风力发电动向（第4版）：2007年

Abstract

The leading wind power countries in 2006 Until 2006 the wind energy industry was dominated by five countries which had a history of developing wind technology and manufacturing capability; Denmark, USA, Germany, Spain and India. In 2006 China became significant and will be increasingly important in world markets in the future. 65% of the world' s wind power capacity was installed in Europe in 2006, compared with 69% in 2005, and 18% in North America compared with 17% in the previous year.

A second tier of wind energy countries has now emerged and seven have over 1,000 MW installed; Japan, Italy, United Kingdom, Portugal, France, Netherlands and Canada. Another two can now be included in this category because they have likely become eligible by mid 2007, these are Austria and Australia

Seas. It is expected that the first pilot projects will come into operation no earlier than 2008. An Offshore Foundation with membership from manufacturers, government, associations and grid operators started activities in summer 2005 to support the development.

Table of Contents

1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Wind power development
• Industry issues
• Capacity factors
• Intermittency or variability of wind
• Mis-match of supply and demand
• Inadequacy of weather forecasting
• The difficulty of balancing the grid because of the variability of wind
• Demands on the grid
• Credit capacity
• Wind, a part of a portfolio of generating sources
• Size of wind carpets
• Issues for wind power

2. THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIND ENERGY AND THE MARKET IN 2006

• The global market in 2006
• The leading wind power countries in 2006
• Europe
• North America
• Latin America
• Asia
• Pacific
• Africa and Middle East

3. THE FUTURE MARKET FOR WIND POWER

4. AN ASSESSMENT OF FACTORS AFFECTING WIND POWER

• Terminology
  • Base load
  • Intermittency and variability
  • Capacity factor
  • Capacity credit
  • Spinning reserve
• Issues for wind power
  • Grid balancing
  • Storage
  • Grid extension
  • Capacity credit
  • Mis-match of supply and demand
  • Load following
  • Dispersion
  • Inadequacy of weather forecasting
  • Spinning reserve/back-up
• The operational experiences of wind power
  • E.On Netz Wind Report, 2004
  • Grid balancing
  • Grid balancing congestion
  • E.On Netz Wind Report, 2005
  • E.On conclusions about wind power
  • Western Denmark 2005
  • ESB report in Ireland 2004
  • USA experience
  • Spain
  • Reduction in carbon emissions
  • Contribution and target of renewables in reducing carbon emissions
  • UCTE position paper on wind power
  • Main characteristics of wind power
  • Availability of supply

5. NATIONAL POLICIES FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY

• Renewable energy targets
• Feed-in tariffs and RPS
• EU and feed-in tariffs
• US and RPS
• The feed-in tariff in Europe
• The evolution of RPS Policy in the United States
• Comparison of feed-in tariffs and RPS
• Europe - the EU Renewable Energy Directive
• Investor confidence, price, and policy cost
• Effectiveness
• Innovation and technology diversity
• Ownership structure
• Conclusion
• Feed-in tariffs in the United States

6. NATIONAL WIND POWER MARKETS AND SUPPORT PLANS TOP 6

• Denmark
  • Market size and forecast
  • Geographical dispersion of wind turbines in Denmark
  • Production of electricity from wind turbines
  • Wind turbine size and repowering
  • Future targets in Denmark
  • Interface with other renewables
  • Wind power ownership
  • The energy policy role of power companies
  • Power companies' ownership of wind power
  • Pricing for wind power
  • Special rules for private (individual or co-operative) owners
  • Grid connection, grid reinforcement
  • Wind resources
  • Wind generation structure
  • Offshore wind power
• R&D technology development in Denmark
  • The role of Risoe National Laboratory and others
  • The role of power companies in R&D
  • New concepts
  • Offshore projects
  • Government support
  • Funding Levels
  • Ministry of Environment and Energy' s Energy Research Programme (EFP)
  • Ministry of Environment and Energy' s Programme for Development, Demonstration and
  • Information on Renewable Energy (UVE)
  • Priorities
  • Legislation
  • Windmill Law
  • Energy 21
  • Danish Energy Agency
  • Electricity reform
  • Export assistance
  • Renewable energy island
  • Promotion of local initiatives
• Danish manufacturing base
  • The Danish Wind Industry Association lists of "Core" Members
• Germany
  • Market size and forecast
  • Market share in Germany
  • Repowering trend
  • Offshore potential
  • Wind turbine size
  • Regional distribution of wind turbines
  • Wind power and the German TSOs
• Government support and R&D in Germany
  • Stromeinspeisungsgesetz - Electricity Feed Law (EFL)
  • Renewable Energy Sources Act (Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz / EEG)
  • Renewable Energy Law
  • Investment assistance
  • Planning privileges
  • 250 Megawatt Programme
  • REISI - A new and further-reaching Information System based on ISEE and WISY
  • Technology area wind energy
  • Product information
  • Development of wind energy use in Germany
  • Operational results
  • External conditions of operation
  • Download of measured data
  • El Dorado
  • Regional incentives
  • Research and Development (R&D)
  • Manufacturing Base
• Spain
  • Future targets for wind power in Spain
  • Annual investment in wind power
  • Manufacturing industry
  • Wind developers
  • Wind turbine size
• Government support in Spain
  • R&D Technology development
  • Guaranteed market price
  • Fixed tariff option
  • Market option
  • Research projects
• United States
  • The start of wind power
  • Market size and forecast
  • Intermittency
  • Manufacturers
  • Low speed wind technology
  • Cost of wind energy generation
  • Technology development in the USA
  • 1. Making longer, stronger blades
  • 2. Designing taller towers
  • 3. Building multi-megawatt turbines
  • Understanding turbulent wind patterns
  • Research and Development
  • Offshore wind development
  • Government support
  • Investment tax credits
  • Production tax credits
  • Property tax reductions
  • Accelerated depreciation
  • Direct production incentives
  • Direct investment incentives (grants)
  • Government subsidised loans
  • "Standard offer contracts" for small and distributed projects
  • Net metering or net billing
  • Site prospecting, review and permitting
  • Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS)
  • Auctioned contracts
  • Green marketing/pricing
  • State mandates
  • Research and Development
• Manufacturing Base
  • Major manufacturers
  • Small wind turbine manufacturers
  • The Utility Wind Interest Group
  • UWIG members 2006
• India
  • Market size and forecast
  • Future targets
  • Wind energy resources in India
  • Cost
• R&D Technology development in India
  • The Centre for Wind Energy Technology (C-WET)
• Government support
  • MNES - Ministry of Non-conventional Energy Sources
  • IREDA - Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Ltd
  • Financial incentives have also been provided for investors
  • State incentives
  • Manufacturing base
  • Suzlon
  • Wind Energy Producers Association (WINPRO)
  • Indian Wind Turbine Manufacturers Association (IWTMA)
  • Turbine and component suppliers
• China
  • Installed wind capacity
  • Past performance and obstacles to wind power
  • Future targets
  • Wind resources
  • Market size
  • Table 6.10: Wind turbine distribution in China by province 2005
  • Offshore wind power
  • Wind turbine size
  • Renewable Energy Law 2006
  • Chinese government wind development support
  • Wind power concessions
  • "Ride the Wind" (Chengfeng) programme
  • National Debt Programme
  • 863 Wind Programme
  • Costs
  • Foreign assistance
  • Chinese manufacturing capability
  • Medium and large wind turbines
  • Chinese wind turbine companies
  • Xinjiang Goldwind Co
  • Other Chinese wind companies
  • Micro and small wind turbines

7. NATIONAL WIND POWER MARKETS AND SUPPORT PLANS INTERMEDIATE COUNTRIES - EUROPE

• Austria
  • National renewable energy targets
  • Market shares in Austria
• France
• Greece
  • Wind resources
  • Size of wind turbines
  • Manufacturing capability
  • Government support
• Ireland
  • Government support
  • Wind resources
  • Variability
• Italy
  • Government policy 2007
  • Regional plans
  • Renewable energy policy
  • Legal commitment to renewable energy
  • Italian manufacturers
  • Wind developers
  • Wind turbine size
• Netherlands
  • National renewable energy targets
  • Offshore developments in the Netherlands
  • Repowering
  • Government policies, financial incentives and market stimulation
  • Amendments in 2005 and 2006
  • Manufacturers
• Norway
  • Government support
  • Wind power companies
• Portugal
  • Wind capacity
  • Renewables target
  • Geographical distribution of wind capacity
  • Government support
  • Manufacturers
  • Wind developers
• Sweden
  • Government support
  • Manufacturers
  • Wind developers
• United Kingdom
  • Wind resources
  • Wind resources
  • Future development
  • Future targets
  • Offshore wind power
  • Round 1
  • Round 2
  • Government support
  • Grid extension
  • Manufacturing Base

8. NATIONAL WIND POWER MARKETS AND SUPPORT PLANS INTERMEDIATE COUNTRIES - ASIA PACIFIC

• Australia
  • Wind energy resources
  • Government renewables policy and support
  • State initiatives
  • Manufacturing base
  • Corporate initiatives
• Japan
  • Environmental and renewables policy
  • Technical issues
  • Future target for wind power
  • Government programmes
  • Manufacturing base
  • Costs
  • Wind farm developments
  • R&D
• Korea, ROK
  • Future targets
  • Constraints to development
  • Manufacturing base
  • Wind developers
  • Government support
• Taiwan
  • Future development
  • Wind resources
  • Governement support

9. NATIONAL WIND POWER MARKETS AND SUPPORT PLANS INTERMEDIATE COUNTRIES - AFRICA

• Egypt
  • Future wind targets
  • Government support
  • Wind resources
• Morocco
  • Future wind target
  • Wind resource

10. NATIONAL WIND POWER MARKETS AND SUPPORT PLANS INTERMEDIATE COUNTRIES - AMERICAS

• Argentina
• Brazil
  • Future wind developments
  • Wind resources
  • Government promotion of renewables
  • Manufacturers
  • Wind developers
• Canada
  • Future wind development
  • R&D in Canada
  • Federal government production incentive
  • Wind Power Production Incentive (WPPI)
  • Provincial incentives
  • Programme operation
  • Terms of the incentive
  • Amount of financial incentive for the ten-year period by commissioning date

11. WIND FARM DEVELOPERS AND OWNERS

12. ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF WIND ENERGY COMPARED WITH OTHER FORMS OF ENERGY

13. MANUFACTURING BASE

• The top nine wind turbine companies
  • Vestas
  • GE Energy
  • Gamesa
  • Enercon
  • Siemens
  • Suzlon
  • REpower Systems
  • Mitsubishi
  • Nordex

14. OFFSHORE WIND POWER - THE NEW FRONTIER

• Operating offshore wind farms
• The benefits
• The challenges, offshore: costs
• Forecasting a new technology - Experience Curves and Progress Ratios (PR)

15. DEVELOPMENT OF WIND TURBINE SIZE

Figures

• Figure 2.1 Global wind power installed capacity MW 1990-2006
• Figure 2.2: Installed wind power capacity of the six leading countries MW, 2002 to 2006
• Figure 2.3: Installed wind power capacity of the eight intermediate countries MW, 2002 to 2006
• Figure 2.4 Wind power installed in Europe, 2006
• Figure 2.5 Installed wind generating capacity in the USA, 2006 by state MW
• Figure 3.1 Forecast of global wind energy development to 2010
• Figure 4.1 Wind capacity factors by month for Denmark, Sweden, Germany, Netherlands
• Figure 4.2 The contribution of wind power to covering peak load in 2003.
• Figure 4.3 Fluctuations in wind power feed-in.
• Figure 4.4 Rapid decrease in wind power feed-in
• Figure 4.5 Wind below forecast
• Figure 4.6 Wind continues to blow longer than forecast
• Figure 5.1: National renewable energy policies in EU countries
• Figure 5.2: US states with RPS regulations, 2007
• Figure 6.1: Wind generating capacity of the top 6 wind markets, MW, 1990 to 2010
• Figure 6.2 Growth of the wind power market in Denmark, 1980-2006
• Figure 6.3: Location of wind and CHP plants in Denmark
• Figure 6.4: Capacity and production of wind power electricity in Denmark, 1977 to 2006
• Figure 6.5: Number of wind turbines and capacity in Denmark (MW), 1977 to 2007
• Figure 6.6: Generation of electricity from biomass in Denmark, GWh, 1980 to 2004
• Figure 6.7 Danish exports by country of destination, 2005 and 2006
• Figure 6.8 Growth of Danish wind turbine sales 1984-2006
• Figure 6.9 Growth of the wind power market in Germany 1990-2006
• Figure 6.10 Market share of annual sales in Germany, 2006
• Figure 6.11: Annual onshore, offshore build and repowering in Germany, MW, 1993 to 2020
• Figure 6.12: Installed capacity, onshore, offshore and repowering in Germany, MW, 1993 to 2020
• Figure 6.13 Trend in wind turbine sizes in Germany, 1997-2007 (1st half)
• Figure 6.14: Number of wind turbines by region, Germany, July 2007
• Figure 6.15 Map of regional distribution of wind turbines MW in Germany, by turbine capacity July 2007
• Figure 6.16 Share of coastal and interior states in annual installation capacity, Germany 1993-2005
• Figure 6.17 Market share of installed capacity in Germany, 2005 MW
• Figure 6.18 The growth of the wind power market in Spain 1990-2006
• Figure 6.19: Objectives for wind power development to 2010
• Figure 6.20 Regional distribution of wind power capacity, December 2006
• Figure 6.21: Aerial view of a mountain wind farm in Spain
• Figure 6.22 Annual investment in wind power in Spain, 1994-2002, € ‘000
• Figure 6.23 Market share of manufacturers in Spain, December 2006, MW
• Figure 6.24 Spanish wind developers' share, 2007
• Figure 6.25 Growth in wind power capacity in the United States 1980-2006
• Figure 6.26 Capacity of grid-connected wind power plants in the US, December 2006
• Figure 6.27 Market share of installations in the USA in 2006
• Figure 6.28 Wind resource in USA
• Figure 6.29 Cost of wind energy 1980 to 2006
• Figure 6.30 Wind turbine rotor blade
• Figure 6.31 Advanced tower design
• Figure 6.32 The growth of wind power capacity in India 1980-2006
• Figure 6.33 Map of installed wind power in India by state, 2006
• Figure 6.34: Objectives of wind power development in India to 2010
• Figure 6.35: Wind resources of India
• Figure 6.36 Market share of manufacturers in India, 2007, MW
• Figure 6.37 Installed wind power capacity in China, 1990-2006
• Figure 6.38: Chinese wind potential by region
• Figure 6.39 Market share of manufacturers in China, 2007, MW
• Figure 7.1 Installed wind power capacity in Austria, 1990-2006, MW
• Figure 7.2 Market shares of wind turbine manufacturers in Austria, 2006
• Figure 7.3 Installed wind power capacity in France, 1990-2006, MW
• Figure 7.4 Installed wind power capacity in Greece, 1990-2006, MW
• Figure 7.5: Distribution of wind plants in Greece by region, 2006
• Figure 7.6: Market shares of wind turbine manufacturers in Greece, 2006
• Figure 7.7 Installed wind power capacity in Ireland, 1990-2006, MW
• Figure 7.8 Installed wind power capacity in Italy, 1990-2006, MW
• Figure 7.9: Wind power capacity by region in Italy, December 2006
• Figure 7.10 Market share of installed wind turbines manufacturers in Italy 2006, MW
• Figure 7.11 Installed wind power capacity in Netherlands, 1990-2006, MW
• Figure 7.12: Wind plants in the Netherlands
• Figure 7.13 Market share of installed wind turbines in Netherlands 2006, MW
• Figure 7.14 Installed wind power capacity in Norway, 1990-2006, MW
• Figure 7.15 Installed wind power capacity in Portugal, 1990-2006, MW
• Figure 7.16: Regional distribution of wind installations in Portugal, 2006
• Figure 7.17: Market share of installed wind turbines manufacturers in Portugal 2006, MW
• Figure 7.18 Installed wind power capacity in Sweden, 1990-2006, MW
• Figure 7.19 Growth in wind power capacity in the United Kingdom, 1990-2006, MW
• Figure 7.20 Round 1 offshore wind farms in the UK
• Figure 7.21 Round 2 offshore wind farms in the UK
• Figure 8.1 Installed wind power capacity in Australia, 1990-2006, MW
• Figure 8.2 Installed wind power capacity in Japan, 1990-2006, MW
• Figure 8.3 Installed wind power capacity in Korea, 1990-2006, MW
• Figure 8.4 Installed wind power capacity in Taiwan, 1990-2006, MW
• Figure 9.1 Installed wind power capacity in Egypt, 1990-2006, MW
• Figure 9.2 Installed wind power capacity in Morocco, 1990-2006, MW
• Figure 10.1 The growth of wind power capacity in Brazil 2004-2006
• Figure 10.2 The growth of wind power capacity in Canada 1990-2006
• Figure 11.1: Top 20 wind energy owners in the world, 2006
• Figure 13.1 Global market shares on the wind turbine manufacturers in 2004 to 2006
• Figure 13.2: Vestas revenue 2001 to 2006 € millions
• Figure 14.1: Offshore wind installations by country MW, 2006
• Figure 14.2 Off-shore wind park
• Figure 14.3 Wind turbine evolution
• Figure 15.1 Increase in turbine size, world average, 1997-2005 (kW)
• Figure 15.2: Increase in turbine sizes by country, kW, 1997-2006 (kW)
• Figure 15.3: 5 MW REpower Systems wind turbines in transit in the Scottish North Sea
• Figure 15.4: 5 MW REpower Systems wind turbines installed in the Scottish North Sea

Tables

• Table 2.1 Installed wind generating capacity, 1990, 1995, 2000- 2006, MW
• Table 3.1 National forecasts of wind energy development 2006 to 2010
• Table 4.1 Typical capacity factors for different generating technologies.
• Table 5.1 EU renewables support schemes
• Table 5.2 Non-EU countries with renewable energy targets
• Table 5.3 Countries with feed-in policies for renewables
• Table 5.4 Cumulative number of countries/states/provinces enacting RPS policies
• Table 5.5: State RPS resource tiers
• Table 6.1 Wind turbines installed base in Germany end December 2006, June 2007
• Table 6.2 Shares of wind turbines by power group in the potential annual energy yield, Germany, 1989 to 2007
• Table 6.3: National and autonomous-region targets for wind energy 2010 to 2019, MW
• Table 6.4 Wind power plants in the USA
• Table 6.5: Major manufacturers of large wind turbines in the United States
• Table 6.6 Installed capacity of wind power by state 2002 and 2003
• Table 6.7 Economics of a typical wind farm in India
• Table 6.8 Loan schemes offered by IREDA for development of wind power
• Table 6.9 Manufacturers approved by MNES, India
• Table 6.10: Wind turbine distribution in China by province 2005
• Table 7.1 Project analysis in UK, 2003-04
• Table 7.2 Operational grid connected wind projects in the UK, 2006
• Table 7.3 New onshore wind power projects under construction in 2006
• Table 7.4 Offshore wind farms UK 2007
• Table 10.1 Wind turbines in Canada - December, 2001
• Table 12.1 Advantages and disadvantages of different types of renewable energy
• Table 13.1 World sales in 2005 and 2006, Vestas share, MW and %
• Table 14.1 Off-shore wind farms, 2007
• Table 14.2: Proposed offshore wind farms, 2007
• Table 14.3 Progress ratios for wind turbines
• Table 14.4 Technology characteristics of wind turbines