m, in 2007.
Reasons to Purchase
- Gain a deeper insight into key trends in the UK commercial property market
- Develop a greater understanding of the key drivers of claims inflation
- Provides three different future market scenarios
Table of Contents
- DATAMONITOR VIEW
- CATALYST
- SUMMARY
- MARKET CONTEXT
- Introduction
- Despite falling GWP, the commercial property insurancemarket made a
respectable return in 2006
- GWP in the commercial property market continued to fall in2007
- Commercial property insurance remained profitable in 2006albeit at lower levels
- Market expense and claims ratios showed little movement
- The claims ratio remained fairly static in 2006
- The expense ratio experienced the greatest movementbetween 2005 and 2006
- The underwriting ratio suffered a negligible deteriorationin 2006
- Commercial property claims costs soared in 2007 due to thesummer floods
- The summer floods effectively pushed weather-relatedclaims costs up significantly in 2007
- Weather claims costs were much higher in 2007
- Business interruption costs following both fire andweather damage rose in 2007
- The increase in the total cost of theft claims was mainlydriven by an increase in the total number of claims
- The summer weather events were estimated to cost theindustry £3 billion
- The windstorm "Kyrill" left insurers with anestimated bill of £350m
- Heavy rainfall in both June and July led to flooding invarious locations across the UK costing the insurance industry anestimated £3 billion
- Insurers believe that commercial property fire regulationshould be
reformed
- Despite a blaze at a Cornish hotel, the number ofcommercial property fires was down even though overall costs were not
- Insurers are alarmed over non-existent government measuresregarding the prevention of warehouse fires
- The impact of fires on modern construction is not alwaysfully known
- FUTURE DECODED
- Introduction
- Under the neutral scenario the market makes anunderwriting profit
between 2008 and 2012
- The commercial property market moves into a loss as fiercecompetition maintains downward pressure on premiums
- Datamonitor forecasts that after contracting in 2007, thecommercial property market will grow to £5.4 billion in GWP by 2012
- The commercial property market experienced a largeunderwriting loss in 2007 but is forecast to make underwriting profitsfrom 2008 onwards
- The market remains unprofitable in our pessimisticscenario throughout
the forecast period
- The market experiences intense competition in 2007 andpressure continues to be exerted on rates for longer than anticipated
- The market is expected to contract sharply again in 2008under this pessimistic scenario
- The market is estimated to have made a large underwritingloss in 2007 and is forecast to remain unprofitable
- In the optimistic scenario, commercial property insuranceGWP increased
steadily between 2008 and 2012 and the market makes solidunderwriting profits
- After intense price competition in 2007, the market seesprices rise in 2008 and thereafter
- The commercial property insurance market experiencesstrong growth after a dip in 2007
- The commercial property insurance market returns toprofitability in 2008
- APPENDIX
- Definitions
- ABI definitions
- Brokers
- National brokers
- Chain brokers & telebrokers
- Other intermediaries & brokers
- Direct
- Other company agents
- Utilities/retailers/affinity groups
- Company staff
- Banks/building societies
- Written premiums
- Gross premiums
- SynThesys Non-Life database definitions
- Total commercial property
- Further reading
- Ask the analyst
- Datamonitor consulting
- Disclaimer
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Commercial property insurance GWP, 2002-07e
- Table 2: Commercial property insurance underwritingaccount, 2002-06
- Table 3: Commercial property insurance claims, expenseand underwriting ratios, 2002-06
- Table 4: Gross incurred commercial property claims byperil, 2003-07 (£m)
- Table 5: Weather-related claims costs for commercialproperty insurance, 2003-07 (£m)
- Table 6: Costs of business interruption claims by cause,2003-07 (£m)
- Table 7: Cost, volume and average value of commercialproperty theft claims, 2003-07
- Table 8: Neutral scenario: Key variables affectingcommercial property insurance GWP, 2007e-2012f
- Table 9: Neutral scenario: forecast GWP for thecommercial property market, 2002-2012f
- Table 10: Neutral scenario: forecast underwriting resultfor commercial property, 2002-12
- Table 11: Pessimistic scenario: Key variables affectingcommercial property insurance GWP, 2007e-2012f
- Table 12: Pessimistic scenario: forecast GWP for thecommercial property market, 2007e-2012f
- Table 13: Pessimistic scenario: forecast underwritingresult for the commercial property insurance market, 2002-2012f
- Table 14: Optimistic scenario: Key variables affectingcommercial property insurance GWP, 2007e-2012f
- Table 15: Optimistic scenario: forecast GWP growth,2007e-2012f
- Table 16: Optimistic scenario: forecast underwritingresult for the commercial property market, 2002-2012f
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: The commercial property underwriting resultdecreased in 2006
- Figure 2: The commercial property insurance underwritingratio fell slightly in 2006 as the expense ratio rose
- Figure 3: Weather claims costs increased significantlyin 2007, while other costs remained fairly flat
- Figure 4: The cost of commercial propertyweather-related claims grew significantly in 2007
- Figure 5: The surge in business interruption costs wasdriven by claims following weather damage
- Figure 6: In 2007, the number of theft claims began toincrease, while average value leveled off
- Figure 7: Under our neutral scenario, GWP declinesfurther in 2008 before experiencing solid growth between 2009 and 2012
- Figure 8: Under our neutral scenario the market makes anunderwriting profit between 2008 and 2012
- Figure 9: Under our pessimistic scenario, GWP grows lessthan 1% annually between 2007 and 2012
- Figure 10: Under our pessimistic scenario the marketremains unprofitable
- Figure 11: Under our optimistic scenario, commercialproperty insurance GWP is set to reach £6.1 billion in 2012
- Figure 12: Under our optimistic scenario the marketmakes strong profits
