西欧的FMS

Abstract

Voice traffic is migrating from fixed to mobile networks worldwide but the extent and rate of this migration vary widely between countries. Fixed- Mobile Substitution in Western Europe: causes and effects quantifies the true scale of fixed- mobile substitution (FMS) in Western Europe, in terms of fixed-line substitution and the migration of voice minutes from fixed to mobile networks. The report considers a wide range of key metrics, such as the proportion of households that are mobile-only; the proportion of voice traffic originating on a mobile network; voice usage per capita; voice spend per capita; fixed and mobile voice spend per minute; and the price premium of mobile voice over fixed voice. The report assesses how these metrics have changed over a two-year period, to provide insight into the rate of FMS and its effects.

Based on a wealth of fixed, mobile and demographic data, the report determines the root causes of FMS, identifies how mobile and fixed operators' actions have accelerated or decelerated FMS, and provides definitive guidance on actions that mobile, fixed and integrated network operators can take to address the immediate opportunities and threats presented by FMS.

Fixed- Mobile Substitution in Western Europe: causes and effects answers your key questions:

• What is the real extent of FMS in individual Western European markets, in terms of the displacement of fixed voice lines and in terms of fixed and mobile networks' respective share of total voice traffic and revenue?
• What are the reasons for the substantial differences in the extent of FMS in different markets across Western Europe?
• What are the key factors that dictate the extent and speed of FMS in a particular market? What is the impact of absolute price levels, the relative pricing of fixed and mobile services, and the proportion of customers with prepaid tariffs?
• Is FMS good or bad for mobile operators?
• What actions can mobile, fixed and integrated network operators take to speed up or slow down FMS and to maximise their revenue from voice services in the context of FMS?

Who should read this report

• Mobile network operators: understand the current extent of FMS, its implications for revenue, and the steps that can be taken to maximise the benefits, and minimise the risks, of FMS.
• Fixed network operators: assess the potential damage and timescales of FMS and identify actions that can be taken to slow FMS and minimise its effects on revenue.
• Integrated network operators: understand how FMS affects the voice traffic and revenue of fixed and mobile networks and identify strategies for maximising overall return.
• Regulators: understand the changing landscape of voice services as fixed lines are displaced and voice traffic migrates from fixed to mobile networks.
• Financial analysts and investors: understand the speed and extent of FMS and its consequences for fixed and mobile networks.

Table of Contents

• Executive summary
• Introduction
• The status of FMS in Western Europe
• Factors that influence the extent and rate of FMS
• Implications of FMS and recommendations for operators
• Individual country assessments
• Actions

Figures and tables

• Figure 1: Fixed and mobile connections in Western Europe, March 2004- March 2006
• Figure 2: Proportion of households in Western Europe that were mobile-only, December 2003- December 2005
• Figure 3: Proportion of voice traffic in Western Europe that was mobile-originated, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Figure 4: Volume of fixed-originated and mobile-originated voice traffic in Western Europe, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Figure 5: Volume of fixed and mobile voice traffic in Western Europe, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Figure 6: Spend on fixed and mobile voice services in Western Europe, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Figure 7: Average spend per minute on fixed and mobile voice services in Western Europe, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Figure 8: Breakdown of spend on fixed voice services in Western Europe, 1Q 2004 and 1Q 2006
• Figure 9: Proportion of households in Western Europe that were mobile-only, by country, December 2003- December 2005
• Figure 10: Proportion of voice traffic in Western Europe that was mobile-originated, by country, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Figure 11: Change in overall voice usage and spend in Western Europe, by country, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Figure 12: Change in fixed voice usage and spend in Western Europe, by country, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Figure 13: Relationship between the proportion of voice traffic that was mobile-originated and average mobile voice spend per minute in Western Europe, by country, 1Q 2006
• Figure 14: Relationship between the proportion of voice traffic that was mobile-originated and the mobile price premium in Western Europe, by country, 1Q 2006
• Figure 15: Relationship between the proportion of households that were mobile-only and the mobile price premium in Western Europe, by country, 1Q 2006
• Figure 16: Growth in Internet penetration in selected Western European countries, December 2001- December 2006
• Figure 17: Relationship between mobile voice usage and the proportion of contract customers in Spain, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Figure 18: Growth in the proportion of households that were mobile-only in selected Western European countries, December 2001- December 2005
• Figure 19: Relationship between GDP per capita and the proportion of households that were mobile-only in Western Europe and CEE, by country, December 2005
• Figure 20: Relationship between the average number of people per household and the proportion of households that were mobile-only in Western Europe, by country, December 2005
• Figure 21: Relationship between the average annual temperature and the proportion of voice traffic that was mobile-originated in Western Europe, by country, 1Q 2006
• Figure 22: Relationship between mobile voice spend per capita and the proportion of households that were mobile-only in Western Europe, by country, December 2005
• Figure 23: Relationship between mobile voice spend per capita and the proportion of voice traffic that was mobile-originated in Western Europe, by country, 1Q 2006
• Figure 24: Changes in average spend per minute, voice usage and ASPU for mobile voice services in selected Western European countries, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Figure 25: Relationship between the proportion of households that were mobile-only and the proportion of voice traffic that was mobile-originated in Western Europe, by country, 1Q 2006
• Figure 26: Spend per capita on fixed and mobile voice services in selected Western European countries, 1Q 2006
• Figure 27: Average spend per minute, voice usage and ASPU for mobile voice services in Western Europe, by country, 1Q 2006
• Figure 28: Volume of fixed voice calls in Western Europe, by type of call, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Figure 29: Spend on fixed voice calls in Western Europe, by type of call, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Figure 30: Fixed and mobile voice usage per capita in Western Europe, by country, 1Q 2006
• Figure 31: Changes in fixed voice usage and spend in selected Western European countries, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Table 1: Factors influencing the extent and rate of FMS in Western Europe
• Table 2: Comparison of mobile voice pricing and FMS in three types of Western European market
• Table 3: FMS metrics for Western Europe, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Table 4: FMS metrics for Austria, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Table 5: FMS metrics for Belgium, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Table 6: FMS metrics for Denmark, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Table 7: FMS metrics for Finland, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Table 8: FMS metrics for France, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Table 9: FMS metrics for Germany, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Table 10: FMS metrics for Greece, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Table 11: FMS metrics for Ireland, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Table 12: FMS metrics for Italy, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Table 13: FMS metrics for the Netherlands, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Table 14: FMS metrics for Norway, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Table 15: FMS metrics for Portugal, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Table 16: FMS metrics for Spain, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Table 17: FMS metrics for Sweden, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Table 18: FMS metrics for Switzerland, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006
• Table 19: FMS metrics for the UK, 1Q 2004- 1Q 2006