Abstract
“Our report cuts through the hype to quantify the real potential of wireless broadband technologies over the next seven years, including the customer numbers and revenue arising from HSPA, HSPA+, EV-DO, LTE and WiMAX in each region of the world.”
Product overview
New wireless broadband technologies potentially offer operators the ability to support a broad range of fixed and mobile services. Over 200 HSDPA networks have already been launched worldwide, and future enhancements, in the form of HSPA+ and LTE, will further enhance cellular capabilities. WiMAX offers an alternative means of providing fixed and mobile broadband services, potentially sooner than LTE. This report provides detailed global forecasts for wireless broadband subscriber numbers, revenue and ARPU for the period 2008 - 2015. Forecasts are broken down by wireless broadband technology (HSPA, HSPA+, EV-DO, LTE and WiMAX) and by region (Western Europe, developed Asia, North America, Eastern Europe, rest of the Americas, rest of Asia and rest of world). The report quantifies and discusses the relative importance of cellular technologies and WiMAX, the overlooked opportunities from HSPA and HSPA+, and the growing opportunities in developing markets.
Wireless broadband forecasts for 2008 - 2015: HSPA, HSPA+, EV-DO, LTE and WiMAX answers your key questions:
- How many customers will broadband wireless technologies, including HSPA, HSPA+, EV-DO, LTE and WiMAX, attract over the period 2008 - 2015? How much revenue and ARPU will these technologies bring in?
- What is the current status of the various wireless broadband technologies, and what will drive their adoption and uptake in each region?
- How will WiMAX compare with cellular broadband technologies, in terms of take-up and revenue over the next seven years?
- How important will HSPA+ and LTE be for cellular broadband services?
- What will be the regional differences in take-up of wireless broadband technologies?
- Is there a big opportunity for WiMAX in developed or developing regions?
Who should read this report
- Mobile network operators: Senior executives, technology and network managers, to understand the likely timings of different wireless technologies and the economies of scale that will apply to each technology.
- Handset and network equipment vendors: Senior executives and product managers, to identify the size of the opportunity for wireless broadband technologies and the mix of technologies that will emerge in different regions.
- Analysts and investors: Senior executives, to understand the relative importance of different types of broadband wireless technology and to identify the different opportunities in each region of the world.
- Regulators: Senior executives, to appreciate the probable role of different wireless broadband technologies in their regions.
Authors
Dr Alastair Brydon and Dr Mark Heath are authors of more than 40 Analysys Mason reports, including: iPhone Shows the Way for Mobile TV; Critical Ingredients of Mobile TV: femtocells and sideloading; 3G Network Evolution from 2007 to 2012: HSPA+, LTE, WiMAX and femtocells; The Business Case for Picocells and Femtocells in the Enterprise Market; Femtocells in the Consumer Market: business case and marketing plan; How to Succeed with Fixed - Mobile Convergence; The Acceleration of Fixed - Mobile Substitution in Western Europe: facts and figures; Seizing the Opportunities from Enterprise Mobility; The Future of the Global Wireless Industry: scenarios for 2007 - 12; The World' s Top Ten Non-voice Services for Mobile Operators; Mobile Operator Strategies for Fixed Broadband; The Business Case for WiMAX; and Forecasting the Commercial Impact of Wireless VoIP in the USA and Western Europe.
Alastair is CEO of Sound Partners Ltd. Prior to joining Sound Partners, he reported to Nokia' s European management team and worked with many of Nokia' s customers to implement market firsts ranging from the introduction of prepaid mobile tariffs to new mass-market content services. Previously, Alastair worked in a number of roles for the BT Group, focusing on the evolution of wireless services, networks and technologies. He also contributed to international research and standardisation of GSM, DECT and 3G. Alastair holds BSc and PhD degrees from UMIST, where he was awarded the IEE Prize for top student.
Mark is Director of Research at Sound Partners Ltd. In the past, he held a number of marketing and business development roles in Nokia, ultimately becoming responsible for strategy and business development across Europe. Previously, Mark was responsible for business planning at BT Cellnet in the UK, after spending six years at BT in wireless systems research and development. He holds BSc and PhD degrees from the University of Leeds, winning the University prize for his research in telecoms. Mark also holds an MBA, graduating as top student from Henley Management College.
Table of Contents
- 4. Document map - Executive summary
- 5. Executive summary
- 6. Document map - Overall wireless broadband market
- 7. Wireless broadband will be delivered by a variety of technologies
- 8. High take-up of wireless broadband services will expand the user base from 70 million in 2008 to 2.1 billion by 2015
- 9. Cellular technologies will be the dominant means of supporting wireless broadband users
- 10. Underpinning our forecasts is growth in take-up of wireless broadband arising from some key market drivers
- 11. Developing regions will propel the number of cellular customers from 3.5 billion in 2008 to 5.0 billion by 2015
- 12. Demand for wireless broadband services, and for higher quality, will increase
- 13. To increase capacity and efficiency, MNOs will encourage migration to advanced technologies
- 14. Annual revenue from wireless broadband will represent 58% of total service revenue in 2015
- 15. Most wireless broadband users in 2015 will be in developing regions, where service revenue will be low
- 16. Document map - HSPA and HSPA+
- 17. HSPA networks are already becoming widespread
- 18. HSPA/HSPA+ will dominate wireless broadband services, with 1.1 billion customers worldwide by 2015
- 19. Worldwide annual service revenue from HSPA/HSPA+ will peak at USD410 billion in 2014
- 20. Many HSPA operators will upgrade to HSPA+, even once LTE becomes available
- 21. Document map - Broadband EV-DO
- 22. EV-DO will be limited to the niche of CDMA2000 networks and will reach 404 million customers by 2015
- 23. Developed Asia and North America will dominate EV-DO service revenue of USD174 billion in 2015
- 24. Document map - LTE
- 25. Most MNOs will not invest in WiMAX, but will evolve to LTE from HSPA and HSPA+
- 26. After a slow start, LTE growth will accelerate to gain 440 million customers by 2015
- 27. High ARPU levels will cause LTE service revenue to reach USD194 billion in 2015
- 28. Western Europe and developed Asia will lead the growth of LTE
- 29. Developing regions will account for 36% of LTE customers by 2015
- 30. Low ARPU in developing regions will limit their contribution to LTE service revenue
- 31. HSPA+ is an important technology, but LTE will have a larger user base by 2015
- 32. Document map - WiMAX
- 33. In developed markets, WiMAX will face intense competition from fixed and cellular broadband services
- 34. The limited success of fixed BWA in developed markets highlights the challenge for WiMAX
- 35. Competition from other technologies will limit WiMAX' s global customer base to 98 million in 2015
- 36. Developing regions will generate 70% of the total WiMAX service revenue of USD13 billion in 2015
- 37. Cellular broadband customers will outnumber and outspend WiMAX users
- 38. Annex - Wireless broadband technology overview
- 39. Cellular standards define a series of broadband capabilities
- 40. HSPA and HSPA+ significantly enhance UMTS radio interface performance
- 41. HSPA+ employs higher-order modulation and smart antennas to boost the performance of HSPA
- 42. EV-DO provides CDMA2000 operators with a similar evolution path to HSPA
- 43. LTE is a major development by 3GPP that will be commercially available towards the end of 2009
- 44. WiMAX IEEE 802.16e-2005 supports mobile broadband services
- 45. Document map - Authors, copyright and key to acronyms
- 46. Authors
- 47. Acknowledgements
- 48. Copyright and disclaimer
- 49. Key to acronyms
- 50. Document map - Lists of figures and tables
- 51. List of figures and tables [1]
- 52. List of figures and tables [2]
- 53. Document map - About Analysys Mason reports and services
- 54. About Analysys Mason
- 55. Reports from Analysys Mason
- 56. Market intelligence services from Analysys Mason
- 57. Custom Research from Analysys Mason
List of figures and tables[1]
- Figure 1: Technologies that deliver wide-area wireless broadband services
- Figure 2: Wireless customers worldwide, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 3: Wireless broadband customers worldwide, by technology, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 4: Key factors driving the take-up of wireless broadband services
- Figure 5: Cellular customers worldwide, by region, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 6: Service and quality drivers for wireless broadband services
- Figure 7: Estimated network capacities for W-CDMA, HSPA, HSPA+ and LTE for a typical deployment of 10 000 base stations
- Figure 8: Wireless service revenue worldwide, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 9: Proportion of wireless broadband customers in developed and developing regions, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 10: Proportion of wireless broadband service revenue from developed and developing regions, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 11: W-CDMA and HSPA active commercial networks worldwide, December 2005 to June 2008
- Figure 12: HSPA/HSPA+ customers worldwide, by region, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 13: HSPA/HSPA+ service revenue worldwide, by region, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 14: Split between HSPA and HSPA+ customers, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 15: Broadband EV-DO customers worldwide, by region, 2008 - 2015
List of figures and tables [2]
- Figure 16: Broadband EV-DO service revenue worldwide, by region, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 17: LTE customers worldwide, by region, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 18: LTE service revenue worldwide, by region, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 19: LTE customers in developed regions, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 20: LTE customers in developing regions, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 21: Proportion of LTE customers in developed and developing regions, 2012 - 2015
- Figure 22: Proportion of LTE service revenue from developed and developing regions, 2012 - 2015
- Figure 23: Number of customers worldwide using HSPA+ or LTE technology, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 24: Properties of fixed and cellular broadband services that will allow them to squeeze WiMAX services in developed regions
- Figure 25: Actual broadband connection penetration of population in Western European countries, by service type, March 2008
- Figure 26: WiMAX customers worldwide, by region, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 27: WiMAX service revenue worldwide, by region, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 28: Wireless broadband customers worldwide, by technology, 2008 - 2015
- Figure 29: ARPU from cellular broadband and WiMAX services worldwide, 2008 - 2015
- Table 1: Summary of advanced wireless broadband technologies
