Abstract
“CSPs and vendors are turning to emerging markets in search of opportunities as the rate of market growth slows down in developed countries.”
Product overview
As the rate of market growth slows down in developed countries, CSPs and vendors are turning to emerging markets in search of opportunities. Market liberalisation in countries such as India and Russia has driven a dramatic increase in competition and, as a result, revenue growth. Markets in the Middle East and Africa are also becoming more open. OSS Observer forecasts that revenue will grow at an 11% CAGR from 2007 - 2012 in emerging markets.
In this report, OSS Observer separates some developing markets from the broader ' emerging markets' category in order to highlight differences in their characteristics. Developing markets will show higher revenue growth during the forecast period - at a 17% CAGR, compared with 9% in emerging markets, from 2007 - 2012. However, emerging markets will represent a much greater revenue opportunity: service revenue in these markets is forecast to reach $613 billion in 2012, compared with $265 billion in developing markets. The report also includes an analysis of sub-regions - Central Africa and Latin America, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and non-developed Asia - Pacific - because each presents its own opportunities and challenges.
For each sub-region, the report provides 2006 market shares and 2007 - 2012 forecasts for:
- mobile revenue
- mobile subscribers
- residential broadband revenue
- residential broadband subscribers
- business services revenue
- PSTN revenue
- PSTN lines.
Emerging markets outlook addresses the following key issues:
- How do market drivers and business environments differ among emerging and developing markets?
- Will mobile services be the dominant type of telecoms service in emerging markets?
- How will macro- and socio-economic conditions impact growth in emerging markets?
- Why does revenue growth lag subscriber growth in developing markets?
- Which CSPs have been successful in expanding beyond their home markets and entering emerging or developing markets?
- What challenges are posed by the lack of infrastructure in developing markets?
- Why do Brazil, Russia, India and China (the ' BRIC' countries) present distinct opportunities?
- Which market players are taking innovative approaches to PSTN services?
- Why does subscriber growth present challenges as well as opportunities?
- How can CSPs benefit from the growth in emerging markets?
- What opportunities do emerging markets present for vendors?
The report also provides population, GDP and GDP per capita information for each country, as well as 2006 total and service revenue and subscriber information on more than 50 Tier 1 and Tier 2 CSPs that operate in emerging markets.
Table of Contents
- Executive summary
- Market forecast
- Regional analysis
- Emerging market drivers and inhibitors
- Developing market drivers and inhibitors
- Business environment
- CSP definitions
- Appendix
List of Figures and Tables
- Figure 1: Emerging/developing markets revenue forecast 2007 - 2012
- Figure 2: Service revenue by region
- Figure 3: Service revenue forecast by region
- Figure 4: Emerging markets revenue forecast 2007 - 2012
- Figure 5: Developing markets revenue forecast 2007 - 2012
- Figure 6: Revenue share by service: Africa
- Figure 7: Africa market share by revenue, year-end 2006
- Figure 8: Africa revenue forecast 2007-2012
- Figure 9: Africa subscriber forecast 2007-2012
- Figure 10: Revenue share by service: CALA
- Figure 11: CALA market share by revenue, year-end 2006
- Figure 12: CALA revenue forecast 2007-2012
- Figure 13: CALA subscriber forecast 2007-2012
- Figure 14: Revenue share by service: Eastern Europe
- Figure 15: Eastern Europe market share by revenue, year-end 2006
- Figure 16: Eastern Europe revenue forecast 2007-2012
- Figure 17: Eastern Europe subscriber forecast 2007-2012
- Figure 18: Revenue share by service: Middle East
- Figure 19: Middle East market share by revenue, year-end 2006
- Figure 20: Middle East revenue forecast 2007-2012
- Figure 21: Middle East subscriber forecast 2007-2012
- Figure 22: Revenue share by service: Non-developed Asia - Pacific
- Figure 23: Non-developed Asia - Pacific market share by revenue, year-end 2006
- Figure 24: Non-developed Asia - Pacific revenue forecast 2007-2012
- Figure 25: Non-developed Asia - Pacific subscriber forecast 2007-2012
- Figure 26: Distribution of population in emerging/developing markets
- Figure 27: Breakdown of countries: Africa
- Figure 28: Breakdown of countries: CALA
- Figure 29: Breakdown of countries: Eastern Europe
- Figure 30: Breakdown of countries: Middle East
- Figure 31: Breakdown of countries: Non-developed Asia - Pacific
- Figure 32: Average GDP/capita
- Figure A---1: Mobile revenue share: Africa
- Figure A2: Mobile subscriber share: Africa
- Figure A3: Residential broadband revenue share: Africa
- Figure A4: Residential broadband subscriber share: Africa
- Figure A5: Business services revenue share: Africa
- Figure A6: PSTN revenue share: Africa
- Figure A7: PSTN line share: Africa
- Figure A8: Mobile revenue share: CALA
- Figure A9: Mobile subscriber share: CALA
- Figure A10: Residential broadband revenue share: CALA
- Figure A11: Residential broadband subscriber share: CALA
- Figure A12: Business services revenue share: CALA
- Figure A13: PSTN revenue share: CALA
- Figure A14: PSTN line share: CALA
- Figure A15: Mobile revenue share: Eastern Europe
- Figure A16: Mobile subscriber share: Eastern Europe
- Figure A17: Residential broadband revenue share: Eastern Europe
- Figure A18: Residential broadband subscriber share: Eastern Europe
- Figure A19: Business services revenue share: Eastern Europe
- Figure A20: PSTN revenue share: Eastern Europe
- Figure A21: PSTN line share: Eastern Europe
- Figure A22: Mobile revenue share: Middle East
- Figure A23: Mobile subscriber share: Middle East
- Figure A24: Residential broadband revenue share: Middle East
- Figure A25: Residential broadband subscriber share: Middle East
- Figure A26: Business services revenue share: Middle East
- Figure A27: PSTN revenue share: Middle East
- Figure A28: PSTN line share: Middle East
- Figure A29: Mobile revenue share: Non-developed Asia - Pacific
- Figure A30: Mobile subscriber share: Non-developed Asia - Pacific
- Figure A31: Residential broadband revenue share: Non-developed Asia - Pacific
- Figure A32: Residential broadband subscriber share: Non-developed Asia - Pacific
- Figure A33: Business services revenue share: Non-developed Asia - Pacific
- Figure A34: PSTN revenue share: Non-developed Asia - Pacific
- Figure A35: PSTN line share: Non-developed Asia - Pacific
- Table 1: Breakdown of revenue by service
- Table 2: World economic outlook update projections
- Table 3: Populations, distribution and average GDP per capita of sub-regions
- Table 4: CSP tiers
- Table 5: Definitions used in the analysis of service provider data
- Table A1: 2006 Tier 1 and Tier 2 CSP revenue
- Table A2: 2006 Tier 1 and Tier 2 CSP subscribers
- Table A3: List of countries, population, GDP and GDP per capita: Africa
- Table A4: List of countries, population, GDP and GDP per capita: CALA
- Table A5: List of countries, population, GDP and GDP per capita: Eastern Europe
- Table A6: List of countries, population, GDP and GDP per capita: Middle East
- Table A7: List of countries, population, GDP and GDP per capita: Non-developed Asia - Pacific
