利用FMC的成功方法

Fixed- mobile convergence (FMC) has been the subject of substantial hype and confusion in the telecoms industry for many years, yet it has had relatively little impact to date. This report examines the reality of FMC today and assesses its true potential. The report covers a wide variety of FMC initiatives, including integrated pricing plans and distribution, dual-mode handsets and services (for example based on UMA) and full network integration. The report considers the factors that will determine the success of FMC and identifies which (if any) of the current FMC initiatives will succeed. The report identifies the most appropriate strategies for different types of network operators.

• What is FMC, and what are its different forms?
• Is there a future for dual-mode handsets, for example based on UMA? What are the strengths and weaknesses of early commercial services and will future developments increase the chance of success?
• What is meant by network convergence and when (if ever) should network operators evolve to converged all-IP networks based on IMS?
• What are the most effective network convergence steps that operators can take in the short term?
• How can integrated pricing plans be used to achieve the benefits of FMC without undertaking major network developments?

• Mobile-only, fixed-only and integrated network operators: senior executives, product managers and technology executives, to understand the importance of different types of FMC and the benefits they can bring to network operators and their customers.
• Handset and network equipment vendors: senior executives, technology strategists and product developers, to assess the realistic potential for dual-mode handset solutions, for example based on UMA, and network convergence.
• Content and application providers: senior executives and product managers, to understand the opportunities presented by integrating the pricing plans of fixed and mobile services.
• Regulators: to identify emerging trends in FMC and the implications for customers and different types of network operator.
• Investors: to understand the likely successes and failures in FMC and the strategies that different types of organisations should be adopting with FMC.

• 0. Summary
• 1. Network operators need to take a fresh look at the options for FMC
• 2. FMC can take different forms, but will only succeed when it benefits both end users and operators
  • 2.1 Most network operators will offer services over both fixed and mobile access networks
  • 2.2 Different types of network operator may have different approaches to FMC
  • 2.3 If FMC initiatives are to succeed, there must be compelling benefits for end users, and targeted marketing will be critical
  • 2.4 If FMC initiatives are to succeed, they must not introduce major new drawbacks for end users
  • 2.5 If FMC initiatives are to succeed, there must be strong benefits for network operators
  • 2.6 There are different types of FMC, with different levels of implementation complexity
• 3. Early device convergence using UMA dual-mode voice handsets has had limited success
  • 3.1 UMA-based voice services are at the forefront of early device convergence
  • 3.2 Most UMA services have failed to achieve significant take-up
  • 3.3 Early consumer UMA services are undermined by product and marketing weaknesses, and face strong competition
  • 3.4 High up-front costs have limited the adoption of dual-mode handset solutions by enterprises
• 4. Device convergence will improve but cellular-only services will still have the edge in many markets
  • 4.1 Improvements will enhance the attractiveness of UMA-based dual-mode handset services for end users
  • 4.2 Other UMA developments could hinder the take-up of dual-mode handset services
  • 4.3 SIP and IMS cause further uncertainty over the future prospects for UMA
  • 4.4 Cellular-only services will also improve, countering advances in UMA-based dual-mode handset services
  • 4.5 Dual-mode handset voice services will be limited to a small number of integrated operators in particular countries
  • 4.6 There may be future opportunities for device convergence with data services, although femtocells could be an alternative
• 5. Operators will need both fixed and mobile access, but not necessarily fully converged networks
  • 5.1 All network operators will need fixed and mobile access
  • 5.2 Different degrees of network convergence are possible
  • 5.3 The challenges and costs of complete network convergence will deter most operators until at least 2015
  • 5.4 Operators need to focus on pragmatic network convergence and seek opportunities with market convergence
• 6. There are major opportunities in marketing convergence for network operators and other organisations
  • 6.1 Marketing convergence can avoid the need for device and network convergence and is not limited to network operators
  • 6.2 Mobile-only operators are beginning to apply marketing convergence as they embrace fixed broadband services
  • 6.3 There are opportunities for marketing convergence around fixed and mobile broadband data services
  • 6.4 Success with marketing convergence will require strong distribution channels and the right network economics
  • 6.5 Operators must take account of the limitations of marketing convergence
  • 6.6 FMC initiatives must be driven by company strategy, not network strategy, and must meet customer requirements

Actions

• Figure 0.1: The three levels of FMC
• Figure 2.1: Market research indicating that saving money would be a key motivation for customers to adopt FMC solutions
• Figure 2.2: Market research indicating that costs would be a deterrent to customers adopting FMC solutions
• Figure 2.3: The three levels of FMC
• Figure 3.1: Number of customers for UMA FMC services from BT (UK), Deutsche Telekom (Germany) and France Telecom (France), June 2005 to June 2007
• Figure 3.2: Estimated cost per user of upgrading a company network to support dual-mode handset voice services
• Figure 4.1: Decline in mobile voice spend per minute for selected countries, 1Q 2005 to 4Q 2006
• Figure 5.1: Fully converged network architecture
• Table 2.1: Examples of FMC initiatives by a variety of network operators
• Table 2.2: Characteristics of the different levels of FMC
• Table 3.1: Examples of device convergence services using UMA