英国原子能源设备建设计画：2008年至2018年

Abstract

On the 14th July 2008, AMA Research will publish the 1st Edition of the UK Nuclear Energy Construction Programme Report. Following the UK Government' s decision in early 2008 to support investment in nuclear energy, the report should be of particular interest to companies and institutional investors, and provides a comprehensive and easy to use review of the nuclear energy construction sector.

Key areas in the Report :

• An overall review of the nuclear energy market in the UK and analysis of reactors still in operation.
• A review of the UK' s programme of decommissioning and clean-up of nuclear power stations.
• An in-depth analysis of the nuclear new-build programme including the estimated costs and timetable for construction, key players involved and an overview of the four reactor designs already submitted for approval
• A review of the key issues affecting the nuclear new-build programme including the planning system, siting of new reactors, costs involved, project timescales procurement issues etc.

Areas of particular interest:

• The £15+ billion nuclear new-build programme will make the nuclear sector potentially the fastest growing construction sector and create a wide range of opportunities.
• With nuclear energy back on the Government' s agenda, the report explores the market opportunities ahead for the construction industry and the wider supply chain.
• The decommissioning market in the UK alone is worth an estimated £73bn over the next 100 years over 20 civil nuclear sites.
• Overview of risk factors surrounding the construction of a new generation of nuclear power plants include: combating climate change and ensuring secure energy supplies; safety and security of plants; the management of waste and the risk of cost over-runs.
• Forecasts of project timescales and costs for both new build and decommissioning.

Key areas covered in the report include:

OVERVIEW OF NUCLEAR ENERGY MARKET IN THE UK

• History of nuclear energy provision in the UK - current provision, mix of systems.
• Current energy supplies in the UK - current role of nuclear and alternative fuels.
• Future of nuclear power in the UK.
• UK' s decommissioning and nuclear waste programme and the future of decommissioning in the UK - market size and split by operators, timescales forecasts etc.

NUCLEAR POWER STATION BUILD PROGRAMME IN THE UK

• Background to the Programme - political, alternative sources etc.
• Government energy strategy and the need for new nuclear reactors - decision in early 2008 to commit to a major programme of development, factors underpinning the decision to proceed.
• Estimated timetable for the Programme - Phases 1-3 from 2006-18 - Preparation, Planning and Construction.
• Key players involved in the Programme and an overview of the four new reactor designs submitted for regulatory approval.
• Estimated costs of the Programme - plant and equipment, civil engineering, project management.

FACTORS AFFECTING THE NUCLEAR ENERGY MARKET

• The planning system and available land and sites for the new reactors - analysis of proposed changes to the planning system as outlined in the Planning White Paper to facilitate the development and construction of new nuclear power stations.
• Legislative drivers - a review of the Nuclear Power White Paper.
• Procurement Issues and the formation of PFI-style consortia to deliver the new nuclear stations.
• Skill shortages and the capability of UK industry to deliver the new nuclear reactors.
• Overview of key risk factors surrounding the Programme - Risk of accident, safety aspects of modern nuclear power stations, flood risk management, cost overruns etc.

CONSTRUCTION MARKET SUPPLY IN THE NUCLEAR ENERGY SECTOR

• Value of the nuclear energy sector to the construction industry and future market opportunities for construction and engineering companies and the wider supply chain.
• Analysis of the nuclear market supply chain - key Tiers and players in the sector.
• Available construction experience and capability in the nuclear power sector.
• Key contractors operating in the nuclear power market.
• Forecasts of market growth - timescales, costs, planning, etc.

Table of Contents

1. INTRODUCTION

2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

3. THE NUCLEAR POWER MARKET IN THE UK

• 3.1 HISTORY OF NUCLEAR POWER PROVISION IN THE UK
• 3.2 CURRENT NUCLEAR POWER PROVISION
• 3.3 CURRENT ENERGY SUPPLIES IN THE UK
• 3.4 THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR POWER
• 3.5 DECOMMISSIONING AND NUCLEAR WASTE PROGRAMME
  • 3.5.1 Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA)
  • 3.5.2 Future of Decommissioning in the UK

4. NUCLEAR POWER STATION BUILD PROGRAMME

• 4.1 BACKGROUND TO THE PROGRAMME
• 4.2 GOVERNMENT ENERGY STRATEGY AND THE NEED FOR NEW REACTORS
  • 4.2.1 Energy Needs
  • 4.2.2 Closure of Coal-fired Plants
  • 4.2.3 Climate Change and Carbon Emissions
  • 4.2.4 Security & Availability of Future Energy Supplies
• 4.3 ESTIMATED TIMETABLE FOR THE PROGRAMME
• 4.4 KEY PLAYERS INVOLVED IN THE PROGRAMME
  • 4.4.1 AREVA
  • 4.4.2 Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd (AECL)
  • 4.4.3 BNFL
  • 4.4.4 British Energy
  • 4.4.5 EDF Group
  • 4.4.6 E.ON.
  • 4.4.7 General Electric
  • 4.4.8 UKAEA
  • 4.4.9 Westinghouse
• 4.5 ESTIMATED COSTS OF THE PROGRAMME
  • 4.5.1 Capital and Operating Costs

5. FACTORS AFFECTING THE NUCLEAR POWER MARKET

• 5.1 PLANNING
  • 5.1.1 Available Land & Sites for New Reactors
  • 5.1.2 Planning Delays
• 5.2 LEGISLATIVE DRIVERS
  • 5.2.1 Nuclear Power White Paper
• 5.3 SKILL SHORTAGES
• 5.4 PROCUREMENT ISSUES
• 5.5 MAJOR CONCERNS SURROUNDING THE NEW BUILD PROGRAMME
  • 5.5.1 Risk of Accident
  • 5.5.2 Safety Aspects of Modern Nuclear Power Stations
  • 5.5.3 Flood Risk Management

6. CONSTRUCTION MARKET SUPPLY IN THE NUCLEAR POWER SECTOR

• 6.1 VALUE OF THE NUCLEAR POWER SECTOR TO THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY
  • 6.1.2 The Nuclear Market Supply Chain
• 6.2 AVAILABLE CONSTRUCTION EXPERIENCE & CAPABILITY IN THE NUCLEAR POWER SECTOR
• 6.3 KEY CONTRACTOR PROFILES
• APPENDIX 1

TABLES AND CHARTS

• TABLE 1 NEW NUCLEAR POWER - THE 4 CONTENDING REACTOR DESIGNS CAPACITY, DESIGN LIFE, CONSTRUCTION TIMES AND MANUFACTURERS
• TABLE 2 NUCLEAR POWER STATIONS CURRENTLY OPERATING IN THE UK - CAPACITY AND PLANNED CLOSURE DATES
• CHART 3 ELECTRICITY GENERATION MIX - SHARE BY FUEL TYPE 2007
• CHART 4 DOMESTIC ELECTRICITY MARKET SHARES - MARCH 2006
• CHART 5 GROWTH IN ESTIMATED LIFETIME COSTS OF DECOMMISSIONING NDA SITES (£BN) 2003-2007
• CHART 6 MARKET SIZE FOR DECOMMISSIONING TO 2100 - BNFL, UKAEA AND MAGNOX SITES
• TABLE 7 CLOSED NUCLEAR POWER STATIONS IN THE UK (CAPACITY/CLOSURE DATES)
• CHART 8 POSSIBLE FUTURE ELECTRICITY GENERATION MIX BY FUEL TYPE 2025 (GAS, NUCLEAR, RENEWABLES, COAL, OTHERS)
• CHART 9 EXISTING COAL FLEET DECLINE 2007 TO 2025
• TABLE 10 CARBON EMISSIONS OF GENERATING TECHNOLOGIES - NUCLEAR, WIND, BIOMASS, NATURAL GAS, COAL AND LIGNITE
• CHART 11 FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES-TO-PRODUCTION RATIOS (YEARS) - BY FUEL AND REGION
• TABLE 12 ESTIMATED TIMEFRAME FOR BUILDING NEW NUCLEAR REACTORS - PHASES 1-3, 2006-2018
• CHART 13 ROUTE TO POSSIBLE NEW NUCLEAR POWER STATIONS 2007 - 2020 (PLANNING AND CONSTRUCTION)
• CHART 14 BREAKDOWN OF PROFESSIONAL SERVICES NEEDED FOR NUCLEAR PLANT CONSTRUCTION
• TABLE 15 ESTIMATED CONSTRUCTION COSTS OF NUCLEAR POWER STATIONS - BREAKDOWN BY KEY ELEMENTS
• CHART 16 COST PROFILE OF NUCLEAR POWER VS. GAS-FIRED GENERATION (%) - MIX BY CAPITAL, O&M, FUEL AND ' BACK-END' .
• TABLE 17 IMPACT OF FUTURE EXTREME WATER LEVELS AT MAJOR NUCLEAR SITES
• TABLE 18 MEASURES REQUIRED FOR FUTURE FLOOD DEFENCE AND COASTAL PROTECTION AT BRITISH ENERGY SITES
• CHART 19 NUCLEAR WORK - MARKET VALUE TO THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY TO 2035
• TABLE 20 ESTIMATED MARKET OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONTRACTORS IN THE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY TO 2035
• TABLE 21 CONSTRUCTION SUPPLY CHAIN IN THE NUCLEAR SECTOR - KEY TIERS AND PLAYERS
• TABLE 22 NUCLEAR POWER SECTOR - GLOSSARY OF TERMS