Abstract
“The time-lag between the development of fixed and mobile broadband in Central and Eastern Europe is shorter than in Western Europe, making mobile broadband in the region an even more potent substitutive threat to DSL.” Rupert Wood , Principal Analyst.
Product overview
This report analyses current trends and market developments in Central and Eastern European fixed telecoms markets, and presents comprehensive forecasts for Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia and Ukraine. Both the report slide pack and the Excel data annex provide detailed forecasts of subscriber numbers, average spend per site and overall spend for three types of site (residential, small and medium business, and large business) and three basic service categories (narrowband, broadband and business networks), subdivided into appropriate service and technology components. In addition, the forecasts provide line-data forecasts for seven narrowband and broadband access technologies, broken down by business and residential segments, and volume forecasts for PSTN and VoIP-originated traffic.
Central and Eastern European fixed telecoms: market sizings and forecasts 2008 - 14 answers your key questions:
- What are the growth prospects for fixed-line operators in Central and Eastern Europe?
- How will growth differ between countries that have joined the EU and those that have not?
- Will fixed - mobile substitution slow down or accelerate?
- How much will fixed - mobile substitution affect the data/Internet market?
- What level of penetration can be expected for residential and business broadband?
- What is the relationship between GDP and the level of spend in individual markets?
Who should read this report
Central and Eastern European fixed telecoms: market sizings and forecasts 2008- 2014 is essential reading for anyone wanting to understand the key factors that will influence the nature and size of the Central and Eastern European fixed telecoms market over the next six years. The slide-pack format makes the key issues quick and easy to digest, while the Excel data tables of forecasts make this report ideal for those wanting more detailed estimates for particular countries, market segments, technologies or services.
If you are making decisions regarding investments or strategies in the fixed market - whether for an operator, vendor, investment bank, systems integrator, IT vendor, content provider or consultancy - you cannot afford to be without this report and its detailed forecasts.
Table of Contents
- 5. Document map - Introduction, scope and methodology
- 6. This report forecasts aspects of fixed telecoms markets in 12 individual countries
- 7. The data annex provides the following measures
- 8. The forecasts measure end-user spend by type of site and type of service.....
- 9. .....and are based on spend per site, not on spend per enterprise
- 10. Sites are further categorised by level of bandwidth used
- 11. Line data is broken down by the principal narrowband and broadband fixed technologies
- 12. Narrowband access and services spend has separable components
- 13. Broadband spend does not have easily separable components, but can be broken down by access technology
- 14. Business network services encompass managed and unmanaged WAN-environment data services
- 15. Fixed minutes include PSTN/ISDN and VoIP
- 16. For the purposes of this report, IPTV means linear TV delivered over broadband networks
- 17. Actual and historical market sizing is calculated around the central equation ' ASPS X penetration = spend'
- 18. There are three main sets of inputs into the forecasts
- 19. The forecasts are intended to predict outcomes rather than to model market opportunity
- 20. Document map - Individual service outlook
- 21. The timescales of fixed and mobile voice development have been different in CEE and Western Europe
- 22. The time-lag between development of mobile and fixed Internet is shorter in CEE than in Western Europe
- 23. Growth in retail telecoms service revenue has been far stronger in CEE than in Western Europe
- 24. There are important differences between the behaviours of the Russian/Ukrainian and EU10 markets
- 25. Fixed voice makes economic sense for the mass market only in circumstances that rarely apply in CEE
- 26. Voice volumes per head of population have risen sharply, but are still far below Western European levels
- 27. Mobile voice premiums are generally much lower in CEE than in Western Europe
- 28. In growth economies, surplus spend tends to go to mobile
- 29. Because of these factors, we forecast continuing steep declines in PSTN voice volumes and spend
- 30. The market for retail VoIP is immature and does little to stem the flow of voice to mobile
- 31. Several different patterns are emerging in the growth of the number of mobile-only households
- 32. Mobile broadband is a potent threat to fixed, and will limit the growth of fixed broadband
- 33. A high proportion of broadband users in CEE use local wireless and wired LAN networks
- 34. DSL will peak swiftly in the EU10, and fixed broadband take-up will remain lower than in Western Europe
- 35. DSL will continue to gain share of broadband in Russia and Ukraine
- 36. The opportunity for pay TV in CEE is real, but NGA and IPTV may not be the best way to address it
- 37. Business broadband penetration will lag behind residential
- 38. Spend on business network services tends to increase in line with macroeconomic growth
- 39. Document map - Individual market trends
- 40. Key trends in Bulgaria
- 41. Outlook for major players in Bulgaria
- 42. Basic forecast indicators, Bulgaria
- 43. Key trends in the Czech Republic
- 44. Outlook for major players in the Czech Republic
- 45. Basic forecast indicators, the Czech Republic
- 46. Key trends in Estonia
- 47. Outlook for major players in Estonia
- 48. Basic forecast indicators, Estonia
- 49. Key trends in Hungary
- 50. Outlook for major players in Hungary
- 51. Basic forecast indicators, Hungary
- 52. Key trends in Latvia
- 53. Outlook for major players in Latvia
- 54. Basic forecast indicators, Latvia
- 55. Key trends in Lithuania
- 56. Outlook for major players in Lithuania
- 57. Basic forecast indicators, Lithuania
- 58. Key trends in Poland
- 59. Outlook for major players in Poland
- 60. Basic forecast indicators, Poland
- 61. Key trends in Romania
- 62. Outlook for major players in Romania
- 63. Basic forecast indicators, Romania
- 64. Key trends in Russia
- 65. Outlook for major players in Russia
- 66. Basic forecast indicators, Russia
- 67. Key trends in Slovakia
- 68. Outlook for major players in Slovakia
- 69. Basic forecast indicators, Slovakia
- 70. Key trends in Slovenia
- 71. Outlook for major players in Slovenia
- 72. Basic forecast indicators, Slovenia
- 73. Key trends in Ukraine
- 74. Outlook for major players in Ukraine
- 75. Basic forecast indicators, Ukraine
- 76. Document map - Authors, copyright and key to acronyms
- 77. Authors and acknowledgements
- 78. Copyright and disclaimer
- 79. Key to acronyms [1]
- 80. Key to acronyms [2]
- 81. Key to acronyms [3]
- 82. Document map - List of figures
- 83. List of figures [1]
- 84. List of figures [2]
- 85. List of figures [3]
- 86. List of figures [4]
- 87. List of figures [5]
- 88. List of figures [6]
- 89. List of figures [7]
- 90. List of figures [8]
- 91. Document map - About Analysys reports and services
- 92. About Analysys Mason
- 93. Report from Analysys Mason
- 94. Market intelligence services from Analysys Mason
- 95. Custom Research from Analysys Mason
